NBA Playoffs 2016: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Preview
In the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs, here’s a preview of the 1-seeded Golden State Warriors taking on the 8-seeded Houston Rockets.
My, how a year can change things. Last season, the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets faced off in a highly anticipated Western Conference Finals series featuring the league’s top-two MVP candidates. A year later, the two teams will square off again, only this time, it’ll be in a first-round series that could easily wind up as a sweep.
The top-seeded Warriors, who have beaten the Rockets 11 of the last 12 times over the last two seasons (including the playoffs), are coming off the greatest regular season in NBA history. Houston, on the other hand, might be the NBA’s most disappointing playoff team, with James Harden lugging a lackluster supporting cast to the postseason with a .500 record.
Will the Warriors breeze through the first round like they did last year? Is there any chance the Rockets could come together at the perfect time like they did last year to make things more interesting? Let’s take a look at the matchups.
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard
Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. Patrick Beverley (HOU)
Beverley is a pesky defender and a better standstill shooter than people give him credit for…but come on. We’re talking about the (soon-to-be) repeat league MVP here, who averaged 30.1 points, 6.7 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game on .504/.454/.908 shooting splits. That’s right, Curry joined the 50-40-90 club in a season he made 400 three-pointers. Moving on.
Advantage: Golden State Warriors
Shooting Guard
Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. James Harden (HOU)
Both players are All-NBA caliber wings and should be mentioned at the top of the list when the “Best 2-Guard in the NBA” conversation comes up. One is a deadly accurate perimeter shooter who brings far more effort on defense, while the other is the league’s most controversial superstar and a completely one-sided player. Thompson will be tasked with stopping Harden more than anything, while the Beard will have to battle fatigue and all the defensive attention to carry an entire team.
Advantage: Golden State Warriors
Small Forward
Harrison Barnes (GSW) vs. Trevor Ariza (HOU)
Harrison Barnes has been identified as the player every team should avoid overpaying this summer, but he’s still a solid two-way player despite being the weakest link in Golden State’s starting five. Ariza has the better numbers, averaging 12.7 points per game on 37.1 percent shooting from deep, but it’s hard to give the advantage to anyone going against a 73-win team. This is basically a wash.
Advantage: Push
Power Forward
Draymond Green (GSW) vs. Donatas Motiejunas (HOU)
Green is a triple-double machine, a vastly improved stretch-4 and a versatile defender capable of logging minutes at the 5. Motiejunas is an injury-prone stretch-big who played a grand total of 37 games for the Rockets this season. No contest.
Advantage: Golden State Warriors
Center
Andrew Bogut (GSW) vs. Dwight Howard (HOU)
Hey look, a category where the Rockets (kind of, supposedly) have an advantage! Though Bogut’s passing and importance to the Dubs’ defense are often understated, Howard is the better individual player, averaging 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game this season. He’ll need to dominate this matchup for Houston to have a prayer in this series.
Advantage: Houston Rockets
Sixth Man/Bench
Andre Iguodala (GSW) vs. Michael Beasley (HOU)
God help us all, Michael Beasley might be Houston’s most important sub thanks to Corey Brewer‘s season of regression and Clint Capela‘s lack of playoff experience. The Warriors have the deeper, more experienced bench, including another human Swiss Army knife in Andre Iguodala. Once the Dubs unleash the Lineup of Death with Iggy in the game, watch out.
Advantage: Golden State Warriors
Coaching
Steve Kerr (GSW) vs. J.B. Bickerstaff (HOU)
Hmm, let’s see here…a head coach with a 156-29 overall record and a championship to his name…or an interim head coach who replaced Kevin McHale 11 games into the season? Yeah, let’s go with Steve Kerr and call it a day.
Advantage: Golden State Warriors
Key Matchup
Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. James Harden (HOU)
Howard will need to beast Bogut in every facet of the game and somehow force the Warriors to stay big, but without James Harden winning his individual matchup against Klay Thompson (and whoever else the Dubs throw at him), this series will be over in four games.
The Beard is a singular, underappreciated offensive talent, which means all of Golden State’s defensive firepower will be focused on him. He has to find ways to score, pass out of double-teams and get to the foul line, all while battling fatigue as the league leader in minutes.
On the other end of the floor, Harden will also have to track Thompson, the league’s second-deadliest perimeter shooter — a player who thrives moving off the ball and would own the NBA’s single season record for three-pointers if not for the existence of Steph Curry. If Harden vs. Thompson is even close to a wash in this series, it’ll likely end in a sweep.
Golden State Will Win If…
The Warriors don’t allow Harden to have the greatest playoff series in NBA history and the world continues to spin in the same direction.
Houston Will Win If…
Harden averages a 45-15-10 for the series and a meteor crashes outside the Warriors’ hotel, barring the doors and forcing them to forfeit at least two games.
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Prediction:
Golden State Warriors defeat Houston Rockets 4-0.