2015-16 Fantasy NBA Preview: Power Forwards
Anthony Davis was a high-profile lottery pick due to his success at Kentucky, having led the team to an NCAA championship during his impressive tenure there; however the name recognition didn’t immediately translate into instant notoriety as an NBA player in New Orleans despite his respectable numbers (13.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks per game), partially because he played for a moribund Hornets team and partly because he missed 22 games that season due to a knee injury.
His sophomore campaign (after the New Orleans Hornets became the Pelicans), Davis improved upon his rookie totals with an impressive double-double average of 20.8 PPG and 10.0 RPG to go with 2.8 blocks per game, which was buoyed in part by a 40 point/21 rebound performance in an overtime game vs. the Boston Celtics, and he became an alternate All-Star Game selection due to a Kobe Bryant injury.
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The down side was that Davis missed 16 games that season himself due to a variety of ailments (hand, ankle, and back), so despite all the accolades the pundits started to wonder if Davis could handle the punishment inside the paint over the course of his anticipated rise to stardom.
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In 2014-15 Davis again improved upon his numbers, delivering 24.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 2.9 blocks per game, on a Pelicans squad that surpassed the Oklahoma City Thunder for the final playoff seed in the Western Conference. In the process, Davis not only became a household name, he became a dark horse in the MVP discussion.
The increased level of success was accompanied by health-related concerns yet again, as Davis missed 14 games due to a shoulder issue this time. The reduced number of missed games looks like an improvement on paper, but the apparent upward trend is actually misleading because the games missed were divided by the All-Star break, and Davis had to sit out the All-Star Game as well.
So while Davis sits atop the list of elite power forward options for the upcoming season, the question is not, “Will he stay healthy?” but rather, “How many games will he miss this time around?”
The Pelicans’ organization clearly believes he is capable of longevity, having signed him to a five-year extension that doesn’t kick in until 2016-17, but is he a similarly viable option in your keeper or dynasty leagues?
The response is essentially a mixed bag; for rotisserie leagues the answer is probably no because his overall points and rebound totals (despite the high averages) will be jeopardized by his propensity for injury, but in weekly leagues where you have the option of benching him in favor of a healthy substitute he is a more than suitable roster addition.
The ideal scenario for Davis, then, has to be daily leagues where you can monitor his health more closely and add him to your roster when you’re certain he will be on the floor. It seems almost cruel that a player of his caliber would need to be micro-managed at such a young age, but at this juncture the trend cannot be ignored.
Hopefully this season Davis will show the world that his injuries were merely circumstantial, but until then he is best suited for DFS games.
The Elite
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans – When he is in the starting lineup, Davis has to be considered the front runner among top tier power forwards. Similar to the scenario for James Harden, Davis’ exorbitant price tag on FanDuel last season meant that he was either the cornerstone of my DFS lineup or deliberately faded.
When your lineup consists of a highly priced option like Davis (say $11 million to $12 million) you are banking on that person to produce what two mid-level options combined would give you to account for the fact that he will mainly be surrounded by complementary players.
Unlike reality where the “soft” salary cap allows NBA teams to exceed the threshold if they are willing to pay a luxury tax, ironically you are not provided that level of flexibility in fantasy.
When the series of daily forecasts and tips begins, we’ll look more closely at how selecting someone like Davis or James Harden impacts your roster, based on the “value” options that available at the remaining positions, especially if both Harden and Davis are playing on the same night.
It is nearly impossible to be in the winners’ bracket with the highly-priced duo in the lineup (if that’s even feasible), but fading both in cash games can be a recipe for failure as well if one of them is owned by the majority of your opponents and they produce an amazing stat line that night.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers – It seems like a lifetime ago that the Clippers drafted Griffin No. 1 overall, only to lose him for the entire 2009-10 season. “Same old Clippers,” we all thought, as they seemed to have drafted the next Michael Olowokandi.
Griffin came back with a vengeance for his “rookie” campaign the following year, though, and it wasn’t long before he was known for thundering dunks and leaping over Kias.
Griffin’s recovery and ascendance into elite status seem to have paralleled the Clippers’ overall transformation from pretender to contender in recent years.
Although he did miss 15 games in 2014-15, the absence was mainly due to a staph infection in his right elbow that ultimately required minor surgery, so for the most part he has been surprisingly durable given the inauspicious start to his pro career.
