NBA Draft: Buddy Hield, Brice Johnson And The Most Improved

Highlighted by breakout stars Buddy Hield and Brice Johnson, a number of NBA Draft prospects have dramatically improved their stock in 2015-16.

With 2016 underway, NBA Draft season has commenced. The proverbial solstice has come and passed, and the time to evaluate the top international and college basketball prospects has officially arrived.

While many had an idea of what the prospect list would look like at this point of the 2015-16 season, very few predicted that the following players would break out as potential NBA Draft stars.

This list isn’t reserved for players who have simply benefited from an increase in playing time. Instead, it consists of players for whom the statistics tell a story, but fail to represent the entire story of their development.

Related Story: NBA Draft: Best Player Ever Selected in all 60 Spots

These athletes have improved fundamentally, shaking off the criticism of 2015 to become viable prospects in 2016. Leading that group are two of college basketball’s most recent breakout stars: Buddy Hield of the Oklahoma Sooners and Brice Johnson of the North Carolina Tar Heels.

The question is, who joins Hield and Johnson as those who have utilized a powerful work ethic to develop into significantly better players than they were just a season ago?

Next: From No One to Someone

College Basketball Honorable Mention: Grayson Allen, Duke Blue Devils

Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 20
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’4.5″, 189 pounds, 6’6.5″
Slash Line: .476/.393/.869
Season Averages: 33.9 MPG, 20.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.7 3PM
Key Improvement: Consistency

Grayson Allen is hoping to be the latest Duke Blue Devils perimeter player to make it to the NBA. Following in the footsteps of players ranging from Luol Deng and Kyrie Irving to Rodney Hood and J.J. Redick, Allen has followed his breakout showing in the 2015 National Championship Game with a huge sophomore season.

It’s hard to find a player who has improved statistically quite like Allen.

Allen averaged 4.4 points, 1.0 rebound, 0.4 assist, and 0.3 steal in 9.2 minutes in 2014-15. He’s up to 20.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.2 steals in 33.9 minutes in 2015-16, and while that may not translate to a massive per-40 leap, the basic numbers are symbolic enough.

After struggling to find playing time as a freshman, Allen is performing at a star-caliber level as a sophomore.

There are questions about how Allen’s game will translate, including his size and defensive inconsistency. He’s an excellent shooter and a better athlete than he’s given credit for, but Allen struggles against length and plays out of control in key moments.

Allen’s draft stock doesn’t quite match his collegiate success, but after being a virtual nobody before the National Championship Game, he’s safely on the radar for the 2016 NBA Draft.

Next: International Standout

International Honorable Mention: Timothe Luwawu, Mega Leks

Position: Shooting Guard, Small Forward
Age: 20
Height & Weight: 6’7″ & 205 pounds
Slash Line: .395/.360/.671
Season Averages: 30.6 MPG, 15.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2.1 SPG, 2.2 3PM
Key Improvement: 3-Point Shooting

French swingman Timothe Luwawu surfaced in NBA Draft circles leading up to the 2015 event. Luwawu opted to withdraw from the annual selection process, but his potential gained notoriety on a number of fronts.

Thus far in 2015-16, the 20-year-old has done exactly what he’s needed to: improved upon his flaws as a shooter.

Prior to the current Adriatic League season, Luwawu was pegged as an explosive athlete who lacked the offensive polish to immediately contribute in the NBA. His defensive upside was and still is heralded as elite, but his offensive game was limited to transition scoring opportunities.

There are still flaws to address, but Luwawu is essentially this year’s Justin Anderson.

Much as Anderson did for the Virginia Cavaliers in 2014-15, Luwawu has gone from a dreadful shooter to a productive 3-point weapon. Thus, the jury is still out about his ability—or lack thereof—to consistently create offense in the half court.

On the upside, Luwawu has already made more 3-point field goals in 18 games of 2015-16—40—than he did in 42 appearances in 2014-15—27—with an increase of 4.9 points scored per 36 minutes.

Next: No Fear

Wade Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt Commodores

Position: Point Guard
Age: 19
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’3″, 194 pounds, 6’10”
Slash Line: .500/.476/.841
Season Averages: 28.6 MPG, 14.8 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 3PM
Key Improvement: Finishing Against Length

Wade Baldwin IV is a 6’3″ point guard with a 6’10” wingspan and the uncanny ability to pull up from anywhere on the floor and sink a jump shot. He displays strong court vision, can play lockdown defense when he’s focused, and makes a highly efficient percentage of his free throws.

By most means and measures, Baldwin has the tools to be an impact player at the next level.

The key to Baldwin’s development into a potential lottery pick is his improved play from within the 3-point line. He still struggles against length in the paint, to some extent, but he’s dramatically improved in his ability to overcome bigger defenders.

If Baldwin continues to progress, he should have a very bright NBA future.

After shooting just 43.8 percent on 2-point field goals in 2014-15, he’s up to 51.3 percent in 2015-16. He’s also averaging 4.8 free throw attempts per contest after tallying just 3.0 per game in 2014-15, which is a sign of his newfound aggressiveness in attacking interior defenders—a vital change from his tentative nature a season ago.

In turn, Baldwin is averaging 5.5 more points per game in 0.2 less minutes—good for an increase of 7.9 points per 40 minutes.

Next: Whiteside 2.0?

A.J. Hammons, Purdue Boilermakers

Position: Center
Age: 23
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 7’0″, 261 pounds, 7’3″
Slash Line: .621/1.000/.757
Season Averages: 22.1 MPG, 13.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.3 ORPG, 2.7 BPG
Key Improvement: Weight and Conditioning

A.J. Hammons is college basketball’s version of Miami Heat star Hassan Whiteside. It may have taken him longer than the average to realize how good he can be, but now that he has, there aren’t many better.

If Hammons weren’t 23 years old, he’d be a lottery pick.

Hammons’ age will impact his draft stock, but he’s as imposing a force as any prospect at his position. He’s a powerful physical presence who blocks shots and rebounds at an elite level, and, as of 2015-16, scores with reasonable versatility.

Assuming he continues to expand his offensive game and improve his conditioning, he can be of great value to a team in need of a true interior anchor.

Hammons averaged 19.6 points, 10.9 rebounds and 4.6 blocks per 40 minutes on a slash line of .553/.000/.669 in 2014-15. In 2015-16, he checks in at 25.2 points, 14.5 rebounds and 4.9 blocks per 40 minutes on a slash line of .621/1.000/.757 with three 3-point field goals made to the zero he converted in his first three seasons combined.

He’s unlikely to go in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft, but Hammons—who lost 20 pounds at John Lucas‘ camp in Houston over the summer of 2015—is one of my Top 30 prospects.

Next: Wooden Award Favorite?

Buddy Hield, Oklahoma Sooners

Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 22
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’4.5″, 215 pounds, 6’8.5″
Slash Line: .502/.500/.898
Season Averages: 33.5 MPG, 26.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.3 SPG, 3.6 3PM
Key Improvement: Maturity

After Ben Simmons and Denzel Valentine—and in a Kemba Walker type of way, ahead of them—Buddy Hield has been the best player in the country. He has the Oklahoma Sooners severely overachieving at 12-1, with the only loss coming in triple overtime at the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks.

Hield had his coming out party during that game—46 points, eight rebounds and seven assists—but he was a first-round prospect before that outing.

Hield is a gifted scorer who made a name for himself in such a capacity during the 2014-15 season. The difference from one season to the next is a combination of physical and mental maturity.

Rather than settling for what the defense gives him, Hield is letting the game come to him and forcing the defense to adjust.

Hield is currently shooting 50.2 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from 3-point range, and 89.8 percent on 6.8 free throw attempts per game. That’s a massive improvement from his slash line of .412/.359/.823 on 3.7 free throw attempts per contest in 2014-15.

Beyond the numbers, Hield is a high character player who’s loved by his coaches and teammates, has an outstanding work ethic, and is constantly searching for ways to expand his game.

