2016 NBA Draft: Jamal Murray Player Breakdown

Kentucky Wildcats star Jamal Murray has declared for the 2016 NBA Draft. What might his future hold?

With the NCAA Tournament nearing its glorious conclusion, the 2016 NBA Draft is beginning to take shape. Players are making their early declarations, with some even going as far as hiring an agent to thus guarantee their departure from the collegiate ranks.

According to SOURCE, Kentucky Wildcats guard Jamal Murray is the latest high-profile prospect to declare for the 2016 NBA Draft.

This isn’t very surprising.

Murray has an elite physical profile for a point guard at 6’5″ and 204 pounds with a 6’7″ wingspan and the fluid athleticism to move both with and without the ball. He finished his freshman season at Kentucky with averages of 20.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steal, and 3.0 3-point field goals made in 35.2 minutes.

Murray did so while maintaining a highly efficient slash line of .454/.408/.783. For his efforts, the Canadian standout earned his place as a Third-Team All-American and a First-Team All-SEC honoree.

Kentucky head coach John Calipari took to Twitter to publicly support Murray’s decision to declare.

He preceded that tweet with significant praise:

That’s quite the claim.

Players whom Calipari has coached include DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Rose, and John Wall. Thus, for Calipari to single out Murray as the player who has made the most improvement over a single season is saying something.

The question is, what makes Murray so special?

Next: Draft Projection

Draft Projection: Top 10

There’s very little question that Jamal Murray will be one of the first 10 players selected at the 2016 NBA Draft. He’s all but unanimously projected to be a Top 10 prospect amongst analysts, but he has a skill set that’s tailor made for the modern NBA.

It’s unlikely that it will, but if the draft order holds steady, Murray should come off the board in the No. 5 to No. 8 range.

Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are considered to be virtual locks to go No. 1 and No. 2 overall in the 2016 NBA Draft. Beyond that duo of prospects with elite potential is a general uncertainty about how the rest of the selection process will play out.

Dragan Bender and Kris Dunn are popular picks to go in the Top 5, with the likes of Jaylen Brown, Murray, Jakob Poeltl, and senior sensation Buddy Hield joining them in rising popularity.

The best bet for Murray is that he’ll land with a team that needs either a point or shooting guard who can space the floor. There are a number of such teams in possession of a Top 10 selection, and while much could change between now and June 25, the draft order shouldn’t change too drastically.

Murray is currently slotted in the Top 10, but there’s a genuine possibility that he goes as high as No. 3 overall.

Next: Key Strengths

Key Strengths

Jamal Murray is coming into the NBA at an absolutely perfect time. The league is valuing 3-point shooters more than ever before, and that caters to Murray’s skills as a hybrid guard and genuine marksman.

The Golden State Warriors are proving how a somewhat position-less system can flourish, and Murray is the perfect player for such an experiment.

While generally hidden as an off-guard at Kentucky, Murray has the court vision to be a solid facilitator at the next level. The biggest of strengths in his game, however, is his ability to switch from facilitator to off-ball scorer in the blink of an eye.

Murray’s masterful performance against the Florida Gators, which included his scoring 35 points on 8-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc, is a shining example of that versatility.

There’s a stark contrast in the way he approached the game against Florida and his eight-assist Kentucky debut against the Albany Great Danes.

Murray can do it all offensively. It’s simply a matter of what he’s asked to do.

Murray’s can pull up and shoot off the bounce with range beyond 24 feet. He also possesses the versatility to operate off-ball and utilize screens in order to get open and convert off the catch, which makes him the epitome of the modern NBA guard.

Furthermore, Murray’s size is elite for a point guard. Some may have him pegged as a 2, but his court vision was one of his primary strengths coming out of high school.

Murray has his flaws, but his strengths are a perfect match for the modern standards for guard play.

Next: Key Weaknesses

Key Weaknesses

Jamal Murray has elite size for a point guard, the shooting stroke to play the 2, and the basketball IQ to thrive regardless of position. Nevertheless, one can’t help but wonder if he’s built to play the 1 or the 2 at the next level.

Generally speaking, positional ambiguity is the cause of underachievement in the NBA.

Statistically speaking, Murray underwhelmed as a facilitator with averages of 2.2 assists to 2.3 turnovers in 2015-16. That sub-1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio is quite concerning for a player who, assuming he plays point guard in the NBA, will be tasked with at least doubling his turnovers with assists.

If Murray does play shooting guard, his 6’7″ wingspan would prove less than ideal.

It’s vital to note that Murray playing the 2 at Kentucky was the result of SEC Player of the Year Tyler Ulis having clout at point guard. Thus, scouts are working with the knowledge that Murray’s collegiate career was misleading by way of evaluating his ability to facilitate.

Nevertheless, one can’t help but wonder if Murray can run point at the next level.

Next: Upside Comparison

NBA Comparisons

In terms of a safe NBA comparison, Jamal Murray is comparable to Oklahoma City Thunder shooting guard Randy Foye. Foye never became a star of the Association, but he’s in his 10th season, has averaged 10-plus points per game in seven different seasons, and has a career 3-point field goal percentage of .369.

Murray is a better shooter than Foye, and he projects to be a superior player, but the 32-year-old is a safe comparison.

The obvious question is whom Murray compares to from an upside perspective. There are a number of options, and while most will turn to the statistics to find an answer, this is all about skill set, body, style of play, and potential.

It may seem lofty and impossible, but Murray’s ultimate upside comparison is somewhere between a Brooklyn Nets version of Deron Williams and Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry.

Murray can run point and facilitate, but is at his best when he complements that ability by working off-ball and spacing the floor without limit to his range—much like Curry. His body and style of play is also comparable to Williams with the Nets, as he can utilize his body and strength to create both in isolation and off-ball.

Simply put, Murray can be a genuine star at the next level.

Next: Ideal Fits

Ideal Fits

Evaluating teams based on record and current draft position, it’s hard to imagine Jamal Murray falling out of the Top 8.

The Minnesota Timberwolves need a facilitator who can shoot and function off-ball. Ricky Rubio is an outstanding passer, and Zach LaVine is an explosive athlete who can space the floor, but the lack of a knockdown shooter limits the Timberwolves’ potential.

If Murray can facilitate the offense, all the while thriving off-ball as Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins operate in isolation, he could complete the formation of Minnesota’s offensive attack.

The Boston Celtics have an All-Star at point guard in the 5’9″ Isaiah Thomas, and a 3-and-D specialist at the 2 in the 6’2″ Avery Bradley. Their backcourt is undersized, and Marcus Smart‘s jump shot is a genuine liability, which makes the 6’5″ Murray an obvious option.

The same can be said for the New Orleans Pelicans. Both Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday are under contract, but the former can’t shoot, the latter has a long history of injuries, and starting shooting guard Eric Gordon will be an unrestricted free agent this coming summer.

Murray would help space the floor for Anthony Davis while flourishing in an Alvin Gentry offense that’s built to accommodate his strengths.

Rounding out the Top 5 realistic options are the Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors. For Sacramento, Ben McLemore hasn’t worked out and Rajon Rondo may leave—a similar reality for Toronto with pending unrestricted free agent DeMar DeRozan.

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Regardless of when Murray comes off the board, there are five viable options to select him in the Top 10.