Although he is mainly known for his inside game, Griffin’s free throw percentages have steadily increased from year to year, culminating in a career high of .728 in 2014-15. He’s not exactly Steve Nash, but he is no longer considered a liability in that regard either, so he certainly merits consideration for both Rotisserie and H2H Fantasy NBA leagues where FT% is a category.
While his free throw percentages have been on the rise over the years, his rebounding numbers have steadily declined, largely due to the presence of DeAndre Jordan as the primary beneficiary.
Had Jordan stayed true to his commitment to the Dallas Mavericks we probably would have seen an uptick in Griffin’s RPG, but considering Griffin was one of the players that allegedly held Jordan hostage in Houston until the decision was reversed, the personal stats are clearly secondary to Griffin relative to what’s best for the team if that story is to be believed.
When all is said and done, starting Griffin in DFS becomes a calculated risk. He will probably get you consistent scoring (20+ PPG every season but 2012-13) but he is not known as a shot blocker and his ability to grab rebounds can be limited by how often he is unintentionally boxed out by his own teammate.
On the plus side, he was more reasonably priced than Davis on FanDuel last season, so you’re able to surround him with more talent to compensate for his lower ceiling.
Paul George, Indiana Pacers – It definitely feels unnatural listing George under the power forward position, but apparently that’s what the Pacers intend to do, whether PG-13 is legitimately on board or not.
It does seem like a curious decision given the fact that George only played six games last season (none of which he started) after recovering from that brutal injury he incurred while playing for Team USA.
George’s penchant for getting knocked around inside notwithstanding, when you look at the Pacers’ depth chart the move suddenly makes more sense.
For all intents and purposes they are basically running out a “three guard” lineup with a troika from Monte Ellis, Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles and George Hill on the floor most of the time, and with the trade of 7’2” Roy Hibbert to the Lakers for a handful of magic beans, that leaves rookie shot blocker Myles Turner and Ian Mahinmi to patrol the paint, so utilizing George as a “stretch 4” was the only option due to the roster gap.
If Blake Griffin can come back from a serious knee injury, perhaps George will be OK, too. There is no doubting George’s potential, since he averaged 21.7 points, 6.8 boards, 3.5 assists and and 1.9 steals per game in 2013-14, but let’s face it, those are swingman numbers and he will be asked to play differently given the guard rotation behind him.
Dirk Nowitzki made the transition from the 3 to the 4 during his tenure as a Dallas Maverick, but Dirk is a true 7-footer who checks in at 25 pounds heavier than George this season.
With too many variables involving his transition (including his own perception of it) the prudent option for George is “wait and see.” If that’s the case, he should probably be reserved for DFS games on nights where he is not matched up versus a more stereotypical version of the role he seems destined to play, at least for now.
LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs – If citing Paul George among power forwards was awkward, referencing Aldridge in conjunction with the Spurs feels surreal. For starters, it will be interesting to see how he meshes with Tim Duncan, David West, and to a lesser extent, Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw in the frontcourt rotation.
On the Trail Blazers, Aldridge’s role was clear-cut because the centers were not as gifted offensively, and along with point guard Damian Lillard, Aldridge did most of the scoring.
But with the Spurs’ new collection of bigs, Aldridge could easily have quiet games that don’t impact the overall outcome, which would jeopardize his value to fantasy owners.
Indeed, the Spurs seem to have one of those “team before the individual” cultures where championships are more highly valued than individual achievements, which can certainly be attributed to their continued success.
As is the case with small forward Kawhi Leonard, Aldridge is best suited for DFS games where other key players are either rested or out with injury.
If coach Gregg Popovich suddenly hands the reins to Aldridge as the focal point of the offense, then by all means trade for him in your head to head leagues; but for now Aldridge, like Leonard, is probably destined to be part of the machine until two to three years from now when they become part of the new core.
Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies –When Rasheed Wallace was traded to the Pistons before their improbable upset of the star-studded L.A. Lakers in the 2004 NBA finals, “Z-Bo” was thought to be Wallace’s heir apparent in Portland. Randolph was never the superstar Wallace was in Portland but he put up some respectable “second tier” numbers during his tenure there.
Randolph’s value was never really appreciated until the Grizzlies eliminated the Spurs from the NBA Playoffs in 2011 as an eight-seed. The Grizz were lacking then featured player Rudy Gay, which had morphed them into more of a defense-first team, and that became such a recipe for success that they ended up trading Gay to the Toronto Raptors afterwards.
