NBA: Top 10 Candidates For MVP In 2015-16

It takes teamwork, defense, three-point shooting, a little luck and a top-10 player to win in the NBA. Over the years, we’ve learned this is the basic formula for winning a championship. Basketball is a team sport, but very few teams in the history of this league have won a title without an elite superstar leading the charge.

To that end, the NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award is particularly telling about not only the association’s alpha dog from year to year, but also about the team that should theoretically compete for a championship, if only for the simple fact that they have the league’s best player that year.

ALSO ON HOOPSHABIT: The NBA’s 50 Greatest Players of All-Time

As we all know, it doesn’t always work out that way. Since the NBA started giving out the award in 1956, the MVP recipient has only gone on to win a championship in that same season 23 times. Over the last 15 seasons, it’s only happened four times, but interestingly enough, that has occurred in three of the last four seasons.

MVP voters are getting smarter, but dumbing it down to voting for the best player on the best team doesn’t quite explain this recent phenomenon either. We want our MVPs to be the best players, yes, but we also look for team success, efficiency, elite advanced statistics, charisma and narrative.

Bearing all these factors in mind, which players have the most likely odds of winning the next Most Valuable Player Award? Here’s a look at the top 10 MVP candidates for the 2015-16 season.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Paul, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Marc Gasol, Kyle Lowry

Next: No. 10

10. John Wall

Ever since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, the Washington Wizards have been right on the brink of bursting through their ceiling. When they upset the Chicago Bulls in a quick five-game series that year, and when they swept the Toronto Raptors the following year, there was buzz in Chocolate City for the first time since Michael Jordan played two seasons of charity basketball.

But both times, the Wizards’ promising postseason runs ended in a semifinal elimination. In their most recent exit, Washington had the upper hand against an imploding Atlanta Hawks team, but injuries to John Wall and Bradley Beal crippled their chances of advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 1979.

For John Wall to deserve a legitimate spot on this list, he’ll have to help the Wizards finally break through that barrier in 2015-16. It won’t be easy, since the Wizards are still a young team and the rest of the playoff field in the East improved this offseason.

But after averaging 17.6 points, 10.0 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game last year, Wall could easily put together an MVP campaign if he can lead the Wizards to a top-3 seed all while upping his stat line and improving that three-point shot.

Next: No. 9

9. DeMarcus Cousins

For the Sacramento Kings, the 2015-16 season will be all about disproving the growing sentiment that DeMarcus Cousins fits the “right player, wrong environment” stigma — a foul stench that’s hung over this franchise for almost a decade now. Based on the numbers alone though, Boogie would’ve been an MVP candidate last year.

Averaging 24.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals per game last season, Cousins joined Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Garnett, David Robinson and Bob McAdoo as the only players in NBA history to ever average a 24-12-3-1-1 stat line in a season. At age 25, Boogie is only going to get better from here.

The question is whether or not his ragtag Kings team can turn an Island of Misfit Toys into something special for Sactown. Keep in mind, Anthony Davis didn’t win MVP last year despite putting up even more efficient numbers and leading his New Orleans Pelicans to the postseason.

That means it’ll take something truly special from Boogie and the Kings to conjure up a legitimate MVP discussion, even if his individual numbers would be more than deserving.

Next: No. 8

8. LaMarcus Aldridge

Last year, LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.0 blocks per game on .466/.352/.845 shooting splits while leading the Portland Trail Blazers to a top-4 seed. This year, he’ll more than likely post the best overall numbers again, but this time, it’ll be for an elite Western Conference team that could finish at the top of the standings. So why is Aldridge so low in the rankings?

Unfortunately for L.A., he’s about to learn that with the San Antonio Spurs, there’s not a lot of room for the kind of one-on-one play that Aldridge has thrived on for years now. Over the last decade, San Antonio has only had three players reach the 20 points per game threshold in a season: Tony Parker in 2012-13, Parker again in 2008-09 and Tim Duncan in 2006-07. That’s it.

That trend will likely change with the arrival of Aldridge, the rise of Kawhi Leonard and the offseason loss of some of the Spurs’ patented depth, but you get the point: this team moves the ball. Their offense is based on a ton of movement that directly clashes with Aldridge’s ball-stopper tendencies.

There’s too much talent and brainpower at work here for Aldridge and the Spurs to NOT figure it out, but on a team that emphasizes ball movement and minutes restrictions, Aldridge might not be able to put together a statistically strong MVP campaign even if San Antonio does finish atop the standings.

