2015-16 NBA Fantasy Outlook: Point Guards

Last season provided us with a full spectrum of how differently the 30 NBA teams allocated the usage of their point guards based on their talent levels and supporting casts, and in turn how fantasy owners valued them depended on whether they were worth an early round draft pick or a high DFS salary cap hit.

For example, Kyrie Irving (when healthy), was an integral part of Cleveland’s “Big 3”; on the plus side, that allowed plentiful assist opportunities with two additional stars in Kevin Love and LeBron James, as well as scoring specialists like J.R. Smith who could help spread the floor.

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Furthermore the limited ability of defenses to double team allowed Irving ample scoring chances as well. The down side for fantasy owners was that having so much talent on the roster meant that if LeBron decided to take over the game then Irving’s contribution would be limited that night.

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Since last year’s Cavs season was defined by ongoing injuries, which culminated in their entertaining finals run with LeBron as the last man standing, DFS owners could select Irving on nights when one or more key players were absent from the lineup, which provided a higher floor/higher ceiling opportunity; however, for weekly H2H matchups a single game spike might not be enough to overcome a couple of so-so games in the course of the same week.

A perfunctory glance at the game logs shows us Irving’s volatility, as for every explosive game (e.g., 55 points and five dimes on Jan. 28) there are at least one or two duds (10 points on 1-for-5 shooting vs. the L.A. Clippers, a game the Cavs won) within a few games on either side.

Another extreme case was the performance of Russell Westbrook, who was forced to shoulder the load during much of the regular season due the loss of both Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka.

Trading for Enes Kanter and D.J. Augustin certainly helped make the team competitive, but Westbrook answered any questions as to whether he could be “the man” by producing a litany of triple doubles reminiscent of Oscar Robertson’s heyday.

For regular season owners, Westbrook probably outperformed his average draft position since he might have been prone to more inconsistency (a la Irving) with more scoring help across the floor; but when the Oklahoma City Thunder were reduced to a skeleton crew, that allowed Westbrook to go on his ridiculous run.

The down side for DFS players was that Westbrook’s soaring price tag (upwards of $13M on FanDuel at one point) forced them to complement him with mainly spare parts, and the final tally could easily push someone outside the winner’s bracket in GPPs.

Last year was last year, though. Irving is still on the shelf with a knee issue and the Thunder is nearly back to full strength, as Ibaka has been cleared for training camp (as reported by Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman ) and Durant seems to be past his foot injury woes as well. In addition, the Thunder still have Kanter and D.J. Augustin to round out what has become a deep roster again.

Meanwhile, Stephen Curry leads the Warriors’ title defense, Chris Paul is still the trigger man on a potent Los Angeles Clippers team, and Damian Lillard is the new face of the Portland Trail Blazers following LaMarcus Aldridge’s defection to the San Antonio Spurs. It’s going to be an exciting season for NBA fans from a point guard standpoint, and for fantasy NBA enthusiasts, here are some of the preferred options:

Steph Curry led his Warriors team to an NBA championship. Can he do the same for your fantasy teams this year? Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

The Elite

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors – it should come as no surprise that Curry is an elite option since he is coming off an MVP season, and aside from David Lee (who had been reduced to a bench option) the Warriors are returning core players like fellow splash brother Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and a rejuvenated Andre Iguodala, who was a surprising contributor during their finals run.

Curry is a tremendous outside shooter (better than 42 percent from downtown every season), but the fact that his scoring ability is complemented by a knack for steals (2.0 average last year) and decent assist totals (7.7 APG last year) is what makes Curry an elite option for the upcoming season as well.

Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers – while Golden State was pounding opponents on their home court last season, the Clippers were busy making their own noise in Southern California as well. The longtime laughing stock of the NBA, the Clippers eventually put together the right mix of coaching and talent to surpass the Los Angeles Lakers as the better Staples Center denizens.

One could argue that the league’s rejection of CP3’s trade to the Lakers followed by his subsequent trade to the Clippers is a major reason for that shift in the balance of power, but whether he would have been able to co-exist with Kobe in the backcourt is probably still open for debate.

Regardless, CP3 is the spark plug that makes the Clippers’ engine run, and like Curry he provides an ample amount of scoring (19.1 PPG in 2014-15) assists (10.2 per game) and steals (1.9 per game in 2014-15, but usually averages 2+), and he also retained the talented core of surrounding players after DeAndre Jordan reneged on his verbal commitment to Dallas.

Regardless of how it all came together, Paul seems primed for another great season as the Clips’ quarterback.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder – As mentioned above, Westbrook’s stock rose when the Thunder’s resources were depleted last season, but I don’t believe that his floor necessarily drops that far with the return of Durant and Ibaka from injuries.

There will certainly be less scoring opportunities with Durant on the floor, but unlike King James, Durant mainly takes over games as a leading scorer vs. LeBron where the game basically flows through him when he becomes superhuman, so in Westbrook’s case it’s more of a two-man game with Durant vs. when Irving’s contributions would be completely minimized.

Ibaka’s outside shot has come a long way since he joined the league but Love is a legitimate three-point threat compared to the “Serge” Protector’s secondary scoring capability.

