2015-16 Fantasy NBA Preview: Small Forwards

With his 13th season and his 31st birthday on the horizon, all conversations regarding small forward ownership in fantasy basketball still begin and end with LeBron James. While his longevity in the league could be attributed to his lack of college experience, in all likelihood he would have been a “one-and-done” underclassman if he were subject to the mandatory age cutoff anyway.

Adding to the mileage on his tread is his postseason experience from the 2005-06 campaign onward, with no fewer than 20 playoff games started since the 2009-10 season. When you factor in his Olympic gold medal run on the second Dream Team, his ability to carry last season’s Cavs team to the NBA finals as the “last man standing” on his ballclub was truly legendary.

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Greatest all-time NBA player debates used to come down to Wilt Chamberlain vs. Michael Jordan, but after LeBron was able to keep the Cavs competitive in the finals despite working with a handful of spare parts, he has staked his claim to being in that discussion as well.

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The Chamberlain/Jordan debate always seemed to go nowhere because you had to compare a guard and a center from two totally different eras. Sure, Chamberlain had a 100-point game, but could he have dropped 100 points on Patrick Ewing or Shaquille O’Neal?

Chamberlain has since become the forgotten man in this argument because he has fallen multiple generations behind the LeBron advocates, who may or may not have seen Jordan’s rise to fame, either. The fact that Phil Jackson was able to win multiple titles with Shaq and Kobe Bryant after his successes with the Bulls may have diluted Jordan’s legend as well.

At the end of the day I am still touting Jordan over LeBron because he won multiple titles for the Bulls with a revolving cast of characters (at center, in particular), and LeBron still has work to do in Cleveland since he hasn’t provided them with success in the Finals yet.

Yes, the championships LeBron won in Miami were largely due to his overtaking Dwyane Wade as the best player on the team, but until he can win one for his hometown Cavs, I say Jordan’s claim to best of all-time remains intact.

Regardless of which player was the best of their generation, LeBron still is a premier option at small forward for both head to head and DFS Fantasy NBA leagues for the upcoming season.

Unlike the top choices at shooting guard, where there is only one truly elite option, fantasy enthusiasts will generally have a handful of worthy choices in both the elite and second tier from which to choose on a given night.

The Elite

LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers – As previously stated, LeBron is still a top option at small forward despite his tenure in the league that has included deep playoff runs year after year. It will be a sad day once his decline becomes apparent, but for now he remains a viable building block whenever his team plays, as long as he is in the lineup.

As a result, I would be more inclined to use King James in DFS as opposed to weekly leagues, since he will probably receive more frequent days off in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder – Assuming he is ready to pick up where he left off, Durant is another elite option at the 3 spot. Whereas James basically can take over a game as a primary ball handler, Durant is more of a scoring specialist who is the perfect complement to the comparatively aggressive play of both Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.

That is not to say Durant is solely a spot-up shooter; but he is more of a creator that uses both height and athleticism to make difficult shots look easy as opposed to Westbrook, who generally either slashes to the basket or pulls up at the elbow when he’s not jacking up three-pointers, or Ibaka, who can throw it down from close range with the best of the post-up players when he’s not attempting a mid to long-range jumper himself.

Durant is usually among the league leaders in scoring, and his career high of 32.0 points per game in 2013-14 is probably closer to the version of him we’ll see this season as opposed to the 25.4 points per game he managed in just 27 games last year while fighting through injuries.

Although he is known for his offense, Durant has also averaged 6.6 rebounds per game throughout his career, so he is not just a one-way player. Since he is coming off a season-ending foot injury, KD isn’t ready to dethrone LeBron James for the top spot yet, but eventually one would think that day will come given the approximate four-year age difference.

Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks – Whether you love or hate ‘Melo, no one can deny his ability to score, and on a mediocre Knicks team most of the scoring will probably go through him again this year as they continue their rebuilding process.

That should suit Anthony just fine since he never met a shot he didn’t like, but for weekly and rotisserie leagues that have field goal percentage as a category, he could be a liability due to his propensity for “off” nights.

Although Anthony seems more one-dimensional from a category standpoint than Durant, he is still an elite option because he will need to take on scoring responsibility more frequently on a given night given his team’s lack of depth.