Next: No. 7

7. Blake Griffin

Last season, it was Chris Paul’s turn to stir up some MVP chatter when Blake Griffin missed time with an elbow injury. The season before though, Blake Griffin finished third in MVP voting, averaging 24.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game on 52.8 percent shooting. Coming off an eye-opening playoff series, Griffin is a dark horse candidate for this award in 2015-16.

More from NBA

• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
• Constructing the NBA’s perfect all-under-25 starting five
• Grading every NBA team’s highest draft pick in the last five years

True enough, his numbers dipped to 21.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game last season, but he also posted a career-high 5.6 assists per game and was probably the best player in the playoffs through the first two rounds, channeling his inner Magic Johnson with CP3 ailing to average 25.5 points, 12.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals per game.

The Flyin’ Lion was absolutely magnificent in the postseason last year, so even though his Los Angeles Clippers choked away a 3-1 series lead, he has to be considered a stout candidate for MVP this season. He’s only 26 years old, he’s got one of the best supporting casts in the NBA and if the Clippers surge to a top-3 record in the West again, it’ll be hard to leave Griffin out of the conversation.

Having a player of Chris Paul’s caliber on the same roster slightly diminishes Griffin’s chances here, but look around the West. EVERY team at the top of the food chain has another superstar-caliber player alongside their best player. That’s just the nature of the West these days, and bearing that in mind, Griffin has a shot at MVP — even if that shot feels like a long one right now.

Next: No. 6

6. Russell Westbrook

If you’re still of the opinion that Russell Westbrook‘s playing style is what’s holding the Oklahoma City Thunder back, it was probably hard to see his outstanding 2014-15 season with your head buried underneath that rock. The NBA doesn’t often enjoy players who average a league-leading 28.1 points, 8.6 assists, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game, after all.

His critics will point to his inefficient shooting (42.6 percent from the field, 29.9 percent from three-point range). They’ll emphasize his high turnover count. But most of all, they’ll remind everyone the Thunder missed the playoffs. Remember when Kevin Durant led OKC to 59 wins and the second seed in the West in 2013-14 with Westbrook missing 36 games? THAT’S what an MVP looks like. Maybe for Durant, but not for Westbrook:

Besides, that logic is entirely unfair. So what, Westbrook isn’t a legitimate MVP because he’s not Kevin Durant? Because in his first season of running the show by himself — without the second best player in basketball — his damn near triple-double wasn’t quite enough to get OKC in the playoffs in a brutally loaded and historically deep Western Conference? Give me a break.

For better or worse, Westbrook is basketball cocaine. His 14-13-8 line in his 22-minute preseason debut can attest to that. Durant’s return obviously hurts Westbrook’s potential MVP case, but if KD goes down again, the Thunder’s 40-27 record with Russ healthy (as opposed to 5-10 without him) could look even better in 2015-16 with an improved supporting cast around him.

Next: No. 5

5. Anthony Davis

This may seem a bit low for a player of Anthony Davis’ caliber, but that just goes to show how absolutely stacked this MVP debate will be in 2015-16. However, since there’s really no way to predict how high the Brow’s ceiling is at this point other than simply pointing upward at the sky, he could very easily climb to the top of the list after the first few weeks of the season.

After all, in just his third year in the league, Davis posted a Player Efficiency Rating on par with the greatest seasons that Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain ever turned in. This 22-year-old is going to run the league. It’s only a matter of time.

The only problem with Davis’ MVP campaign is that his team might not be successful enough in the loaded West to elevate the Brow above some of our other candidates. Can we really say the New Orleans Pelicans are a “lock” to make the playoffs under a new head coach, let alone finish with a top-4 record in the West? That might be what it takes to win Davis the MVP award.

Last year, the Anthony Davis established himself as the best power forward in the league, averaging 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, a league-leading 2.9 blocks, 2.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. But until the Pellies improve their defense into the top half of the league and work their way into contention for a top-4 playoff spot, the Brow will have to put up extraterrestrial numbers to lead the MVP pack.

Next: No. 4

4. Kevin Durant

There’s a lot riding on the 2015-16 season for Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Can KD overcome the Jones fracture that limited him to 27 games last year? Can he return to MVP form and lead the Thunder to the championship that’s eluded them since their first and only Finals appearance in 2012? And will it take a title to keep Durant in OKC for the long-term?

With Durant’s free agency looming over the Thunder like, well, thunderclouds, this season could become a circus even if KD does manage to stay healthy. But if the Thunder can just focus on basketball, a healthy KD plus a healthy Westbrook has generally been good for around 60 wins and a top seed in the West. To that end, Durant is easily a top MVP candidate if he’s truly back.

