Houston Rockets: Over/Under, Title Odds Too Low

May 4, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) boxes out Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) in the second half in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Los Angeles Clippers won 117 to 101. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
May 4, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) boxes out Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) in the second half in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Los Angeles Clippers won 117 to 101. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports /
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Earlier this week, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released its 2015-16 NBA win totals, along with title odds for all 30 teams. Suffice it to say, the sportsbook believes that the rest of the Western Conference elite has passed by the Houston Rockets.

The Westgate set the Rockets’ over/under win total at 54.5, and has their title odds at 20-1. The win total places the Rockets behind the defending champion Golden State Warriors, who are at 60.5, the San Antonio Spurs at 58.5, the Oklahoma City Thunder at 57.5, and the Los Angeles Clippers at 56.5 wins.

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The Rockets’ title odds fall behind the Chicago Bulls, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Warriors, the Clippers, the Thunder, and the Spurs.

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It appears that Vegas is valuing the improvements that the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers have made this offseason than those of the Rockets. To recap, the Spurs added the prize of free agency, LaMarcus Aldridge, and the steal of the offseason in David West. They are, however, an aging team and head coach Gregg Popovich is known for resting his players.

That allows the Spurs to play well deeper into the offseason and staves off injuries and fatigue, but that still involves resting their stars 10-20 games per season. On top of that, point guard Tony Parker is clearly aging, as is shooting guard Manu Ginobili, and both players’ best days are behind them.

The Thunder lost Kevin Durant for most of last season and Russell Westbrook for a big chunk of it as well. Despite scratching and clawing their way back into contention, the Thunder fell short of the playoffs on the final night of the regular season. They’re healthy now, and they have a new coach in Billy Donovan. That will probably prove to be an upgrade, but there will be growing pains.

If that costs them games early, 57.5 may be a high total to hit.

The Clippers upgraded their bench from an unbelievable assortment of spare parts that didn’t fit to a pretty strong unit that won’t be the bane of their existence. Adding Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson to the bench was both savvy and fascinating, and the presence of Stephenson gives lots of potential for disaster.

To call that a high-risk/high-reward acquisition would be an understatement.

The Warriors are, well, the Warriors. I dare anybody to take the under on that 60.5 total. They might be better this year, and there isn’t much more to say about them.

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  • While it’s impossible to sell those teams short for the big moves they made, the Rockets were the walking wounded for most of the season and fought their way to the second seed in the deep and talented Western Conference. Like the Thunder, the Rockets are now healthy.

    Unlike the Thunder, Houston made a big acquisition and picked up Ty Lawson from the Denver Nuggets and, with all due respect to Nick Johnson and Pablo Prigioni, it didn’t cost them much.

    The Rockets accomplished what they did with only half a season out of Dwight Howard, and big chunks of the season were missed by Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones, among others.

    Getting more or less a full season out of these guys and the addition of a potent and motivated Lawson definitely seem to be factors that are underrated by Vegas, but shouldn’t be underrated by our readers.

    Most likely the Rockets will find themselves in the third or fourth seed, rather than the projected fifth seed. I would probably be tempted to swap the Rockets win total with that of the Clippers, and my suspicion is that the Spurs will lose a couple extra games due to players being “Popped” and the Thunder will have early growing pains.

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