San Antonio Spurs: Game 7 Is Everything, For Everyone

It’s more exciting than any single game of a college bracket. It’s more stressful, intensified, and more of a showdown. It’s also the two greatest words in sports, if you’ve ever kept up with professional leagues.

Game 7.

Everything is on the line this Saturday, before the historic square-off between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. While more financial benefits and story background is coming from the Las Vegas fight, more excitement is probably attributed to this heavyweight battle in Los Angeles.

The concept of Game 7 isn’t new to the San Antonio Spurs. Since Tim Duncan‘s era of eminence has featured a few Game 7’s, too. Playing in five total Game 7’s throughout the franchise’s history with Duncan, San Antonio’s winning percentage is .600 (3-2). Only two have those have been on the road, however.

Their only road win in a Game 7 was a nine-point victory over the New Orleans Hornets in 2008. You can guarantee that memory is still fresh in the mind of Chris Paul, who did everything he could to keep the Hornets competitive.

Paul has lost to Duncan before in a Game 7, even while hosting it. Duncan was only 32 years old then — not a old man who just runs up San Antonio’s average roster age now at 39. Paul was only 23, still learning the nuances of the NBA and trying to learn from legendary stars in 2008 (Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson).

Seven years later, this Game 7 is held to a larger magnitude. It’s only in the first round, but it’s almost equivalent to an earthquake registering a 7.0 on the Richter scale. We aren’t at the level of complete eradication, but it’s definitely past the “moderate” stage of what this means to a couple careers. Just as LeBron James flourished in the most important game of his life in TD Garden on June 8th, 2012, Paul is up against the same pressure and affliction on Saturday.

San Antonio’s outlook

Two massive warning signs are in front of the Spurs’ chances on Saturday.

There have been countless times where Gregg Popovich has guided this team to a 3-2 series lead. Only one of those moments is remembered to a large degree, though, as it was the most devastating meltdown in his coaching career.

Up 3-2 on Miami in the 2013 NBA Finals, the Spurs had every intention of closing out the series in Game 6. With the Finals format still 2-3-2 in homecourt advantage, the last two games for Pop were to be played on the road.

We know the story. We know how brutally it ended for San Antonio, losing on the luckiest final possession in Finals history. Missed free throws and blown defensive assignments caused the Spurs to blow it.  They blew their best chance at finishing off a resilient Miami bunch — led by a Big 3 that was 14 total years younger than the Spurs’ Big 3 — and were forced to recover mentally and physically in a short two-day turnaround.

It didn’t happen, and Miami stole Tim Duncan’s fifth championship. They blemished Duncan’s finals record to 4-1, after it appeared certain that he would be the Michael Jordan or Floyd Mayweather of our generation — winning gobs of titles without dropping one fight on the big stage.

On Thursday, in the first round (!!!), the Spurs may have blown their chance in the same way.

Up 3-2 heading into Game 6 vs. the Clippers, Popovich knew his team didn’t perform the way it was supposed to. The words “embarrassing” and “soft” were used in his postgame diagnosis of what happened on Thursday, which surely made his guys realize what they blew.

This series has lived up to everything we claimed it would, but it’s taken a much different twist than we expected. Home teams are just 2-4 in this series, with the only two wins coming in convincing blowouts by both squads (Clippers in Game 1, Spurs in Game 3). The total margin of victory in those two games was 42 points, while the total margin for the other four games equaled 23 (average of 5.7 points).

The end result is the same, since Game 7 was on nearly everyone’s radar. The path of getting there has just been irregular.

Game 6 was supposed to be the death of Los Angeles during their first year with Steve Balmer as the unofficial mascot. Out of the gate, San Antonio experienced the best of both worlds. Shutting down Chris Paul for the entire first half was enough to give the Spurs hope. On the contrary, it was inexcusable for a title-defending team to turn the ball over eight times in the first 12 minutes. Had they not wasted so many early possessions, Popovich would’ve had a greater lead after the first and second quarters. Instead, it was a deadlock.

Blake Griffin going 8-of-13 in the second half for 18 points, seven rebounds, and zero turnovers was too much for the Spurs to handle, especially on a night where nobody was hitting their free throws. San Antonio shot just 57 percent from the foul line, compared to the Clippers’ 71 percent. With Popovich’s infamous fouling strategy, it’s logical that his team would shoot better from the line than his opposition. Not taking advantage of DeAndre Jordan’s misses is exactly what frustrates a coach.