Moreover, Westbrook tended to crater down the stretch in close games (most likely due to exhaustion) when he was the focal point, so having a more complete lineup could allow him to be productive for longer stretches during crunch time, which seems like a fair trade-off to me.

The higher floor/lower ceiling trend could also make Westbrook’s price more palatable in daily leagues, allowing for a more complete lineup to augment his contributions.

John Wall, Washington Wizards– College basketball fans have been well aware of Wall’s potential since his days at Kentucky, but he is not a household name like the players above, probably due to his limited success in the playoffs so far. The Wizards have only made the postseason the last couple of years, vs. Paul’s Clippers, who have been there four straight.

Still, the arrow is pointing up for Wall’s Washington Wizards team, who will miss Paul Pierce’s veteran leadership but they have an embarrassment of riches at the swingman position to replace Pierce with more athletic options.

Unlike the ebbs and flows of Westbrook’s level of responsibility the offense has always been run through Wall in DC, so the team’s fortunes generally live and die based on Wall’s performances. Wall’s averages of 17.6 PPG, 10.0 APG, 4.6 RPG and 1.7 steals per game are generally consistent with the preceding years, so he is poised for an excellent all-around year for H2H, Rotisserie and DFS fantasy this season as his team continues its upward climb from mediocrity since his arrival.

Second Tier Options

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers– Lillard could probably have been considered “elite” last year but that was with LaMarcus Aldridge in the lineup. Now that he is relying on the likes of Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis to fill that frontcourt void, the balance of power is firmly under Lillard’s control. Is that a good thing or a bad thing though?

I don’t think anyone doubts Lillard’s ability or the way his scoring average has improved each season, but most NBA studs not named Allen Iverson need a second great player to be successful in the league and I’m not sure if that option is going to emerge this time around.

The cupboard is comparatively bare now that Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez and Wesley Mathews also have new teams.

Even on what pundits are projecting to be a bad roster, Lillard still commands respect, so perhaps he can still put up fantasy-worthy numbers this year given that he has to be the one to do it for this squad. I would expect a drop in FG% from the defensive focus that will be headed his way, but for now let’s just bump him from Elite to Second Tier because I think the high ceiling is still there for him.

Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons – The trade from OKC to Detroit seemed to agree with Jackson last year, as he basically became the poor man’s Westbrook on a team that also had limited depth.

It remains to be seen whether letting Greg Monroe walk after trading for Ersan Ilyasova will help the Pistons’ frontcourt because I’m not convinced that Marcus Morris (the “lesser” Morris) and 19-year old Stanley Johnson are ready to help fill that void, but regardless Jackson will continue to get his and his stock will continue to rise in both H2H and DFS games alike, as his dynamic talents are maximized by coach Stan Van Gundy.

Elfrid Payton and his ‘fro are expected to take it to the next level this season Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic – Speaking of non-household names, how many fans outside of the greater Orlando area and fantasy basketball circles are aware of this second-year player from Louisiana-Lafayette?

I was a huge fan of Payton for DFS games last year because on a young Magic team he was asked to wear a lot of hats while the team focused on developing new talent for much of the season.

You look at Payton’s overall numbers (8.9 PPG, 6.5 APG, 4.3 RPG) and they really don’t tell the story because of his limited contributions in the first month or so.

As the season progressed, Payton’s numbers began to take shape (e.g. 22 points and 12 assists vs. MEM on 1/16, back to back triple doubles on 3/18 and 3/20) and I think the latter games tell the story of the player Payton is becoming.

Orlando is quietly developing a very good lineup with Payton, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Nicola Vucevic, and all four players should be on everyone’s fantasy radar for the upcoming season.

Other Point Guards to Consider

Jeff Teague (Atlanta Hawks), Michael Carter-Williams (Milwaukee Bucks), Eric Bledsoe (Phoenix Suns) and Ricky Rubio (still with the Minnesota Timberwolves despite the recent trade rumors) are some other second-tier options to ponder, but they are probably better tailored for DFS play to exploit the best matchups. Kyle Lowry (Toronto Raptors) seems to have found a home on his third NBA team; he and DeMar DeRozan form a nice one-two punch in the backcourt, but their surrounding talent seems to have thinned out this year, so he might be best reserved for daily leagues as well.

Jrue Holliday (New Orleans Pelicans) has been plagued by injuries lately so it’s unclear how the team’s PG minutes will be divided with Tyreke Evans (who I’m saving for the shooting guard preview) and Norris Cole on the roster. Derrick Rose (CHI), when he recovers from his latest ailment (an orbital fracture that requires surgery), seems to be better suited for reality than fantasy NBA when on the floor.

Jordan Clarkson (LAL) had his moments on a bad Lakers team but it’s unclear how his numbers will be affected with D’Angelo Russell in the fold. I’m taking a wait and see approach on Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) as well, even with Ty Lawson out of the picture, and speaking of which, how much of a factor will Lawson (coming off his second recent DUI arrest) be for the Houston Rockets with the ball in James Harden’s hands most of the time?

Comments and questions are always welcome.

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2015-16 NBA Fantasy Outlook: Point Guards

By Michael Yaffe | Sep 30, 2015

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