OKC Thunder: Setting Realistic Expectations for the Beginning of the Season
The biggest season in Oklahoma City franchise history begins tonight. Kevin Durant contract year and a new head coach in Billy Donovan. It might even be championship or bust, and by bust that means Durant departing.
Anywhere vs. the San Antonio Spurs isn’t an easy task but at least the Thunder get them at home. Only the Golden State Warriors or Cleveland Cavaliers might have been considered tougher opening night opponents. Donovan will certainly be thrown right into the fire.
Tonight is 1 of 82. We understand the Thunder have been a popular pick to win the title this year and those expectations are fine. But what about tonight? What about the first week of the season? What should those expectations be?
It would be unfair to rip Donovan and this team if they come up short vs. the Spurs, a well-oiled machine that just added a new piece that will rev their engine a little louder. It will take time for Donovan to fully install all of his concepts and it might take months for the Thunder to be able to implement those on the court. There’s not a lot of time for a learning curve, but there is more than one night or one week.
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Beyond the Spurs tonight, the Thunder have a pretty tough November upcoming. OKC closes out October Friday at the Orlando Magic but then plays four games in five nights beginning Sunday (vs. DEN, at HOU, vs. TOR, at Chicago). Just five playoff teams from a year ago make up the remaining 12 games of the month, including road contests vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks, and home games against the New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks.
It’s all enough to really test this Thunder team a month into the season. Last year, it took forever to find out what the team was as it dealt with extreme injury issues that would ultimately define the season. Everyone is pretty healthy as of right now so after a few games of typical early-season rust, there’s no reason not to expect this team to be hitting some kind of stride by mid-November.
The Thunder will play 11 of their first 18 games at home so that should help them out early on. Five of the seven road games will be tough and one or two slip-ups at home make 12-6 or 13-5 seem like a reasonable start before December.
Beyond the record, there are some important things that should either be expected or looked at closely in the next few weeks.
Donovan’s rotation may be the biggest. We know Andre Roberson and Steven Adams are starting tonight so defense is still an emphasis with the starting group. The Thunder starters have been good, but not great, lineups the last two seasons despite sacrificing so much offense and a lot of Kendrick Perkins. The starters should remain a net-positive lineup but if it’s close there are a lot of other options Donovan can go so a change could come.
The bench is pretty deep and players like Kyle Singler or Mitch McGary may not even be able to crack the 10-man rotation. Expect Donovan to go deeper than 10 early as he tries to figure combinations out.
Durant’s health would be a bigger storyline if we didn’t see him look so good during the preseason. He proved he hasn’t lost a step but seeing how he is managed during that first four games in five nights stretch will be interesting. Will he average over 35 minutes per game or will he rest on some nights?
These are just a few of the things to look for from Donovan and company as the season tips off tonight. There are huge expectations for this season and rightfully so. With this much talent, anything less than a championship is a failure, even considering this is Donovan’s first season in the NBA. But tonight, this week, this month, a winning percentage above .650 should be considered satisfactory. And just seeing Durant on the court doing his thing again in meaningful games will be a win for this franchise.
Next: NBA Power Rankings: Opening Week
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