Los Angeles Lakers: What To Do With Jordan Hill

Jordan Hill has become the subject of the most interesting storyline for the Los Angeles Lakers, as far as their in-house free agents are concerned.

Hill has an option on his contract that would pay him $9 million in 2015-16. If the Lakers decline — which they must do before July’s free agency period begins — he will become an unrestricted free agent.

In his exit interview, Hill confessed that head coach Byron Scott was “disappointed” in his 2014-15 campaign due to his lack of energy.

It’s easy to pin the fatigue on Jordan Hill’s career-high 26.8 minutes per game last season — six more minutes per game than his previous career-high set in 2013-14 — but it’s more than slightly concerning that he wasn’t prepared for a big workload given his payday over the summer.

More from Los Angeles Lakers

• NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers
• A surprise LeBron ranking should raise alarm bells for the Lakers
• Surprising Austin Reaves contract detail confirms Lakers got him for a steal
• Instant Grades for the Lakers’ unprecedented Anthony Davis extension
• Report: Lakers have big plans for recent top-10 pick amid roster shakeup

The early indication from the coach was that he was the favorite to open the season as the starter at center, making it even more puzzling why Hill didn’t plan for extended time on the court.

Despite his apparent unpreparedness for the job, Jordan Hill emerged as the Lakers leading scorer by averaging 12 points per game; a career-high. He also set career-highs in rebounds per game (7.9) and assists per game (1.5).

So why, after coming off his best statistical season, did Hill’s 2014-15 become labeled as a disappointment, rather than a success? And should the Lakers pick up his big-money option?

Jordan Hill Did Not Get Paid To Be A Stretch Big, But He Played Like (A Mediocre) One

In 2013-14, Hill made his impact as a ferocious offensive rebounder (sixth in the NBA in offensive rebound rate among those who played at least 40 games). He played to his strengths, and limited the inefficient shots he took on the court.

But then his approach to the game changed, which eliminated a lot of what made him a valuable asset.

It’s fair to attribute some of the change in his offensive approach to Byron Scott’s mid-range-heavy attack, but for Jordan Hill to shoot 36.8 percent of his two-point field goal attempts from 16-plus feet is an outrageous mismatch for his skill set.

In 2004-05 Dirk Nowitzki took 38.6 percent of his two-point shots from 16-plus feet — a career-high — and he’s arguably the greatest stretch-anything to ever play basketball. In fact, Nowitzki is a career 47.7 percent shooter on two-pointers 16-plus feet from the basket.

Related: Jordan Hill is not Dirk Nowitzki. There’s no reason for him — and his career 38.2 percent two-point shooting from 16-plus feet — to be hoisting more than a third of his field goal attempts from that distance.

Hill’s infatuation with the long-distance two-pointer is a primary reason he set a career-low in field goal percentage at 45.9 percent. But, this also had an effect on his once-elite offensive rebounding rate, which took nearly a 4 percent dip as he converted into a stretch-big.

Jordan Hill registered 20 fewer offensive rebounds in 2014-15 than the year before, even though he played 374 more minutes.

Coincidentally, it’s more difficult to grab offensive rebounds if you don’t play around the rim. Who knew?

Whether the Lakers should have ever given Jordan Hill $9 million per year is debatable. But, he didn’t get that money because they thought he was a lights-out shooter. He cashed in because he was an energy guy that could snag offensive boards — the same reason a player like Tristan Thompson (14.4 percent offensive rebound rate in 2014-15) is going to get paid this summer.

Jordan Hill’s abandonment of his one elite NBA skill is a big reason why his 2014-15 season is viewed as a disappointment.

Hill is not worth $9 million to the Lakers if his role is jump shooting, and there’s a case to be made that he’s not worth that money to the Lakers next season at all.

The Lakers Could Replace Jordan Hill This Summer — And Save Money Doing It

If this is the new Jordan Hill — meaning he won’t regain his 2013-14 form — it doesn’t make sense for the Lakers to allocate $9 million to him next season.

The Lakers have quite a few different options in terms of replacing him if they choose to let him go.

The obvious in-house option is Julius Randle. He’s a prospect the team is excited about, and should provide ample scoring and rebounding at the power forward position. The only real downside is that, at 6’9”, Randle probably can’t play the center position like Jordan Hill can. However, he will only cost the Lakers $3,132,240 next season.

The cheapest option that could potentially replicate what the Lakers liked in Jordan Hill in 2013-14 is Tarik Black. He had an offensive rebound rate of 12.8 percent in his rookie season with both the Rockets and the Lakers, but has an offensive repertoire that is limited to shots near the basket. He can play both center and power forward, and his price tag is a meager $845,059.

Ed Davis is another candidate — though he’s going to be a free agent and could cost the Lakers significantly more than either of the players mentioned before him. He is another player that has a limited (but efficient) offensive game, can play both the 4 and the 5, and had an excellent offensive rebound rate (13.3 percent) in his only season with the Lakers.

The free agent market is going to be loaded with big men. Kosta Koufos (Memphis), Kevin Seraphin (Washington) and Brandan Wright (Phoenix) are all bigs that made at least $4 million less than Jordan Hill last season, and could potentially be had for less than Hill’s hefty option.

And, of course, there’s the No. 2 overall selection in the NBA Draft. The Lakers could simply select Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor — whoever the Minnesota Timberwolves don’t take — which would make Jordan Hill expendable. The first-year salary for the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft is expected to be around $4,252,600, per RealGM.

Given Jordan Hill’s strange transformation into a jump shooting big, his large salary in 2015-16, and the bevy of cheaper options to replace him, it seems like a no-brainer that the Lakers will decline the option on his contract.

Statistical support provided by: NBA.com/Stats & Basketball Reference.
Contract numbers provided by: Spotrac

Next: Our Latest NBA Mock Draft

More from Hoops Habit

• The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout