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Minnesota Timberwolves: Has Ricky Rubio Reached His Ceiling?

By Michael Dunlap

Mar 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio (9) takes a shot over the hand of Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) during the first quarter of the Timberwolves 105-100 loss at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio (9) takes a shot over the hand of Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) during the first quarter of the Timberwolves 105-100 loss at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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We’re reaching a critical point in Ricky Rubio‘s career where we have to ask the question nobody wants to think about — is he going to get any better? First we held out hope because he was young, then we held out hope because of poor teammates, then we held out hope because of injuries. At some point, that hope will be unfounded. Let’s dig in to see if we’ve reached that point.

Sure, the Minnesota Timberwolves point guard will be just 25 years old when the 2015-16 season tips off, but he’s largely disappointed in his four years in the league, despite the hype and fanfare that preceded him. He’s been good, but we thought he’d be great.

Does Ricky possess elite court vision? Sure. Can he get into the passing lanes and disrupt an offense as well as any point guard in the league? Sure. But, the problem still remains — the dude can’t throw it in the ocean and despite his best efforts, he’s just not showing enough improvement.

THE UGLY (BAD WON’T CUT IT)

Back in 2013, I wrote about Rubio’s shooting woes and how his first two years in the league fared favorably to both Jason Kidd and John Wall. Here’s a line that was pretty harsh in retrospect:

"“The fact that Rubio’s shot looks like he’d be better suited to play Disc Golf, Jai-Alai or Cornhole is something else altogether.”"

Ouch. Unfortunately, I’m not wrong. Rubio’s shot has been so flat that he’s gone to some extreme measures to attempt to rectify the situation. Take a look at part of his pregame routine from this past season:

Rubio had posted modest overall shooting gains through his first four seasons in the league, going from 35.7 percent as a rookie to 36 and then 38.1 percent in 2013-14. He had a regression in his injury-filled 2014-15, dropping down to a career-worst 35.6 percent.

One major issue is something most know — Rubio’s jumper just isn’t very good. Another major issue is something that’s been ignored for quite some time — the fact that he’s not a very good finisher, either. Rubio was never solid at the rim — just 46.7 percent for his career inside three feet, but he plummeted to 33.3 percent in 2014-15. That’s so bad it’s almost impossible.

According to NBA.com/stats, Rubio was the worst shooter in the league inside five feet of anyone who took over 1.8 shots there per game. When we remove all filters entirely, Rubio places 465th out of 492 players that appeared in games in 2014-15.

THE GOOD

Feb 28, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio (9) passes the ball around Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) in the third quarter at Target Center. The Grizzlies won 101-97. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 28, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio (9) passes the ball around Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) in the third quarter at Target Center. The Grizzlies won 101-97. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports /

For all the poor shooting, there’s still a lot to like here. Rubio has been terrific at getting into passing lanes and has actually finished second in steals per game twice (2012-13, 2.4/2013-14, 2.3) and led the league in overall steals in 2013-14, with 191. He’s also been top-three in steal percentage three times, including two No. 1 finishes, in 2012-13 and 2013-14.

On the perimeter, he did a fantastic job harassing his man in 2014-15, holding opponents to just 32.8 percent from outside 15 feet (five percent worse than their season average). While it’s troubling that he allows opponents to shoot 8.2 percent better than their average from inside 10 feet, we can’t expect the world from a guy that’s 6-foot-4, 192 pounds soaking wet.

In terms of passing the ball, Ricky has finished in the top-10 in assists per game and assist percentage three times and was second overall in total assists in 2013-14.

Take a look at this triple-double he put up in March (against one of the best PG’s in the league in Chris Paul):

It’s no coincidence that the Timberwolves were 12.6 points better per 100 possessions with Ricky on the court in 2013-14 and 10.9 points better in 2014-15. He’s got a significant impact in that he makes those around him better while not making his own stats look very good.

Ricky has developed a solid chemistry with Andrew Wiggins in the short time they’ve played together and it shows in Wiggins’ shooting stats. With Ricky on the floor, Wiggins shot 47.1 percent from the field. Without Ricky, that number drops to 42.8 percent. The fact is, Rubio gets players open shots and gets them timely passes where they’re most comfortable. You can’t put a number on that.

BUT CAN HE GET BETTER?

This is the million dollar question. It goes without saying that the overall numbers from the 2014-15 season weren’t a good example of what Rubio can do. He played just four full games before getting hurt in the fifth game of the season and it’s not surprising to know he averaged 10.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 11.0 assists and 1.5 steals in those four games (Wolves went 2-2). As has been the case, just when Ricky has gotten going, something has gotten in the way.

After missing the better part of three months, Rubio eased back into the lineup before putting together a nine-game stretch that saw him average 11.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 10.8 assists and 2.2 steals. For the record — only three players have averaged 11/6/10/2 for a season (Magic Johnson twice, Jason Kidd twice, Micheal Ray Richardson).

That’s the Ricky that had everyone salivating when the Timberwolves drafted him No. 5 in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Can he do that for an entire season or have we seen the best Ricky can offer? I think with the right spread of shooters around him to keep defenses honest (Kevin Martin, free agent pickup), combined with a go-to slasher/scorer who can get tough buckets (Andrew Wiggins, hopefully) and a veteran leader on the court (Kevin Garnett), we’re in store for a treat in 2015-16.

Next: The 30 Best Point Guards of All-Time

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