FanDuel NBA: Best Buys For Oct. 27

For most days with a decent slate of NBA games I’ll provide best options to return value using my basic DFS strategy, which was described here. We’ll look at Vegas totals for some guidance, but advanced NBA stats will help us find candidates from (anticipated) lower scoring games as well.

The recommended players will be sorted by FanDuel NBA salary tiers, which will enable me to present a recommended lineup or two, as well as thoughts regarding tournament (GPP) vs. cash game viability based on the number of elite players in action and the strength of their match-ups.

Scheduling Observations

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Opening night has a limited slate, so to some extent our hand will be forced by building around the key players that will be present in a higher percentage of lineups than usual.

For that reason, cash games are usually a safer option in this scenario, but since there are viable building blocks like the New Orleans Pelicans’ Anthony Davis and the Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry, a case can be made for tournament games as well given that there will be some variance.

Statistical Insights

Of the three games, only one has a Vegas total more than 200: the tilt between the Warriors and the Pelicans (208).

While there are certainly multi-category players to be had from the other two contests, they each feature two of the stingiest defensive teams from last season in terms of points allowed per game, as the Atlanta Hawks (97.1) and the Chicago Bulls (97.8) both were top ten finishers in that category, and both teams have retained the majority of their starting lineups.

Injury Notes

The X Factor of the night is undoubtedly LeBron James, who has recently been hampered by back issues. It’s odd to think of any lineup built around James as “contrarian”, but I think that will be the case on opening night given the opponent and the concerns surrounding his health.

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Assuming he does play, his counterpart for the Chicago Bulls will be swingman Tony Snell, whom the King outweighs by 50 pounds, so that might be incentive enough for someone to take a chance on him.

The New Orleans Pelicans hobble into Oracle Arena without starters Tyreke Evans (right knee surgery), Omar Asik (right calf strain) and key reserves Norris Cole, Quincy Pondexter and Alexis Ajinca (all listed as “out” in the team’s media guide).

While starting PF Anthony Davis will surely be the continued focus of the offense, the skeleton crew of Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Jrue Holiday and recently added Nate Robinson will need to pick up the slack.

Elite Options ($10,001+)

As mentioned earlier, the choice in the Elite category comes down to Steph Curry ($10,400) or Anthony Davis ($11,200). Curry finished the preseason with a stellar Offensive Rating of 114.4 in six games, so the reigning league MVP appears ready to pick up where last season ended.

Although Davis might incur the brunt of Golden State’s defensive focus, it’s fair at this stage of his career to consider him match-up proof.

In last season’s playoff series vs. the Warriors, The Brow averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game, so the defending champs may be content to let him do his thing again, since they swept that series despite his otherworldly performance.

While LeBron James ($11,000) draws a favorable scenario, the uncertainty of his health and the absence of Kyrie Irving will mitigate his ceiling in what could be a lower scoring affair overall. On the plus side, James has an obvious mismatch waiting for him in swingman Tony Snell, but small forward seems like a better slot for saving cap space given the aforementioned choices.

Solid Buys ($7,501 – $10,000)

Although the Detroit Pistons have a tough draw visiting the Atlanta Hawks, Reggie Jackson ($8,300) should still be a worthwhile investment based on touches alone.

While his shooting percentage might be hampered by the opponent, Jackson is a surprisingly good rebounding guard who holds the keys to the offense, so a triple double is always a possibility when he plays, especially while reserve Brandon Jennings continues his recovery from a torn Achilles.

While Jackson holds the backcourt edge, the Hawks’ Paul Millsap ($7,700) is the best frontcourt player in their match-up since Pistons’ big man Andre Drummond can only do so much by himself without Greg Monroe patrolling the lane with him this season. Ersan Ilyasova, Monroe’s replacement, is not a threat to Millsap’s productivity.

The Chicago Bulls Pau Gasol ($7,900) has temporarily quieted the concerns about his longevity with a solid preseason, so it may be time to strike while the iron is hot. Since the Cavs’ Kevin Love is newly recovered from shoulder surgery and Tristan Thompson just ended his holdout, Gasol should be able to drop some points on them.

Steady Contributors ($5,001 – $7,500)

The Bulls’ Jimmy Butler might be the play of the day at $7,500, as he is more of a “solid buy” who just missed the cutoff. Although his preseason performance was middling at best,

Butler is more of a gut feel call vs. a Cavs backcourt rotation that will be without both Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. Throw in the fact that Derrick Rose is still experiencing blurred vision from his recent orbital fracture, and Butler is looking like the best backcourt option among all guards in that game.

Golden State’s Klay Thompson ($7,100) could provide a nice return … or he could get lost in the shuffle due to the Warriors’ depth and the possibility of the game getting out of hand early. Given the price point, his high ceiling might be tough to resist, but it’s the low floor that could steer people elsewhere.

The Atlanta Hawks’ Al Horford at $7,200 holds similar appeal to Millsap, but perhaps with less upside given his head to head matchup with Andre Drummond and the possibility that he might be showing signs of wear and tear (as discussed in the center preview).

Marcus Morris ($5,700) of the Detroit Pistons, has had a fine preseason, culminating in a 17 point/10 rebound performance vs. the same Hawks team, so rumors of his tenuous hold on the starting gig in the Motor City may have been premature.

Also at $5,700, the Bulls’ Joakim Noah can be a decent value option when he scores in double digits, since he is usually good for blocks and rebounds. But at that price, the high risk/high reward proposition becomes more palatable.

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At $5,400, Ryan Anderson could provide decent ROI given the Pelicans’ lack of depth. Anderson scored in double figures in all six preseason games, and he produced a double-double (points + rebounds) in two of them. I’m willing to bet he can do that again, given the likelihood of his expanded role for the contest.

Bargain Basement ($5,000 or less)

The Detroit Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope checks in at the Mendoza line of FanDuel ($5,000), but he will receive starter’s minutes on a Pistons team that is thin in the backcourt. He missed the last preseason game with a foot injury but he has since been cleared to play in the opener.

From the same Pistons’ squad, 19 year-old Stanley Johnson ($4,300) has been the talk of NBA preseason. Although he is not in the starting lineup, at that price he can still return value across multiple stat categories, which should easily justify the paltry cost.

At the opposite end of the age spectrum,

Andre Iguodala (also $4,300) may get a chance to show that last year’s rejuvenation during the Warriors’ playoff run was not a fluke. Iguodala’s scoring increased from a career low 7.8 to 10.4 PPG this last postseason, as he became a surprise contributor down the stretch.

Ken Bazemore ($3,700) has been elevated to the Atlanta Hawks’ starting lineup, as the experiment of how to replace DeMarre Carroll begins with the fourth-year player from Old Dominion. Bazemore actually started 10 games last season, and he proved to be a capable DFS roster fill-in during that time frame, averaging 10.2 points per game in that span.

My Lineup for Oct. 27:

Good luck! Please feel free to send your lineup questions to @mike_yaffe on Twitter.

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