Late in the fourth quarter, Doc Rivers found an easier way to get Chris Paul a little rest while keeping him in the game. He allowed Jamal Crawford to initiate action at the top of the key, running smooth pick-and-rolls with Griffin. This allowed Paul to play off the ball for a few possessions, while still being the most dangerous on the court:

Above, you see the perfect movement by Griffin and Crawford. Griffin doesn’t even need to fully set the screen, but Tiago Splitter hedges hard on Crawford anyway — which makes sense because Crawford has made a living off hitting clutch shots and the 60% healthy Parker would probably get shook by Crawford if he had to defend him one-on-one.

When Griffin slips the screen and fades to the middle of the court, it’s a crime that he’s left with 10 feet of room at any direction. He was fresh off his most impressive quarter of the series, and you can’t give him that much to work with:

This lineup of Paul, Redick, Crawford, Barnes, and Griffin played less than 20 minutes together for the entire regular season. In the playoffs, they’ve only played eight minutes together, and it resulted in a huge fourth quarter triple in Game 6.

Once Griffin catches the ball, Kawhi Leonard is already a couple feet in front of him on the rotation. As much as Griffin was scorching the building earlier in the game, it was his decision making that won Los Angeles a chance at Game 7. He could’ve easily felt confident enough to pull up and knock down the short jumper. But, Griffin has transformed into another wicked passer for this team, and that’s why everyone loves him outside of the marquee dunks.

Griffin flung the pass to Paul, resting in the corner while Leonard had to attend to the roll-man. While it seems simple, there’s an underrated aspect of delivering this pass to Paul’s triple. It would’ve been easy for Griffin to hit Redick on the wing, forcing the attention to a possible Redick 3-pointer. However, that would’ve given Leonard and the Spurs too much time to recover back onto Paul.

Normally, you would want you offense to swing the ball around the perimeter and never stop the ball movement (Spurs-like), but this was an exception. It was smarter for Griffin to do what he did, and get his point guard as much time as possible on the open attempt. Leonard was left in the paint, which mandated that Danny Green scrambled out to contest Paul’s open look.

It was surgical, since Paul either had his guaranteed three points, or Redick with the cleanest look you’ll ever get on the wing:

This play gave the Clippers a seven-point lead, which forced Popovich to call a quick timeout. You could even tell there was a slight smirk on Popovich’s face, realizing he just got burned on the type of beautiful play he’s known for.

With a more traditional lineup in the game for Los Angeles, the Clippers were still able to exploit the versatility of Griffin. This instance was with Chris Paul working the screen-roll at the top instead of Crawford:

When DeAndre Jordan floats up to set the screen on Leonard, it’s Duncan that slides back into the paint to patrol CP3. He doesn’t have to be concerned about Jordan’s abilities from 15-feet extended, so he can sag off and wait for Paul to enter the middle.

When Paul does, though, Boris Diaw (guarding Griffin on the baseline) has to slide over next to Duncan. He does this so Paul can’t use his superior foot-speed and nine years of age difference to get easily around Duncan. Diaw cuts off the left drive to the rim, but he leaves Griffin alone from long-range:

It was a long two for Griffin, which is never praised. But, he was a maniac in the second half and you never tell your superstars to back off the intensity. Griffin knocked it down, and the lead extended to seven yet again.

These were the main plays that ruined the Spurs’ chances at getting the deficit back to a one-possession game in the fourth quarter. When they made their run and cut it to two or three, the Clippers still had momentum because of their hot burst and open shots.

Even more defensive pressure has to be given by the Spurs in Game 7, or Griffin may end up wrapping this series with a bow.

What Game 7 means for Chris Paul

If you listen to Paul speak before any playoff run, or throughout the course of any regular season, you’ll notice one thing.  He’s always adamant about his “legacy” not meaning too much to him right now.  At this stage of his career — 10 years in — he’s only worried about playing each game, and being there for his team.

Paul has aged perfectly as a point guard despite only being 30 years old. He’s went from absolutely annihilating opponents with his slashes to the rim, to the most lethal mid-range shooter in the sport. Although many explosive, scoring point guards are on the rise (Lillard, Curry, Westbrook), there’s still nobody that matches the overall package Paul provides as a 6’1″ leader.

