2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Western Conference Matchups
By Shane Young
(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans
The era of Anthony Davis’ destruction may have started during Team USA’s run in the summer, but let’s get one thing straight: The extermination doesn’t officially begin until you reach the playoffs, regardless of the strength or weakness of your conference.
Mission accomplished for The Brow.
Absolutely needing a win to secure the city’s first playoff appearance since Chris Paul departed, Davis snapped the Spurs’ 11-game winning streak with a 31-point night. It doesn’t get any better than the finish New Orleans gave their home crowd on Wednesday.
Unfortunately for Monty Williams, who probably secured his job for next season by collecting 45 wins, the outcomes aren’t getting prettier. Coming down off their emotional honeymoon, the Pelicans are up against the stoutest regular season team since Michael Jordan‘s 1996 Bulls. Finishing with 67 wins, Golden State marched through the year without looking back, with the highest point-differential (+10.1) since Boston’s 2008 run.
The crazy part is, these Warriors are even better than those 66-16 Celtics that wrecked everyone by an average of 10.3 points per game. In addition, Stephen Curry has managed to lead this charge through the West — the inferno that causes so much pain because it’s deeper than ever. It makes their season unprecedented, because no other team in history has won this many games while facing these current West units three or four times in a single schedule.
Golden State and New Orleans met four times during the season grind, with the Warriors taking three of the meetings by an average margin of 16.3 points. The one matchup Monty Williams was able to pull out (just two weeks ago on April 7) was just a three-point victory for New Orleans at home. Davis and company were in a must-win stretch, and got the benefit of tripling Golden State in free throw attempts. Getting 22 points from the line to the Warriors’ meager 7, but only pulling out a one-possession win doesn’t signify too much confidence for the Pelicans.
What makes this matchup unworkable for Davis is the Warriors’ full-fledged control at home. 13 of their 15 losses have been on the road, giving Steve Kerr a home record of 39-2. One of the losses came in a decisive 13-point defeat to the Spurs, while the other was in an overtime battle with a re-surged Derrick Rose. Both of those are top three squads in their respective conferences, not a fringe playoff team with a losing road record.
The Pelicans, nevertheless, are just 17-24 on the road this year, which isn’t respectable enough to warrant any type of danger. Having to play two games in the league’s most spirited and lively arena will devastate the Pelicans right off the bat. At home, Golden State has swelled their net rating to +16.2, holding offenses to just 97 points per 100 possessions. No other team comes close to challenging Golden State in those areas, since their attack has equaled the best balance you could ask for. Everything gets a few notches better, too, when they string together a few head-shaking plays that get the crowd wanting to rush the floor.
Essentially, New Orleans is going toe-to-toe with the toughest home team we’ve seen in the last decade, while they virtually have no reputation of winning on the road. The Pelicans own a -3.3 net rating while visiting opponents, with the third-slowest pace on the road. Williams doesn’t like his offense to push the tempo, especially in hostile environments. Ranking 28th overall in possessions per 48 minutes while on the road, New Orleans is going to experience the biggest game-breaker when they’re trying to stop Golden State’s 1st overall tempo at Oracle Arena (the only team to average over 100 possessions in a game).
The last time these two squared off, Andrew Bogut laid his defensive mark all over the court. Being one of the top two rim-protectors for the last three years has made Bogut one of the more valuable players when it comes to the playoffs. If he’s available and not hurt, the Warriors’ chances of heading to the conference finals jumps from “moderate” to “extremely high.” He brings the one final element they need to succeed, which is bailing out any defensive lapses Curry or some of his younger teammates allow (crazy enough, those lapses aren’t that common anymore, compared to last year).
When Curry gets caught up in pick-and-roll action and can’t recover, Bogut doesn’t get beat off the dribble or let guards finish around him. His mobility from the free throw line to the rim has taken a lot of pressure of their defense:
As this is Norris Cole using the Davis screen, he gets around the very weak hedge by Marreese Speights and has an open driving lane to work with. Cole is an attacker at heart, so he naturally tries to test Bogut at the rim — missing Davis on the roll near the foul line, since he only had a split second to drop it off to him. Bogut has to monitor the hungry Davis moving toward the rim, but also cut off Cole’s aggressive drive. With an excellent change of direction, he denies any hope for Cole’s life.
In fact, nine blocks came from Bogut in this showdown, although he was in foul trouble near the end. That’s the only concern, since we know New Orleans is going to do all they can to ambush Golden State in the middle. Defend at the rim, without having to sit with four or five fouls, and Davis’ job just becomes tougher.
Bogut can do so many things at once defensively, it makes New Orleans’ strategy difficult … especially when Omer Asik is asked to make plays around the restricted area:
As the play above unfolds, Draymond Green is fronting Davis on the left block. Bogut doesn’t know what Pondexter is going to do with the ball on the wing when he gets it, so he shows help on Davis. Just for a moment, it seems as if Asik will have enough room to make a play and either score or get to the line. When Bogut recovers, it’s all over — Asik utilizes little tactics against Golden State that helps him get to the line. No pump fakes to get Bogut in the air, no hesitation, nothing.
The road is traveling in the right direction for the Pelicans, but the chances of a bottom-10 defense knocking off a diversified offense like Golden State is slim to none. In their couple years of having the combination of Davis, Tyreke Evans, and Jrue Holiday to work around, they’ve figured it out offensively. They’ve increased by five ranks from their offensive rating in 2013-14, and by eight ranks since Davis’ rookie year.
It’s the team defense that should worry New Orleans, because Davis can’t be everywhere at once. If only we could just do the morally right thing here, and clone The Brow three times or ask Russell Westbrook to join the clan for one series, this may be different.
Unlike 2006-07, this No. 1 seed with 67 wins has all the flavors of a deep run. No upset will be hitting the record books.
Prediction: Warriors in 5