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Stats Suggest Kevin Durant Entering MVP Discussion?

By Mark Vandeusen

Feb 11, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) attempts a shot against Memphis Grizzlies forward Tony Allen (9) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 11, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) attempts a shot against Memphis Grizzlies forward Tony Allen (9) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Kevin Durant MVP bandwagon is about to start picking up steam.  This week Stat Central takes a look at the numbers behind Durant’s season so far.

At first glance it seems like a ridiculous notion that a player who’s taken the floor for less than half his team’s games could be part of the MVP conversation.  Durant has suited up for 26 of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 53 contests in 2014-15.  Even if he plays in all 29 games after the All-Star break, it’ll still be just 55 of 82 for the year (67 percent).

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Is two-thirds of a season enough to win an MVP?  Probably not, but if Durant keeps playing the way he has lately, he’ll have to at least be considered a serious candidate.

Let’s start with the basics: The Thunder are 17-9 (.654) with Durant this year and 11-16 (.407) without him.  Oklahoma City began the season 5-12 before Durant played for the first time (although Russell Westbrook missed 16 of those games as well), but the club now sits at 28-25, its high-water mark of 2014-15.

Durant is averaging 25.9 points per game, second only to James Harden‘s 27.7.  The Thunder forward is shooting 51.7 percent from the floor, despite the fact that more than half his attempts (227 of 453) are from at least 16 feet away from the basket.  

It’s also the third-highest field goal percentage in the league (after Anthony Davis and Nikola Vucevic) among players averaging 15 or more shots per game. From the three-point line Durant is connecting 40.5 percent of the time, the sixth-best in the NBA (and the highest for a forward) among players taking five or more threes per game.  

Putting together his pair of outstanding shooting numbers, Durant’s effective field goal percentage (which is weighted for three-pointers) of 58.5 is No. 1 in the league for players with at least nine attempts per night. Durant is also knocking down 85.2 percent of his foul shots, which ranks sixth in the league among players taking at least five free-throws per game.

Of course none of these stats are official because Durant has yet to play enough to qualify among the league leaders.  However, the reason he may soon become part of the MVP discussion is because of the direction his numbers are trending.

Over the last six weeks Durant is putting up an NBA-best 27.8 PPG.  That average ticks up slightly to 28.0 PPG in the past three weeks.  But, in the final three contests heading into All-Star Weekend Durant really began to catch fire.

Leading Oklahoma City to victories on each occasion, Durant went 10-for-15 from the field and 2-for-3 from downtown for 29 points against the Los Angeles Clippers, then 13-for-19 and 7-for-12 for 40 points vs. the Denver Nuggets, followed by 9-for-15 and 4-for-6 for 26 points against the Memphis Grizzlies.  His three-game totals are staggering:

Not to mention Durant’s incredibly efficiency:

That’s a point-per-shot average of 1.94.  By comparison the NBA leaders in that category are Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan (who may break field goal percentage records), both big men who shoot infrequently from close range and still average less than 1.8 points per attempt.

Obviously his recent performance is a very small sample size, but if Durant stays hot after the break and the Thunder keep winning, he’ll likely merit MVP consideration by the end of the year.

Next: NBA Stats That Matter And Stats That Don't

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