Fantasy Basketball: Orlando Magic Preview

After another season of picking in the top-five of the NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic are thinking playoffs.

Orlando returns one of the most promising young cores in the league, with a bonafide fantasy star in Nikola Vucevic. Point guard Elfrid Payton has upside as a multi-category contributor while Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris remain high-potential options as wing scorers.

Although the team attempted to lure Paul Millsap away from Atlanta (he resisted), there were few impact signings by this club. C.J. Watson is the most notable of the bunch, and he should slot in as a dependable three-point threat behind Elfrid Payton. Shabazz Napier was acquired from Miami after a disappointing rookie year, and Jason Smith was signed for depth down low.

In 2015-16, the Magic will be without Moe Harkless (traded to Portland) and Kyle O’Quinn (traded to the Knicks). Neither had a role significant enough for standard league consideration, so nothing really changes aside from the back end of the depth chart there.

The 2015 draft yielded talented wing Mario Hezonja out of Barcelona, who will compete for playing time behind Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris. Tyler Harvey was a second-round selection, but he isn’t under fantasy consideration for now.

While Orlando will largely rely on in-house improvement, they hope that they can get a boost from their new head coach, Scott Skiles. Last we saw Skiles he was the coach in Milwaukee, and should improve the defense of this young squad.  That probably doesn’t mean much for fantasy, considering Skiles’ track record of being a poor offensive coach, but it could lead to more rotational stability if the team finds itself in the playoff picture as a result.

Here are the breakout, bust, and deep league sleeper candidates for the Orlando Magic:

Breakout Candidate To Watch: Aaron Gordon

Looking for a true breakout player in 2015-16? Look no further than the Orlando Magic’s first-round pick in 2014.

After playing in only 47 games his rookie season, Aaron Gordon tore up summer league to the tune of nearly 22 points and 12 boards per game. And — the most important development by far — he started to look comfortable knocking down jump shots.

This is where I am required to place a disclaimer stating “it was just summer league”, but if Gordon is able to consistently stick jumpers, his fantasy value is going to skyrocket.

Last year, Gordon shot 20 percent on mid-range shots, and 27.1-percent on three-pointers. What’s even worse is that he rarely attempted anything outside of the paint, limiting his real-life and fantasy value as a combo-forward.

In summer league, Gordon shot 50-percent from three-point range while knocking in two three-pointers per game. If he can increase his playing time through his broadened offensive skill set, he could be a boon for fantasy owners that take a flier on him in fantasy drafts.

In addition to his rebounding ability, Gordon offers the potential for nice steals and blocks totals, assuming he can get adequate minutes. If he has any scoring upside at all, along with the occasional three-pointer, he could turn into a fantasy commodity. He is on the short list of the top players to track as training camp and preseason begin.

Bust Candidate: Mario Hezonja

Before I begin this section, I want to make one thing clear: I love Mario Hezonja, and you should too.

This guy is going to be really fun. Maybe even as soon as this year. And, if he were able to nab a full-time role, he would be a fantastic scoring option for your fantasy team.

But, for me, he is ranked too high — 96th-overall in ESPN’s latest rankings — to justify taking what amounts to a flier in standard leagues.

Hezonja has gobs of potential to offer, but he’s currently ranked around players that look like they are going to have a better shot at fantasy success. Jordan Clarkson (99th) and Alec Burks (101st) are two players that I would target over Hezonja in the area he was ranked by ESPN, and that doesn’t even include the handful of tested veterans that might be worth a look also.

My main issue with Hezonja is that it’s unclear exactly what kind of workload we can expect early on from him. He is a shooting guard/small forward combo, and the Orlando Magic are pretty well stocked at both positions. Victor Oladipo should play all the minutes that he can handle, and Tobias Harris was just brought back on a deal worth $64 million. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon will factor into the wing rotation as well.

The potential workload issues are compounded by Hezonja’s lack of multi-category production out of the gate. His international numbers, per RealGM, point to a guy who will contribute scoring, three-pointers, and steals in limited minutes. Heading into his first season in the NBA, it’s a bit unrealistic to expect Hezonja to step into a solid scoring role without missing a beat, especially if he’s not high on the offensive hierarchy.

Of course, a defined role that points to a strong workload would drastically change his value, but is unlikely until the season is well underway, if at all this year.

The scoring upside is clear with Hezonja, but all signs point to that upside being capped unless some moves are made. In early drafts, I will be passing for more established players or those with clear opportunity, given how high it looks like Hezonja will be looked at.

Deep League Sleeper: C.J. Watson

The Orlando Magic are a team loaded with young talent. Their deep league sleeper candidate, however, is a 31-year-old veteran.

C.J. Watson isn’t a flashy player. He isn’t going to drop massive scoring numbers, and he doesn’t dish out an overwhelming amount of assists. He is a role player in every way imaginable. Thankfully, there is an opening for a nice role in Orlando.

The Magic want to make the playoffs. They hired Scott Skiles, and the have collected enough young talent to see how it will all come together. A big part of the playoff equation is going to be their bench, and that’s why they brought in C.J. Watson on a three-year-deal worth $15-million.

Elfrid Payton is the unquestioned starter, and he has shown the ability to set up his teammates nicely. However, he simply cannot shoot at this point of his career. Watson, a 38.3-percent three-point shooter (40-percent last season), can help the Magic by supplying a consistent shot from the outside. He should be able to play alongside Payton as well, giving him a few extra minutes in addition to his backup minutes at the point guard slot.

In deep leagues, Watson could be drafted as a guy who has three-point-specialist potential, but he does have the potential for a bit more. In about 25 minutes per game for Indiana last season, Watson averaged 10 points, 3.6 assists, 2.9 rebounds, one steal, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. That is probably his ceiling for this year, aside from an increase in threes, but deeper rosters could benefit if they are seeking part-time contributors.

Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams

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