2015-16 Fantasy NBA Preview: Centers
The NBA center position has undergone a radical transformation over the last couple of decades. We didn’t realize how spoiled we were to have had Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson and other greats in the league at the same time. When their respective teams met on Sunday afternoon, everyone tuned in to watch the battle of the big men.
The position was so solidified back then that shock waves were sent through the sports world when it was learned that “undersized” college athletes like Alonzo Mourning and Chris Webber would man the middle for their respective lineups. No one could fathom how these apparent power forwards could thrive in one-on-one matchups in the elite centers’ world.
While ‘Zo and C-Webb never won championships, their initially iconoclastic presence in the middle of smaller lineups would soon typify what today’s NBA has become: a more guard-driven, wide open game.
The three point line was pushed back to prevent swarming defenses from rotating to open shooters as quickly; the illegal defense technical was eradicated, allowing for zone-based schemes that had been restricted to the college level; and perhaps most importantly, the sheer availability of high ceiling performers at the position began to dwindle.
So who’s left to play center in the NBA? For some teams, defensive specialists are employed who are on the floor to alter shots and grab rebounds. For others, they have a really tall shooter that can lure the opponent’s big to the perimeter and open the lane for a slashing guard. And lastly, we have the “space eater” who is there to set picks and maybe produce the occasional garbage bucket from loose balls near the rim.
For fantasy purposes, the best centers this coming season are actually those who more closely mirror what Mourning and Webber were like when they played center back in the day – capable of scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking – but within the context of today’s NBA where the game is wide open and the one-on-one matchups of the glory days have been replaced by exotic defensive schemes.
If you don’t grab one of the elite options early in your draft, you’ll be reduced to utilizing the center slot on a rotational basis to support whichever category in which you’re lacking stats, or whoever’s team has the most games with the most favorable matchups for the week ahead. Similarly in DFS you will need to use the center position as a value slot if you’re not willing to pay up for the higher upside.
The Elite
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings – Unless Anthony Davis is center eligible in your league, “Boogie” is the top option among the elite, and it’s not even a close race. He averaged 24.1 PPG and 12.7 RPG last go-round, both career highs but consistent with the prior season. Listed at 6’11” and 270 pounds, Cousins is probably the closest thing the NBA has to a throwback center given his size and ability to fill the stat sheet.
In terms of DFS, Cousins is the equivalent of James Harden or Anthony Davis at his position; you either build your lineup around his hefty price tag, or you fade him. I have a tendency on FanDuel to fill guard positions first because they are on top of the screen, leaving me no choice but to look for lower cost options by the time I get to the front court, so to employ Cousins I literally have to work backwards and rethink my lineup philosophy from there.
The reality is that Cousins has as high a ceiling, if not higher than the other top tier studs because his team is not as deep. Rudy Gay’s numbers might suffer with the addition of Rajon Rondo because he won’t be handling the ball as often, but since Rondo is a pass-first point guard his objective will be to get the ball in Cousins’ hands so he can finish at close range.
In addition, The Sacramento Bee reports that Cousins will be shooting more three pointers this year, which would be a bonus for those in both rotisserie leagues (for category juice) and daily leagues on nights when his scoring receives a boost. Even though Cousins states in the article that he doesn’t consider himself a center, the important thing is that your fantasy league probably still does, which will enable you to maximize his value for your squad.
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz – Other than the Oklahoma City Thunder, no one profited more from the Enes Kanter trade than Rudy Gobert, who broke free of a timeshare in the process. As a shot-blocking specialist who came straight to the NBA from France, Gobert’s overall numbers of 8.4 PPG and 9.5 RPG last season don’t project as “elite”, but once the training wheels were off he began to rattle off double-double games more often, reaching season highs of 20 points (twice) and a whopping 24 boards on March 3rd vs. Memphis, with the opponent making the latter stat even more salient given the Grizzlies’ defensive prowess.
As is the case with his power forward counterpart Derek Favors, Gobert’s scoring upside is limited by the Jazz’s version of “stall ball”, in which the pace of the game is deliberately slowed to prevent a score-fest. Gobert is a fine option for both weekly and daily leagues this coming season, but if there are projected high-scoring games on the docket outside the Jazz’s matchup it might be best to fade him on those nights given the anticipated cap hit.
Nicola Vucevic, Orlando Magic – The last of the Magic’s skill players to make the preview lists is certainly not the least valuable. While Vucevic was a relative unknown playing for a losing team last season, he became popular among fantasy NBA enthusiasts, and he was often the most expensive center option on FanDuel on nights that Cousins wasn’t playing.
Unlike Gobert who exploded onto the scene after the trade deadline, Vucevic was steady all season long, averaging a double-double (19.3 PPG and 10.9 RPG) for 2014-15. Despite the apparent consistency, Vucevic is pretty much a two-category performer as he garners surprisingly few blocks given his seven-foot frame. Still, his ability to score coupled with the Magic’s lack of depth outside the top 5-6 players makes him suitable for both weekly and DFS leagues on the majority of nights.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies – When the Grizzlies traded Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers the deal initially appeared lopsided, as Pau and Kobe Bryant went on to win an NBA championship, but now it’s the Grizzlies who are having the last laugh as Marc has become an all-star caliber center, Pau now plays for the Chicago Bulls, and the Lakers are rebuilding.
