Is Buddy Hield A Top 3 Pick?
With NCAA play over and the 2016 NBA Draft around the corner, did Buddy Hield do enough to secure himself a top 3 spot in the draft?
Buddy Hield wasn’t on the radar of a ton of scouts to start the year in terms of being a pick in the first round of the NBA draft.
That conversation has changed over the course of the season as Hield absolutely lit up his competition en route to a Naismith Player of the Year Award and an appearance in the Final Four along with the rest of his Oklahoma squad.
Not only did Hield grow his game through four years of college but he became an elite shooter and fearless scorer at the collegiate level.
When he got to Oklahoma he was a pedestrian outside shooter at best and failed to make a true impact his freshman year. In his second season he put up a few more points per game but his field goal percentages were only marginally better than what we saw from him in the previous year.
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He really began to hit his stride during his junior year and after that it was all over for opposing defenses as he left everything on the court this season.
As you can see in the table below his numbers improved each year but they drastically took a jump in nearly every area in his senior season. Most players don’t take such drastic leaps in production during college but Hield is an exception.
| Season | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 27 | 25.1 | 3.0 | 7.7 | .388 | 0.7 | 3.0 | .238 | 1.1 | 1.3 | .833 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 7.8 |
| 2013-14 | 33 | 32.1 | 5.9 | 13.3 | .445 | 2.7 | 7.1 | .386 | 1.9 | 2.5 | .750 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 16.5 |
| 2014-15 | 35 | 32.4 | 5.9 | 14.2 | .412 | 2.7 | 7.4 | .359 | 3.1 | 3.7 | .823 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 17.4 |
| 2015-16 | 37 | 35.4 | 8.1 | 16.2 | .501 | 4.0 | 8.7 | .457 | 4.8 | 5.4 | .880 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 25.0 |
| Career | 132 | 31.7 | 5.9 | 13.2 | .448 | 2.6 | 6.8 | .390 | 2.8 | 3.4 | .836 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 17.4 |
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CBB: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2016.
A slash line of .501/.457/.880 is nothing to joke about, but why did he make such a big leap in his play? Did he truly improve his skill that much or was the production a product of his maturity and comfortability at the collegiate level?
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That’s the question that most scouts have regarding taking Hield in the lottery. In terms of stars this is a relatively weak draft class so seeing a guard like him put up major numbers and assert himself in an area that’s valued now more than ever in the NBA in shooting makes him an attractive option to a lot of general observers.
However, seeing his play in the Final Four against Villanova left me with a few concerns.
Against the eventual champions, Hield scored nine points on 12 field goal attempts, both down from his usual season marks as he failed to dominate and prove why he’s worthy of a top selection in the draft.
Simply put, Villanova smothered him on defense. They used a number of defenders to mix up looks on him all night and didn’t let him get comfortable in the offense. That’s something that you’ll see in the NBA every game from a team that likes to switch on defense like Villanova.
Hield couldn’t create separation for the majority of the game and quite frankly, that’s a huge red flag to me. I understand Villanova was arguably one of the top defensive teams in the nation but when looking at that team how many of those guys are professional-level athletes?
No disrespect to the champs but Hield will face better defenders on a nightly basis at the next level. If he can’t create better looks for himself against a good college defense how’s he going to fare against a team like the Golden State Warriors?
Now we’ve all been victims of being prisoners of the moment, but a player with the reputation like his will have scrutiny thrown at him after every performance. If you need another example of that just look at the knocks that Ben Simmons has received in his lone year of college, and he put up historic numbers that we haven’t seen in decades.
I’m not saying Hield isn’t a solid NBA prospect, but given the concerns I outlined here I would hesitate to take him with one of the top picks come June. The second half of the lottery is a better spot for him in my opinion, but someone will most likely fall in love with his attitude and killer will that he displayed on most nights.
If you’re looking for a complementary shooter then look no further than Hield. He can knock down open shots with the best of any prospects in the field.
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But if you want a star-level talent? You might have to look elsewhere.