Seven-footer Kristaps Porzingis is still a project for now, and recent acquisition Robin Lopez is not a polished scorer like his twin brother Brook Lopez, so this year’s Knicks lineup is only looking to be slightly upgraded at this juncture.

Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings – Rudy Gay appeared to be more of a second-tier option with a low ceiling until George Karl took over the Kings last season.

Embracing the “point forward” philosophy previously employed by Don Nelson, Karl essentially turned Rudy Gay into a poor-man’s version of LeBron James last year, and the transformation on the stat sheet was immediately apparent.

While the team in general was outside of the playoff picture, Gay became a fixture in my DFS lineups when facing a team with a lesser frontcourt.

It remains to be seen how Rajon Rondo impacts the apparent chemistry between Rudy Gay and center DeMarcus Cousins (who were also FIBA World Cup teammates), and there have been ongoing rumors regarding Karl’s willingness to part with Cousins, but for now let’s take a glass half full approach and enjoy the fantasy riches while the core remains intact.

Second Tier Options

Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs – I toyed with the idea of listing Leonard among the elite options.

The Spurs have been amazingly adept at finding complementary players for their championship-quality core of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobilli and Tony Parker, transforming numerous retreads, late first-round picks and free agents on the cheap into legitimate contributors over the years.

Now that the trio is largely past their prime (at least on paper), Leonard looked like he was going to be charged with leading the next generation of Spurs stars when he signed a five-year max deal in the offseason.

Since Leonard was already a second tier option last year, it seemed like he was ready for a promotion to the elite as the heir apparent, but the Spurs’ offseason haul of both LaMarcus Aldridge and David West has suddenly created a glut of talent at the forward spots when you also factor in Boris Diaw and second-year player Kyle Anderson (the 2015 NBA Summer League MVP, and a late first round pick – my case in point) as rotational options on a given night.

Consequently, I think rather than take a step forward from a fantasy standpoint Leonard may get lost in the shuffle and his individual contributions may be inconsistent due to the number of accomplished veterans in the mix.

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Leonard certainly merits strong consideration for the right DFS situation, like the second of back-to-back games when players like Duncan are rested, but Leonard’s ascension to the elite ranks may have to be postponed until the inevitable attrition of one of their older players.

Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors – As with Kawhi Leonard, Green merited strong consideration for the upper tier, but as with the aforementioned Leonard and with Green’s teammate Klay Thompson (as discussed in the shooting guard preview), the strength of Green’s team is fantasy owners’ loss in his case as well.

I am a huge fan of Green, and unlike Thompson’s unintentional disappearing acts due to the Warriors’ depth, Green is a stat sheet “stuffer” whose overall value is based upon his ability to also provide consistent rebounds (8.2 per game last season) as well as a few assists and one or two blocked shots per game for good measure, so he is less likely to have an off night across all categories. “Donkey” is a fine option for DFS, Rotisserie and H2H leagues as a result.

Khris Middleton/ Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks – Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are similar players asked to play two different positions on the Bucks’ roster.

While Antetokounmpo was categorized as shooting guard on FanDuel last season, the “Greek Freak” is actually listed at 6’11”, so I included him in this discussion since Middleton checks in at a mere 6’8”.

Because of their size and athleticism, both Middleton and Antetokounmpo are capable of Draymond Green-like numbers, but since the Bucks’ roster lacks the depth of the reigning NBA champs, the duo will get more opportunities to contribute.

Despite their size, the two players did not have much luck against defense-oriented clubs last season, so they may be more of an “all or none” combo for DFS for now, at least until the 20-year old Antetokounmpo bulks up a bit and learns to use his height to his advantage.

Other Players to Consider

• DeMarre Carroll, Toronto Raptors – his level of responsibility could increase after coming over from a more talented Atlanta Hawks team.
• Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz – he is becoming a proven scorer but the team’s plodding style coupled with a strong frontcourt limit his contributions.
• Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets – like Hayward, he is the main scoring threat, but he’s in a timeshare with Wilson Chandler until the rotation is settled.
• P.J. Tucker, Phoenix Suns – can provide decent value at his price, especially with one less “Morris” on the roster.
• Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic – another comer on an improving Magic lineup, as his $64M extension would indicate.

Next: NBA Finals History: Ranking The Last 50 Champions

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