While Marc may have been lost in the shuffle among the elite centers of the recent past, the current lack of hall of fame caliber options at the position makes him elite among today’s big men. His 17.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game are mitigated somewhat by sharing floor space with Zach Randolph, but Marc’s 1.6 blocks per game are well ahead of Z-Bo’s limited ability in that regard.
For weekly leagues Marc Gasol’s draft stock is higher due to his consistency, but in daily leagues there are usually options available with higher potential. I had a tendency to put him in my FanDuel lineup with Randolph as a mini-stack, but generally I found his numbers to be disappointing by comparison, so this time around in DFS my initial inclination is to reserve Pau’s brother for nights when there is limited depth at the five-spot.
Second Tier Options
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks –The case could be made for Horford to be included with the elite group, but at 6’10”/245, Horford strikes me as an athletic power forward type who initially played center out of necessity then made a career out of it, given the level of competition and the modern style of play.
As a result, his contributions of 15.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG last season were probably acceptable among centers, but it should be noted that despite the team’s success his numbers have declined a bit since his career highs of 17.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG in 2012-13. At 29 years of age, Horford is by no means decrepit, but statistically he is past his prime and perhaps we are witnessing the start of his decline.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat – Whiteside took the FanDuel world by storm when he burst onto the scene last season, as his price went from budget buy to extravagant over the course of a few weeks. A sparsely used player in Sacramento and in 2014 by Miami, Whiteside began receiving regular minutes this past January as the Heat were ravaged by injuries.
When given the chance, Whiteside achieved season highs of 24 points (twice), 24 boards (twice) and an impressive triple-double vs. the Chicago Bulls on January 25th in which he produced 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocks. Given the Bulls’ defensive reputation, Whiteside is clearly not matchup dependent.
The concern with Whiteside, as with several Miami Heat players, is his health. While injuries to his teammates provided him with an opportunity to shine in the first place, Whiteside himself missed 10 games in the 2015 half of the season alone. In addition, he is currently battling a calf ailment that has him listed as “day to day” but has kept him from participating in the preseason to this point.
Not surprisingly, then, Whiteside is best suited for DFS games in which he is listed in the starting lineup and his health appears to be reasonably stable. While there are no guarantees that any NBA player is safe from injury, Whiteside’s limited professional history combined with his penchant for missing games during that time frame certainly raise questions regarding his durability for the upcoming season.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets – Lopez had an inconsistent 2014-15 that that was typified by his inability to crack the starting lineup much of the time (only 44 starts in 72 games played), but despite the timeshare with Mason Plumlee he provided some strong performances down the stretch and finished with season averages of 17.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game.
Plumlee has since been traded to the Portland Trail Blazers this past June, which should put Lopez back in the driver’s seat, albeit with some competition from newcomer Andrea Bargnani. Still, Lopez is a suitable mid-round draft pick for H2H and Rotisserie leagues, but his viability for DFS hinges upon whether he can maintain the starting gig over the course of the upcoming season.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons – Now that Greg Monroe is out of the picture, Drummond finally has the paint to himself. But is that a good thing or a bad thing? Ersan Ilyasova, Monroe’s replacement, is more of a stretch four, and while backup Anthony Tolliver is more of a banger he lacks Monroe’s size, so the Pistons have lost their dynamic inside presence on defense in favor of a more traditional spread offense for point guard Reggie Jackson to run.
On the surface, fantasy owners would hope that Drummond won’t be losing rebounds like Marc Gasol loses to Zach Randolph on the Grizzlies’ roster, but the downside is that opponents won’t have to worry about boxing out both Drummond and Monroe at the same time.
A similar situation occurred in Dallas last year, when the Mavericks traded away Brendan Wright to the Boston Celtics as part of the Rajon Rondo deal last year. While much was made of Rondo’s inability to gel with his new team, Wright’s absence in the frontcourt put too much of the onus on Tyson Chandler to fulfill the center’s responsibilities by himself, and the team actually suffered on both ends of the court as a result.
Drummond could easily finish the season as an elite option at center, but as the Mavericks found out last year, the trade-off isn’t always a recipe for success. Consequently, I would be loath to draft Drummond as a season-long option but in daily leagues he could certainly be valuable when the matchup is right.
Other players to consider
- Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder – He thrived last season when he and Russell Westbrook did most of the scoring, but what will happen with the lineup back at full strength?
- Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls – Noah is a defensive maven but he is a secondary scoring option on a team with a crowded frontcourt.
- Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets – Traditionally he has thrived with the middle to himself, but at 30 years of age he may be showing signs of wear and tear.
- DeAndre Jordan, LA Clippers – He had some “elite” moments last season, but his ceiling was much higher while Blake Griffin was out of the lineup.
- Zaza Pachulia, Dallas Mavericks – Unlike Jordan he is a capable free throw shooter, and someone has to do the scoring for this team while their top players are injured.
Next: Ranking all 30 Starting NBA Centers
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