Is North Carolina The Nation’s Best Team?
By Nathan Giese
The North Carolina Tar Heels have quietly been dominating opponents, but can’t seem to regain their preseason praise. Is UNC the nation’s top team?
Entering the year ranked as the top team in the country, the North Carolina Tar Heels went through some problems early on. Marcus Paige was hurt and the offense struggled to find good space on the floor for Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to operate.
They still managed to go 5-1 without him, so once he returned, the thought was the Tar Heels would be great. While they improved, another bump in the road came at Texas, losing on a buzzer beater.
Chatter about North Carolina’s potential championship bid was quickly swept under the rug. Though both of their losses were justifiable, the Big 12’s dominance headlined by Oklahoma and Kansas, the Big East’s surprising depth at the top and the rest of the ACC’s questionable play quickly became the national focus.
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During that stretch, all the Tar Heels have done is gone 12-0, won 10 of them by double digits and taken control of the ACC.
UNC has done so well recently, but nobody seems to be talking about them.
In a year where there seems to be no clear-cut favorite to win it all, here are the Tar Heels, complete with a 19-2 record, winning in dominant fashion, full of veteran leaders and talent up and down the lineup.
Two questions come to mind when considering the North Carolina Tar Heels this season, and neither of them have anything to do with whether or not they’re good.
One of those questions is whether or not they should be ranked No. 1. Better yet, to put it in NCAA tournament perpsective, if the tourney started today, would they have a case to be the top overall seed?
As recently as Jan. 25, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi says no. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm also no (Jan. 29). USA Today’s Shelby Mast says yes (Jan. 28).
Much like the AP and coaches’ polls, nobody can seem to agree on this topic. Or any topic in terms of rankings, really. To figure this out, it’s best to compared UNC’s resume with that of the team many are debating the Tar Heels against: the Oklahoma Sooners.
Through 21 games, North Carolina is 5-1 against the KenPom top 50, the loss coming at Texas on the aforementioned buzzer beater. To counter, Oklahoma is 6-2 against the same metric of teams. Both losses came on the road, one in a triple overtime thriller at Kansas and the other at Iowa State.
Basically a draw there, all things considered.
Title contenders have to win away from home, something I’ve harped on many times over the past year. UNC is a combined 7-2 away from home, 3-2 in true road games and 4-0 in neutral-court contests. Oklahoma is also 7-2 with the exactly same splits.
Again, a draw.
Against ranked opponents? That’s where Oklahoma has the edge, mostly because of their Big 12 schedule.
The Tar Heels are 2-0 against ranked teams, the wins coming at home against then-No. 2 Maryland and a neutral-court win over then-No. 22 UCLA. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 4-2 against ranked opponents, the losses coming in those earlier mentioned road games.
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Since rankings are subjective, you can see the argument for both teams, but most would tend to lean towards the Sooners for having an identical overall record but also having more difficult games and excelling in them.
Oklahoma also has the benefit of Buddy Hield‘s brilliance. The Wooden Award front runner has captured the nation’s attention, which gives them more eyes and more popularity, especially with these high-profile games. While the Sooners have been taking down Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia, the Tar Heels have been dominating Boston College, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
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Could North Carolina be ranked No. 1? Sure, but Oklahoma’s schedule favors them in this case.
That doesn’t mean the Tar Heels can’t still earn that top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, though. However, there’s a few things hanging over Carolina’s that could prevent that.
Most likely, UNC will be in a battle with whoever’s leading the Big 12, Xavier or Villanova for the top overall seed. For argument’s sake, we’ll stay on the Oklahoma comparison train.
Since the NCAA Tournament doesn’t start now, that means there’s still games to play. For the Tar Heels, their schedule gets tougher (on paper) while Oklahoma’s stays tough (in reality).
The difficult part of projecting Carolina’s schedule is trying to figure out the ACC riddle, something nobody’s been able to do so far.
As it’s laid out right now based on rankings released on Jan. 25, North Carolina has six games against ranked opponents remaining, four of which are on the road. However, Duke, who is currently ranked 24th, lost its only game of the week and could be unranked by the time they play the Tar Heels on Feb. 17.
Notre Dame is currently ranked 25th but lost at Syracuse (play Wake Forest on Sunday). Louisville, Carolina’s opponent on Monday, was dominated by Virginia at home. The Cardinals will likely still be ranked by game time, though their ranking will be lower than the No. 16 they’re at right now.
This leaves Virginia as the team most likely to be highly ranked by game time, a Feb. 27 battle on the road for the Tar Heels.
Even when counting the ACC Tournament, UNC could have a number of ranked opponents on their resume, but the strength of those rankings could be questioned. As for Oklahoma, has three games left against currently ranked teams with Texas possibly being added to that list. Add in their Big 12 Tournament games, which could be another two games, and Oklahoma has the advantage here as well.
Of course, that’s assuming both teams win all of their remaining games, which is not a guarantee, especially for the Tar Heels, who are struggling in one crucial area.
Last year’s big headline for North Carolina was their lack of three-point shooting. It cost them games and was ultimately led to their loss against Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. They had to correct this year.
So far, they have not corrected that. At all. And it’s actually gotten worse.
UNC shot 35.8 percent from three last season. This season, they’re shooting 30.8 percent, 311th in the nation. Clearly that’s not good. Much of this has to do with Paige not being the sharpshooter he’s used to being. After shooting just less than 40 percent last season, he’s shooting just 33 percent this year.
Another aspect to this, though, is the Tar Heels’ incredibly flawed three-point shooting defense. As highlighted here, the one area UNC has to improve is their three-point defense, which ranks 308th in the nation (37.2 percent allowed).
They can’t shoot the three and they can’t stop teams from shooting it. It’s a scary line to be walking.
For comparison’s sake, Oklahoma ranks first nationally in three-point shooting (46.7 percent) and 62nd in three-point field goal defense (31.7).
Those metrics don’t tell the entire story of North Carolina, though. No one set of stats can tell an entire story, nor can the rankings of opponents on a team’s schedule, but relevant information is important to the conversation.
North Carolina may not be the nation’s best team. That’s Oklahoma. But it’s close and, of course, subjective.
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The Sooners may be ranked No. 1 and on track to be the top overall seed. The Tar Heels may have some work to do and a tougher schedule ahead of them.
But this conversation is far from over and should be one of the more interesting debates in college basketball the rest of the way. Right now the answer seems obvious, but in two weeks’ time, that answer could be very murky.