Fantasy Basketball 2015-16: Washington Wizards
After a mundane regular season, the Washington Wizards sparked to life in the postseason. Bradley Beal flashed the breakout fantasy potential owners were expecting from him in the regular season, Paul Pierce became a show-stopper as a small-ball stretch-four, and John Wall never faltered as an elite dime-dropper, despite missing three playoff games due to injury.
Still, a series loss to the Atlanta Hawks sent the Wizards home in the conference semifinals for the second consecutive season, and the winds of change began to pick up.
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Paul Pierce fled to the Los Angeles Clippers, marking a notable loss for Washington. However, Pierce’s departure is more detrimental in real life than it is in the fantasy basketball realm, and could open the door for a host of new contributors.
Jared Dudley is the chief candidate to provide the stretch-4 flexibility that Pierce gave Washington last year. Dudley was acquired from Milwaukee for a second-round pick in July. Other additions for the Wizards include Gary Neal, Alan Anderson, and Kelly Oubre Jr., but none of those guys should be on your fantasy radar in standard leagues at the moment.
Randy Wittman returns to lead the Wizards for yet another season, but you can make the case that there is a bit more upside in this offense after seeing how Wittman ran the team in the playoffs. It remains to be seen whether more speed-based lineups can become a season-long trend for Washington, but they certainly have the pieces for an exciting fantasy offense.
Here are the Breakout, Bust, and Deep Sleeper candidates for the Washington Wizards:
Breakout Candidate To Watch: Otto Porter
After being selected with the third-overall pick of the 2013 NBA Draft, it was presumed that Otto Porter would develop into an all-around contributor on the wing for the Washington Wizards. That hasn’t happened yet, but the 2015-16 season could prove to be Porter’s best chance to breakout.
With Paul Pierce now soaking up the rays in Los Angeles, Porter becomes the starting small forward for the Wizards. As a starter last season, Porter posted averages of 10 points, 4.3 rebounds, a little more than one block and about one three-pointer per game. Those are useful numbers in deeper leagues, but a little disappointing for those in standard leagues.
There is hope for an uptick in Porter’s statistical production, though. Even though he started games, he still didn’t get the minutes starters typically do; he averaged only 26.4 minutes per game when labeled as a starter last season.
If the swingman can achieve a role that gives him 30-plus minutes per game, he should be a solid upside pick later in drafts. He has shown the ability to be a solid rebounder at his position, add in the occasional three-pointer, and has the potential to contribute a steal and a block per game a la Danny Green last season.
Playing with creators like John Wall and Bradley Beal should help him have adequate scoring potential, but his upside is as an all-around contributor that can be had in the late rounds.
Bust Candidate: Nene
It’s very difficult to call a late-round pick a bust, but in this case the title fits. Nene carried an ADP of 119 according to FantasyPros.
He was drafted ahead of Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Julius Randle, Alec Burks, and a host of others with exponentially more upside than the Wizards forward. In 10-team leagues, Nene was a 12th-round pick, with absolutely no upside whatsoever, and taking him at that juncture is a disservice to your team.
When Nene is healthy, he’s serviceable for fantasy; that’s really the best thing you can say about the guy at this point in his career. He averaged 11 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and one steal for fantasy owners last season. He shot 51.1 percent from the field, and an absolutely brutal 60.4 percent from the free-throw line.
Aside from the terrible free-throw percentage, the numbers are fine — and that is Nene’s ceiling for fantasy at this point: “fine.” His floor is that of a part-time bench guy or buyout-candidate-turned-free-agent.
The production concerns don’t even take into account the injury issues — Nene has not played 82 games since 2009-10 — that will curb his numbers even further.
Do yourself a favor and invest in a different forward or center late in your fantasy draft. Upside is king in the late rounds, and even if you feel the need to grab a “steady contributor”-type, just know that Nene is no longer one of those.
Deep League Sleeper: Jared Dudley
The Washington Wizards hierarchy of offensive touches is pretty much set with John Wall and Bradley Beal leading the way. The only Wizard that looks to be able to take a quantum leap in fantasy is the aforementioned Otto Porter, but his backup should be on the deep league fantasy radar.
Washington saw success last season by experimenting with Paul Pierce as a stretch-4, and Jared Dudley looks like he could be in line to replace some of that production.
Dudley is one of the best three-point shooters on Washington’s roster as shown by his excellent 39.6 field goal percentage from deep throughout his career. As a member of the resurgent Milwaukee Bucks last season, Dudley made about one three-pointer per game in bench minutes (about 24 minutes per contest).
He could get an uptick in outside shot opportunities playing next to John Wall and Bradley Beal, who offensively should be upgrades from the cast he played with on the Bucks. If Dudley secures a role as a three-point specialist or designated stretch-four, he could be a cheap option for three-pointers in deeper leagues next season.
Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams
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