In 2013-14, KD submitted one of the greatest MVP seasons the league has seen, posting 32.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game on .503/.391/.873 shooting splits. Durant joined Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor as the only players to ever post a 32-7-5 stat line, and his team also won 59 games with Westbrook missing almost half the season.

Prime Kevin Durant is as good if not better than anyone in the NBA right now, and his team has a greater chance of success compared to Davis and the Pelicans. With the West getting tougher and the nature of Durant’s foot injury, the NBA world just needs to see him come back healthy before being able to fully buy in.

Next: No. 3

3. Stephen Curry

This might seem a little disrespectful to the league’s reigning MVP, but again, that just goes to show how stacked this conversation is. Plus, coming off a 67-win season, it’s not unreasonable to wonder how the Golden State Warriors can possibly top that kind of magical year. Winning back-to-back titles is the obvious answer, but the MVP Award is a regular season award.

To that end, Stephen Curry would have to find a way to improve on the 23.8 points, 7.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game he averaged last year. Maybe joining the 50-40-90 club for the first time would help (Curry’s field goal percentage was 1.3 percent shy last year), but with so much elite talent to choose from for MVP, voter fatigue is as prevalent now as it’s ever been.

Bearing that in mind, Chef Curry and the Warriors have to find a way to up the ante in 2015-16 if he’s going to win consecutive MVP Awards. That could mean increasing his scoring numbers, decreasing his turnovers, joining the 50-40-90 club or leading the Dubs to another 65-plus wins. Luckily, it appears there’s no sense of entitlement in the Golden State camp, and all this recent talk about luck will have Curry and the Warriors plenty motivated to defend their title.

Curry isn’t done growing as a player, and the young Warriors could be on the verge of establishing a new reign in the NBA. But there were plenty of people who thought James Harden did more with less last season, and if the Dubs continue to demolish opponents like they did last year, that minutes restrictions that Steve Kerr implements could limit Curry’s numbers and therefore, his standing in this debate.

Next: No. 2

2. James Harden

Whether it’s his playing style, his perceived lack of leadership, the time he kicked LeBron James in the groin or simply that unkempt beard, James Harden isn’t the most beloved superstar in the NBA by any stretch.

But since the Beard posted 27.4 points, 7.0 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game last season…on .440/.375/.868 shooting splits…while leading the Houston Rockets to the second seed in the West…with Dwight Howard missing half the season…yeah, he’s a bonafide MVP candidate. And you know what? He’s not wrong to feel the way he does about last year’s MVP Award:

That’s not to say that Curry was undeserving of last year’s MVP Award. When a team wins 67 games and is led by a player of Curry’s caliber, the honor was warranted. But Harden did more with less last season, led his team to the Western Conference Finals and with the addition of Ty Lawson, is in a great position to step up as more of a vocal leader in 2015-16 on a very deep team.

Assuming his recent knee contusion is no big deal, Harden has the motivation, talent and supporting cast around him to put together another strong MVP campaign this year. The Rockets might not finish second in the West again, but if Harden can thrive alongside Lawson and not simply coexist, the Beard could make good on his bold offseason comments.

Next: No. 1

1. LeBron James

All the talk about Curry vs. Harden — not to mention excitement about KD’s return and Davis’ ascension to demigod status — has made everyone forget about a player who could very easily take home his fifth MVP Award in 2015-16: LeBron James. You know, the guy that averaged 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game in the NBA Finals this past June.

True enough, the Cleveland Cavaliers might not rampage through the East as expected thanks to injury problems for Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert to start the season. Hell, Kevin Love will barely be healthy for opening night. But as we’ve seen in the past, Cavs teams relying solely on LeBron James usually leads to some kind of individual hardware for the King.

At age 30, James’ best individual seasons might be behind him, but he still finished third in the MVP voting last year after averaging 25.3 points, 7.4 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game on .488/.354/.710 shooting splits. Those certainly aren’t the best numbers we’ve seen from King James, but they’re not far behind what Curry, Harden and Davis put up last year.

If he can get his shooting numbers back into the ultra-efficient territory we’ve grown accustomed to, and if he can lead the Cavs to the No. 1 seed in the East despite Kyrie missing significant time it’ll be hard to ignore his case for yet another MVP Award in 2015-16.

Next: NBA: Top 10 Candidates For 2015-16 Defensive Player Of The Year

More from Hoops Habit

• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
• NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers