Daily NBA Fix: Betting on Rookie Extensions

Jeremy Lamb did he best to justify his freshly signed three-year, $21 million contract extension on Tuesday night with 20 points on near-perfect shooting in a 130-105 win against the Chicago Bulls.

Lamb took advantage of the Bulls mistakes to get nearly a third of his points off turnovers in the win. He didn’t focus on any particular area of the court and his only miss came on a corner 3-pointer during his 9-for-10 shooting night.

So is he worth roughly $7 million a year? With the NBA’s salary cap jumping up over the next few years. Yes, for both the team and himself. It makes sense as he’s yet to truly prove himself, so if he ends up playing above his current level it is a steal for the team. If he maintains the status quo he’s gotten himself paid well. It isn’t a bad idea for both him or the team if you are considering the bets both parties are making. Ben Golliver of SI.com graded it a C-, as he’s hesitant to believe Lamb will turn the corner, but the Hornets aren’t hampering any long term plans.

Terrence Ross signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Raptors, but his night didn’t go as well as he shot 2-for-8 from the field, scoring only eight points with one rebound, two assists and a steal. He’ll have better games for sure (9.6 points, 2.6 rebounds and 0.9 assists career averages) but an ominous start to the extension. He’s more proven than Lamb has been so it is likely a safer bet for the Raptors than the Hornets’ Lamb. Golliver graded the signing a C.

These two decided to take the safe bet (and their teams hoping it pays off as well) but many have decided to wager on themselves in hopes of grabbing a piece of the expanding pie known as the salary cap.

Golliver also outlined some of the reasons why these guys are betting on themselves.

"That sends the rest of the 2012 class, including lottery picks Andre Drummond, Bradley Beal, Dion Waiters, Harrison Barnes and Meyers Leonard, on the path towards restricted free agency next summer.The NBA’s surging salary cap—this year’s $70 million cap is projected to hit $89 million in 2016–17—played a role in encouraging both players and teams to wait until July. On the player side, B-level guys like Barnes and even C-level guys like Waiters can reasonably expect meaningful pay days next summer. The risks associating with waiting—injuries, a down year—are lessened this year because so many teams project to have major money to spend. If ever there was a time for a young and unproven player to “bet on himself,” this is it. A fourth-year breakout could easily increase a player’s value over his current level by tens of millions in dollars."

A few big names (Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Damian Lillard) have already signed extensions before Monday’s deadline but for the rest have made their bets and so far some of them have been doing better than others to improve their stock, including…

Drummond is Nearly Averaging a 20/20

With 25 points and 29 rebounds(!) against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night Andre Drummond lifted his season averages to 20.3 points and 19.5 rebounds a game. Through four games, he’s grabbed 19 or more rebounds three times with the outlier being a 10-rebound performance against the Utah Jazz and Rudy Gobert. I suppose we can forgive him for struggling against Gobert and only managing a double-double.

Needless to say those numbers aren’t going to hold up through the entire season but I wouldn’t rule out Drummond averaging 20+ points and 10+ rebounds a game. If he does that he’ll be earning himself a nice contract when the season ends.

Randle Goes Up and Under for Incredible Dunk

The Lakers are still winless, but at least we get to see a healthy Julius Randle throwing down dunks.

After watching his rookie seasons end in 14 minutes thanks to a broken right tibia it is great to see him back out on the course no worse for wear. He’s pretty much still a rookie, but he’s showing the Los Angles Lakers made the right pick for the future of their franchise.