Saturday’s Game 7 will mean everything for his legacy, though, whether he wants to argue it or not.  The internet and any medium for spreading hot takes/open opinions about superstars is a scary thing. Fail at something, and you’ll be trending for about two long days.

If it were up to me (or most of us), Paul’s position in terms of the all-time great players this league has seen would not be affected by Game 7’s outcome.  But, the world isn’t going to allow for logical understanding anymore, it seems.  There will be way too much blasting about Paul’s playoff narrative if the Clippers fall on Saturday that we won’t be able to take it.

In no way, shape or form should he get the bulk of the criticism, though. Truthfully, he shouldn’t get any.

For the simple fact that Los Angeles just won the game in which Paul started 0-of-9 from the field, that moment shouldn’t be held against him. Yes, he did come up short in Game 6’s first half, but you could only point to his rough start if the Clippers indeed lost the game. They didn’t. Mostly because it was Paul who came through down the stretch, tag-teaming with Griffin.

In this series, Paul is coming off two straight games of recording a points + assists double-double. In addition, he’s only had one game in this six-game series that resulted in over three turnovers.

For the totality of the series, Paul’s assist-to-turnover ratio is a ridiculous 3.1, after dishing 49 assists to just 15 giveaways. He’s shooting nearly 50 percent from the field, while taking almost 17 shots per night.

For as great of a shooter we praise Stephen Curry to be, Paul is also performing at the highest standard. In true shooting percentage, Paul is only 1.9 percent lower than Curry during the playoffs. His “value added” estimate of 44.9 is even higher than Curry’s 41.2 through the first round. Blaming another disappointing Clippers’ playoff run on Paul would be a mistake, but some people are still going to be simple-minded.

If Paul does break through the barrier and Los Angeles takes Game 7, it’s some monumental weight lifted off his shoulders. He could then say … regardless of the outcome vs. Houston (a series that’s beginning on Monday), he was the only one out West that could knock off San Antonio in the last three years.

It’s all or nothing for Paul in regards to his public perception as a player — and a winner — so he better make the most of his 42+ minutes on Saturday. There’s no way Rivers can keep him on the bench for more than a couple minutes when the season is on the line. Not with this second unit.

The Spurs’ gloomy chances

It does seem a bit odd that San Antonio wouldn’t be favored in this Game 7. After all, they are the defending champions that haven’t been knocked off in the West since 2012 (by the Thunder). Additionally, they’ve already taken two games in Hollywood throughout this bloody series.

Nevertheless, I’m not sure there’s an instance where a six seed has ever won three road games against a three-seed. San Antonio was lucky enough to have DeAndre Jordan whistled for offensive interference in Game 5, and lucky enough for Griffin to rack up multiple turnovers in the closing minutes of Game 2. Otherwise, this series wouldn’t even be heading back to Staples Center.

The chances don’t appear to be too positive for the Spurs.  This feels identical to Game 7 in Miami for the 2013 title, where the Spurs had to recuperate and focus on winning one more road game. If anyone has it in their soul to defy the odds and win three straight on the road, it’s this team. I wouldn’t give any other team in NBA history a shot at doing so.

Historically, this spells bad news for Popovich, trying to inch closer to his sixth title in June.  Of all the Game 7’s throughout NBA history, the road team has only won 20.2% of them.

The Spurs have three components on their side:

1. They aren’t strangers to this situation, so it’s doubtful that nerves even play a role when the ball is tipped on Saturday.
2. Glen Davis probably won’t even be in uniform for Game 7, since he suffered a “sprained ankle” towards the end of Game 6. It looked more like a painful Achilles injury, since he literally couldn’t walk to the locker room. It ruins the Clippers’ abysmal bench even further.
3. Los Angeles is just 5-of-32 from beyond the arc in the last two games combined. Shooting 15.6% from long-range (a potent weapon for the Clippers in the regular season) will only keep San Antonio in the game. To completely kill the Spurs’ dynasty on Saturday, it can’t be a close game heading into the fourth. Those shots need to fall.

Legacies, careers, and a championship are all on the line tomorrow.

While this is just the first round and no Larry O’Brien trophy is being presented, it’s clear that both of these teams have strong enough rosters to be in The Finals. Having one sent home early is just a sin. It goes against everything that’s morally right.

For Chris Paul, a loss would spark the most absurd claims about his success.

For Tim Duncan, a loss could be the ending moment of the most respected professional athlete since 1997.

Spurs in 7 was the initial pick, and I’m certainly not budging now.