2016 NBA Playoffs: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Primer
The Atlanta Hawks will open against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday. Who will have the advantage as the 2016 NBA Playoffs continue?
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks will face each other for the third time in seven years in the postseason. The Cavaliers are 8-0 against them in that span and will look for a third consecutive sweep of Atlanta. However, the Hawks possess something the Cavaliers don’t and that is a two-dimensional post and perimeter presence by Al Horford and Paul Millsap.
Will that be the deciding factor in this series and potentially give Atlanta the edge, or will Cleveland get closer to ending their curse? Let’s take a look at the likely matchups and outcomes.
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. Jeff Teague (ATL)
Irving is currently the leading scorer in the playoffs averaging 27.5 points per game to go with 4.8 assists and 1.3 steals. He is also shooting 47 percent from three-point range. He is easily playing the best basketball of his postseason career after playing on a bad knee for most of the playoffs last season.
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He was clutch throughout the first-round series against the Detroit Pistons, potentially making the biggest energy-draining three-point shot in the history of the matchup between the long-time rivals. Irving must continue that attack in this series against the Hawks and put all the pressure on their defense and the one-on-one battle with Teague.
Teague hasn’t had the impact thus far as he did last year in the postseason. While he’s averaging 16.5 points, 6.0 assists and 0.8 steals per game, it has been the play of Millsap and Horford that has carried them to the second round. Teague is only shooting 23.8 percent from three-point range.
Unfortunately, the only thing he has been remembered for is that snafu he had during the final possession in regulation of Game 4 that forced overtime.
Perhaps guarding Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas for six games could of led to the struggles, but it won’t get any easier having to go up against Irving and his offensive onslaught.
He must improve his three-point shooting and maintain consistency throughout the series if the Hawks will have any chance of winning. But let’s be honest, Irving is playing out of his mind, and I don’t see that changing.
Advantage: Cleveland
Shooting Guard: J.R. Smith (CLE) vs. Kyle Korver (ATL)
Besides Irving, Smith was one of the most clutch players in the first round against the Pistons. Not only was he making shots from Stephen Curry range, but his hustle and ability to get open off of screens was the best that I have seen. Smith is currently averaging 13.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game.
He is shooting 51.5 percent from three-point range, which is currently eighth-best in the playoffs.
Besides Korver, he is one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA–although he does tend to miss open opportunities at times. Smith must continue to make his shots and not get too wild with his attempts. But most importantly, he must keep his attitude balanced and not get cheap technical fouls.
Korver been the unsung hero so far during the postseason. He isn’t putting up big numbers, but he has made the most of his opportunities. He is currently shooting 45 percent from three-point range and he hasn’t been too bad on the defensive boards either, averaging 5.8 rebounds per game.
So far he has been a better three-point shooter on the road at 50 percent than at home at 40 percent. That might not bode well for the Cavaliers since they have home-court advantage.
A lot of Hawks fans believe that the series would have been different last postseason if Korver didn’t injure his ankle. He will have a chance to prove that theory beginning Monday. While Smith has the better shooting percentage, Korver can be just as dangerous and a bit more consistent. Both will have to play tight one-on-one defense in order to decide this one.
Advantage: Push
Small Forward: LeBron James (CLE) vs. Kent Bazemore (ATL)
I honestly don’t think this matchup needs to even be discussed. No offense to Bazemore, but he–along with the rest of the Hawks–doesn’t stand a chance against James. Bazemore has taken on the role of DeMarre Carroll as the “energy and defensive” guy, but I don’t see how that will work with one of the best player’s in the NBA.
According to NBA.com, this is the third time that James hasn’t been in the top five in playoff scoring. He is currently ranked eighth at 22.5 points per game.
He took a back seat to Irving and Kevin Love in the first round. He allowed them to showcase their talents against an inferior Pistons team. James was close to amassing a triple-double in each game, but fell short. He will likely be playing forward and center when coach Tyronn Lue goes with his small lineup.
With Horford and Millsap expanding their games to the perimeter, he is the only one that can challenge them one-on-one.
Like Korver, Bazemore has been another one of the unheralded players that has stepped up for the Hawks. He has brought consistent toughness and doesn’t back down from anybody. According to Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com, when Bazemore was asked about having to guard James, he clearly stated how unafraid he was and ready for the challenge.
I’m sure that most player’s have to convince themselves mentally to guard James, but any tactic could be useful. Unless something drastic happens, I don’t see anyway that Bazemore will win the matchup with James.
Advantage: Cleveland
Power Forward: Kevin Love (CLE) vs. Paul Millsap (ATL)
As well as Love played against the Pistons, Millsap was the sole reason that the Hawks won some of those tough games against the Celtics. In Game 4, he had 45 points and 13 rebounds in an overtime loss. His post defense is also something that should be mentioned.