Next: Stepping Up

Brice Johnson, North Carolina Tar Heels

Position: Power Forward
Age: 21
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’9″, 225 pounds, 6’11”
Slash Line: .645/.000/.806
Season Averages: 26.3 MPG, 16.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.5 ORPG, 1.3 APG, 1.1 BPG, 1.0 SPG
Key Improvement: Removing the Tentativeness

Roy Williams may not agree, but Brice Johnson has been playing like a star since Kennedy Meeks went down with a knee injury. Even before he erupted for 37 points and 23 rebounds against the Florida State Seminoles, Johnson was dominant in Meeks’ absence.

During that unforgettable outing, Johnson made history.

Johnson hasn’t been heralded in the same breath as a Durant or a Griffin, but that doesn’t make this feat any less tremendous.

Johnson is currently a second-round prospect, but his improvements have put him in the first round discussion. He’s upped his per 40 minute averages by marks of 4.5 points and 3.5 rebounds from 2014-15 to 2015-16, and has improved his free throw percentage for the fourth consecutive year.

Johnson’s primary appeal can be found in his explosive athletic ability. He runs the floor exceptionally well, is aggressive as a rebounder, and is more than capable of playing above the rim.

Beyond all else, the 21-year-old senior has put himself in the first round discussion by proving that he isn’t afraid of the moment when his number is called.

Next: Insane Statistical Improvement

Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville Cardinals

Position: Center
Age: 19
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’10”, 246 pounds, 7’2.5″
Slash Line: .629/.000/.520
Season Averages: 21.9 MPG, 9.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG,  3.2 ORPG, 1.1 APG, 2.0 BPG, 0.8 SP
Key Improvement: Per 40 Statistics

Statistically, no player has improved as dramatically as Chinanu Onuaku. The Louisville Cardinals big man is improving fundamentally, and Rick Pitino is rewarding him with opportunities.

It’s important not to harp on college statistics, but it’s impossible to ignore Onuaku’s improvement.

In 2014-15, Onuaku posted averages of 6.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.4 offensive boards, and 2.7 blocks per 40 minutes. A season later, the 19-year-old is averaging 17.6 points, 15.0 rebounds, 5.9 offensive boards, and 3.7 blocks per 40 minutes.

Statistically, it doesn’t make sense how much Onuaku has improved.

Onuaku is still raw offensively, but he’s an athletic 6’10” with a great work ethic. He’s a threat in the pick and roll, an improved free throw shooter, and defensively, is a dominant shot-blocker.

If his underhanded free throws should tell you anything, it’s that he’s willing to do whatever it takes to be successful—even if that means facing unfounded heckling.

Next: Most Improved Player

Jakob Poeltl, Utah Utes

Position: Center
Age: 20
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 7’1″, 242 pounds, 7’1″
Slash Line: .687/.000/.660
Season Averages: 27.8 MPG, 17.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.6 ORPG, 1.9 APG, 2.1 BPG
Key Improvement: Offensive Fundamentals

Jakob Poeltl burst onto the scene in 2014-15 as one of college basketball’s premier interior defenders. There were intriguing signs on offense, but the Ukrainian center entered the lottery discussion for the 2015 NBA Draft on the strength of his defense—a strength that even Jahlil Okafor couldn’t overcome.

In 2015-16, Poeltl has developed into one of the best interior scorers in the country.

Poeltl has jumped from potentially stealing a spot in the late lottery of the 2015 NBA Draft to competing for a Top 5 selection in 2016. He’s my No. 6 overall prospect and projects to move up by season’s end.

When a player improves as rapidly as Poeltl has, it’s hard not to be intrigued.

The 7’1″ center from Ausria displayed solid touch around the basket in 2014-15, but in 2015-16, he’s been consistent in creating his own offense. He’s posting players up, finishing over both shoulders, setting strong screens, and has solid vision as a passer with his back to the basket.

Poeltl needs to go up stronger when he’s under the rim, but the current improvements suggest he’ll take care of that concern, as well.

