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Portland Trail Blazers: 2015-16 Will Show The Real Damian Lillard

By Gerald Bourguet

Sep 28, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) poses during media day at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 28, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) poses during media day at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Portland Trail Blazers are heading into a brand new era starting with this current rebuilding stage. General manager Neil Olshey was wise to pull the trigger on a roster rehaul over the summer when he realized LaMarcus Aldridge was moving on, jumpstarting the process with the Nicolas Batum trade. After an offseason of aiming younger, the Blazers are essentially Damian Lillard and spare parts now.

Let’s get this out of the way right from the start: the 2015-16 Portland Trail Blazers are not a playoff team in the insanely competitive Western Conference. While it’s admirable for Lillard to set that lofty goal as his expectation, it just isn’t happening for a team that lost four of its five starters from last season, not to mention the player they wanted to be their sixth man in Arron Afflalo.

A quick look at the roster provides hope, but not for 2015-16. C.J. McCollum (24) and Meyers Leonard (23), who both showed great promise in the playoffs last year, will both be taking on expanded roles as starters. Mason Plumlee (25) will get his chance to prove his ongoing development off the bench.

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Noah Vonleh (20) is still raw, but he’s extremely young and will have the opportunity to develop in a rebuilding environment where he won’t be rushed. Maurice Harkless (22) will get his NBA shot after failing to find his niche among all the forwards the Orlando Magic had. Al-Farouq Aminu (25) is out to prove last year’s playoff series was no fluke and rookies Pat Connaughton (22) and Cliff Alexander (19) are, well, still rookies.

Where in that roster makeup is anybody seeing a playoff team?

The fact of the matter is, that’s okay. Sure, the Blazers have a couple of seasoned veterans like Gerald Henderson, Ed Davis and Chris Kaman, but do any of them really turn the tide with the West so stacked? The answer is no. And again, that’s okay.

To that end, the 2015-16 season is really all about development, but the truth is, it might teach us far more about the player that Damian Lillard is than anything else. With Aldridge moving on this summer, Lillard is the official and undisputed face of the franchise now.

The weight of this rebuild rests on his shoulders at age 25, and this season will give the world a fair indicator of whether he’s capable of being this guy on a more consistent basis:

There’s no question that Lillard is one of the best offensive point guards in the league. Last season, he averaged a well-rounded 21.0 points, 6.2 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game — except for assists, those were all career highs.

There’s also no doubt that the Blazers had to re-sign him to a five-year deal worth an estimated $120 million to keep Rip City’s cornerstone in place. Lillard isn’t done growing yet as a player and even in a rebuilding effort, having one star-caliber player who’s a two-time All-Star and one-time Third Team All-NBA selection is vital to restoring hope after four of five starters left this summer.

But there’s also reason to doubt whether Lillard can ever be the best player on a championship team, even if all the young players on this new roster pan out even better than expected.

For one thing, Lillard is a woeful defender whose effort completely fell off the map down the stretch of the season. With Wesley Matthews out, Lillard’s inability to prevent penetration by the talented point guards of the West was the biggest reason for the collapse of Portland’s defense at the end of the year. There won’t be a Wes Matthews around to cover for him anymore.

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On the offensive end, Lillard is so dangerous because he can get his shot off at any time. He possesses the rare ability to pull up from three-point range in a flash and he vastly improved his finishing touch around the basket — a clear weakness from his first two seasons in the league. In fact, Lillard made a career-best 50 percent of his two-point shots last season.

Per Basketball-Reference.com, Lillard improved his accuracy from within three feet of the basket to 64.2 percent last year — a sizable upgrade from the 52.1 percent he posted on such attempts in 2013-14.

However, Lillard’s patented three-point shooting let him down last season, despite all his progress around the rim. Dame only shot 34.3 percent from downtown on a whopping 7.0 attempts per game. That kind of mix of high volume shooting and inefficiency is exactly what we might see this year, only taken to new heights as the burden of the offense — and the team’s overall success — is placed squarely on his shoulders.

Isn’t it kind of bothersome that Lillard’s 43.4 percent from the field last year was a career high for his first three seasons in the league? Without elite talent around him now, can Lillard really be expected to increase his efficiency with an influx of extra shot attempts heading his way?

Basketball is a team game and in today’s NBA, you need at least two star-caliber players to win a championship. The Blazers only have one in Damian Lillard, and the 2015-16 season will see him become acclimated to running the show by himself.

Even a look at the preseason shows the juxtaposition between his potential and his limitations. In Portland’s most recent contest, Lillard finished with 22 points and six assists in a win over the Golden State Warriors…but he went 3-for-18 from the floor. He made 15 of an encouragingly high 17 free throw attempts…but went 1-for-6 from three-point range.

The fact that he hoisted 18 shots (and 17 free throws) in only 28 minutes hints at a season where Lillard just might go all Kobe Bryant and lead the NBA in field goal attempts.

We all know that Lillard can make clutch, extremely difficult baskets. We know he’s a good shooter despite his off year from three-point range last season. But there’s also cause for concern that he’ll slip into an inefficient shooting role by necessity on a team that doesn’t have a lot of offense. There’s even more reason to worry about his defensive effort on a team that will probably lose quite a bit.

It’d be entirely unfair to judge Lillard’s capabilities as a franchise player based on a rebuilding season that likely ends in the draft lottery, but the 2015-16 campaign will be one to judge Dame by nevertheless. Is he an inefficient gunner who doesn’t play defense? Or is he the talented marksman who will continue to improve his all-around game and emerge as this team’s leader?

This rough upcoming season will be something of an indicator that shows us what the real Damian Lillard looks like.

Next: NBA: Top 10 MVP Candidates In 2015-16

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