Millsap is averaging 2.7 blocks per game, which is third in the playoffs. He is also shooting 25 percent from three-point range, which is even more than his teammate Teague. He has been tough to guard for opposing forwards and I don’t see that changing against Love.
Love has been more aggressive and confident in his overall game. He is averaging 18.8 points and 12 rebounds per game–which is fourth in the playoffs. He struggled defensively against Marcus Morris and Andre Drummond in the last series and it could be the same result against Millsap.
I think Love will get a little resistance on him in the post, but on the perimeter, Millsap won’t have anything to worry about.
Advantage: Atlanta
Center: Tristan Thompson (CLE) vs Al Horford (ATL)
This is a classic case of offense vs. no offense. On the offensive side, Horford is superior to Thompson with his multi-dimensional game in the post and out on the perimeter. The no-offensive side goes to Thompson. While he is unstoppable on the offensive boards, he gets most of his points from alley-oops and putbacks.
His skills are still raw and he isn’t able to create his own shot or get separation.
In the first two games against the Pistons, Thompson had only three points and seven rebounds … total. He had trouble figuring out Drummond and didn’t play with the energy and hustle the team needed. He finally came alive in Game 3, putting up eight points and 10 rebounds.
The Hawks aren’t a rebounding threat, so he should have success on the boards.
Horford has been the most inconsistent of the Hawks. In Game 1, he had 24 points and 12 rebounds. He followed that performance up in Game 2 with five points and nine rebounds. He will have more success against this Cavaliers interior defense and should get back to his normal numbers.
Advantage: Atlanta
Sixth Man/Bench: Matthew Dellavedova/Iman Shumpert (CLE) vs. Dennis Schroder/Thabo Sefolosha (ATL)
The Cavaliers have the more versatile bench, but the Hawks go deeper in their rotation. Dellavedova, who I’m sure will get quite the ovation when he returns to Atlanta in Game 3, has been a big reason Cleveland was able to stay in games during the Pistons’ runs.
His ability to frustrate opposing players and his endless motor is priceless for the team. He is shooting 56.4 percent from the field, which would be tied for 10th in the playoffs.
Schroder hasn’t been as effective as he was last postseason, but he still can have a big game at any time. When Teague was struggling to get it going, Schroder would come into the game and try to pick the pace up. It will be a battle of grit and toughness with him and Dellavedova.
Shumpert, who has struggled with his shot all season long, is starting to focus more on his defense and hustle than trying to score. He always has active hands and is the best perimeter defender on the Cavaliers. If Smith is struggling with Korver, Shumpert will likely come in, like last postseason, and try to stymie him.
Just like Shumpert, Sefolosha is the Hawks best perimeter defender. He missed all of last postseason with a leg injury suffered outside of a nightclub in New York. He hasn’t added much on the offensive end, but he has been tough on the defensive side of the ball.
I would give the Cavaliers rotation the advantage here since they have the size and skills to matchup with anybody, and are more of a threat from three-point range.
Advantage: Cleveland
Coaching: Tyronn Lue (CLE) vs. Mike Budenholzer (ATL)
Here we have the rookie head coach vs. the experienced head coach. Lue was taught everything under Doc Rivers during his tenure with the Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers. He also picked up a few things under former Cavaliers coach David Blatt. Budenholzer was an assistant under Gregg Popovich for 17 years.
If anybody can bring the San Antonio Spurs style to a team, It’s him.
But even being taught under the greatest coach in NBA history can’t guarantee wins. Budenholzer is 2-5 in seven postseason series career and, including last year’s Eastern Conference Finals sweep against the Cavaliers. Lue is now 1-0 in playoff series after sweeping the Pistons.
They both have NBA Finals experience, but if we’re comparing the time it took for each to do it with their new team, Lue wins. Budenholzer uses more of his rotation, while Lue has only went three deep at times. I don’t think either coach has the advantage as it pertains to their team, but it will be interesting what each does strategically in this series.
Advantage: Push
Key Matchup: Kevin Love vs. Paul Millsap
Love will have to step up his defensive game big time to hang with Millsap. That’s asking a lot, but it’s the only way Lue will likely allow him to stay on the floor. He also must start making the three-point shot consistently, especially the wide open opportunities.
Millsap will take advantage of Love’s inability to guard on the perimeter, and will be aggressive within the post unless Love shows some toughness back. Can Love maintain consistency on both ends of the floor?
Cleveland Will Win If …
They play interior defense and expand the bench.
Atlanta Will Win If …
Cleveland’s Big 3 struggles throughout the series.
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Prediction
Cleveland takes down the Hawks in five games.