Next: Making His Own Name

Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga Bulldogs

Position: Power Forward
Age: 19
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’10”, 238 pounds, 6’10.5″
Slash Line: .659/.333/.826
Season Averages: 30.4 MPG, 18.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.8 ORPG, 1.4 APG, 0.7 BPG, 0.7 SPG
Key Improvement: Offensive Range

Domantas Sabonis utilized a combination of a relentless motor and his father’s legacy to live on the first-round bubble of the 2015 NBA Draft. Rather than testing the waters, Sabonis opted to return to the collegiate scene and spend his sophomore season with the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Sabonis’ draft stock is admittedly similar in 2016, but that will change if he maintains his current pace.

Sabonis established himself as a force on the boards in 2014-15, but his offensive improvement is what’s turning heads in 2015-16. He’s almost doubled his scoring output in less than a nine-minute increase in playing time, and his range has expanded significantly.

An accurate depiction of Sabonis’ improvement is his jump from being a 66.4 percent free throw shooter in 2014-15 to a mark of 82.6 percent in 2015-16.

On a per 40 basis, Sabonis has experienced a rise from 18.0 points in 2014-15 to 24.0 points in 2015-16—and he’s done so with a decline of just 0.9 field goal percentage points. His midrange game is coming along well, his post play has improved, and his near 66 percent shooting from the field is just downright unfair.

Sabonis is still slated to come off the board in the late first round, but he’ll rise if he proves that his improvement is legitimate.

Next: Sensationally Streaky

Wayne Selden Jr., Kansas Jayhawks

Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 21
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’5″, 230 pounds, 6’10”
Slash Line: .555/.554/.649
Season Averages: 27.9 MPG, 15.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.8 3PM
Key Improvement: 3-Point Shooting

Wayne Selden Jr. was the third of three heralded freshmen to join the Kansas Jayhawks for the 2013-14 season—and yes, I meant to phrase it that way. Ahead of him in the pecking order were Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid, which effectively eliminated Selden’s chances of being an immediate star.

After a rough sophomore season, Selden is on the right path towards joining his former teammates as Bill Self products drafted in the first round.

Selden, who shot 36.5 percent from 3-point range as a sophomore, is converting an absurd 55.4 percent of his attempts as a junior. For those fearing a small sample size, don’t; Selden’s putting up 5.0 shots from distance per game.

It’s hard to imagine him maintaining this pace throughout 2015-16, but Selden is showing scouts what they’d already known: when he gets hot, he can shoot with anyone.

Selden is streaky—his free throw shooting illustrates that—but he’s built like a mack truck at shooting guard. With his powerful frame and, currently, elite 3-point marksmanship, he has a chance to be a first-round draft choice.

The question is, can he maintain his draft stock once his efficiency inevitably takes a slight hit?

Next: Oozing Versatility

Denzel Valentine, Michigan State Spartans

Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 22
Height, Weight, Wingspan: 6’6″, 220 pounds, 6’10”
Slash Line: .456/.400/.851
Season Averages: 30.6 MPG, 18.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 7.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 3.0 3PM
Key Improvement: From Well-Rounded to Dominating Every Phase

Draymond Green and Magic Johnson have created high standards for Michigan State Spartans players who post triple-doubles. Thus, there’s an equal balance of overreaction and downplaying being done for Denzel Valentine’s stellar 2015-16 season.

Arthroscopic knee surgery has sidelined the senior standout, but Valentine has made the jump from being a second-round prospect to a potential lottery pick.

In 12 appearances, Valentine has two triple-doubles and another three double-doubles. Statistics are what they are, but the 22-year-old has been one of the most—if not the single most—complete players in the country.

Valentine—24.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 9.3 assists and 3.9 3-point field goals made per 40 minutes—has progressively built towards this breakout season.

Next: Who are the Top 30 prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft?

Valentine has been producing across the board for the better part of his four-year career, but it wasn’t until 2015-16 that he surfaced in NBA Draft circles. He needs to tone his body and improve his lateral quickness, but it’s hard to ignore a skill set like this.

Valentine has done as much for his stock as anyone eligible for the 2016 NBA Draft. Once he returns from his current injury absence, he’ll have a chance to solidify his Top 14 potential.