While the Grizzlies saved cap room in the deal, it was their ability to succeed without Gay that made the deal palatable to the fan base.
Today Randolph and center Marc Gasol form an elite power pair that plays effectively on both ends of the court. Whereas Blake Griffin loses rebounds to DeAndre Jordan, it’s Randolph who has the advantage over his accomplice in that regard, which is why Randolph is among the best at his position.
As a result, Randolph can be a suitable fantasy option for both daily and weekly leagues, as he is generally durable, and on the Grizzlies’ roster he gets opportunities to produce on a daily basis. The down side is that Memphis’ defensive style tends to stifle scoring opportunities and they may be content to win ugly at times.
Z-Bo is not much of a shot blocker either, so you’ll have to pair him with a specialist if that’s a rotisserie category for you.
Second Tier Options
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers – Noel is on the cusp of being elite but he is not quite there yet. His overall numbers for last season (9.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG) are not that impressive but when you consider how atrocious last year’s Sixers team was in general, some inconsistency in the rookie’s stat lines was to be expected.
A closer look at some of his standout performances might be a truer indicator of his potential. If his season highs of 30 points (vs. LAC), 17 boards (vs. ATL) and 9 blocks (vs. IND) are flashes of what’s to come, then I am on board with him. Do I think he can average 30 and 17?
Of course not, but a double-double (points and rebounds) average with a decent block total would make him more than serviceable in those categories.
Joining Noel in the Sixers’ frontcourt this season is highly touted rookie Jahlil Okafor from Duke. Both athletes seem to merit the F/C designation, depending on where they’re referenced, so it remains to be seen how they’ll be categorized on FanDuel this time around.
Given that Noel logged heavy minutes regardless of the point differential in the game last season, I would anticipate more of the same for both Noel and Okafor until the team becomes competitive again.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks – Much like Zach Randolph, Millsap is a steady performer on a team that can play good defense. The Hawks were the surprise of the Eastern Conference last season, finishing as the top seed but ultimately losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers in four games.
Despite their success, the Hawks roll out a surprisingly thin lineup that doesn’t have much talent past the top 6-7 players. Although newcomer Tiago Splitter will provide some frontcourt support, the team will be relying on Kent Bazemore and Thabo “not guilty” Sefolosha to replace the underrated DeMarre Carroll at small forward.
It remains to be seen whether the Hawks can duplicate their success from last season, but Millsap’s clear-cut niche should allow him to provide continued scoring, rebounds and perhaps a couple of steals per game on a regular basis.
His consistency makes him a worthy DFS addition on most nights, and he’s fine for weekly leagues as well, but his ceiling just isn’t high enough to escape the “best of the rest” moniker.
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Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz – I am bullish on Favors this season based on the all-around numbers he was able to provide for the Jazz last season. The erstwhile lottery pick out of Georgia Tech has turned out to be a nice acquisition for the team after his cup of coffee in New Jersey prior to the Deron Williams trade.
As can be the case with “one and done” NBA draftees, Favors took a while to emerge as a viable power forward, but last season’s 16.0 PPG (which has increased each season), 8.2 RPG and 1.7 blocks per game are what typify a second tier option, in my opinion.
To some extent, his numbers may have been compromised a bit while Enes Kanter was still on the roster, but since he missed a handful of games with back issues towards the end of the season that trend would have been difficult to identify.
Assuming his back ailments are a thing of the past, Favors should be considered worthy of most weekly and daily fantasy rosters this coming season. He was able to produce 16 points and nine boards in just 24 minutes in the pre-season opener, so hopefully that’s a harbinger of things to come.
Other Players to Consider
- Julius Randle, LA Lakers – There is a lot of Griffin-esque hype surrounding this 20 year-old, considering he was lost for his rookie season after one game.
- Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers – He’s been cleared to practice but it’s too early to tell if he’s ready to contribute at an all-star level yet.
- Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets –He is smallish (read: a tweener, not a stretch four), but he can provide scoring and rebounds when the matchup is right.
- Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns – If he’s not disgruntled he can be effective.
- Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls – If he’s out of the lineup then Nikola Mirotic is a must-add instead.
Next: NBA: Top 10 Candidates For 2015-16 Rookie Of The Year
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