Kawhi Leonard: Spurs Need Their Star Back
Sappy Hallmark cards meant for college kids in long distance relationships often say, “absence makes the heart grow fonder.” While that’s mostly true, absence can also make you forget about things. Especially in the NBA.
Take Kevin Durant, for example. A New Year’s Eve meeting with the Phoenix Suns made me realize I had forgotten how exceptional he is at basketball. I found myself somehow surprised that he torched Phoenix for 44 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in a thrilling Oklahoma City Thunder win.
Is this also the case with Kawhi Leonard? Is it possible we have forgotten how much of an impact he has on the San Antonio Spurs?
The 6’7″ defensive stopper/Swiss Army knife has only played 22 games this season, due to several maladies, including a torn ligament in his hand and a bad case of pink eye. In those 22 games Leonard has averaged 15.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game on 45.4 percent shooting and 31.1 percent from three-point range.
Those are decent numbers, but they still are not up to his full capabilities. Last season, in fewer minutes and while averaging 2.5 less shots per game, Leonard shot 52.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from the behind the arc, which is the type of efficiency we would normally expect from him. But that’s still not Leonard at his best.
For peak Leonard, we need to look at his performance against the Miami Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals. If you did not know Kawhi Leonard’s name going into the Finals, you absolutely knew it afterwards.
After modest back-to-back nine-point efforts to start the series, he exploded for three straight 20-point games (all on over 50 percent shooting), including consecutive double-doubles in the final two games. His offensive outburst helped the Spurs dispatch the vaunted Miami Heat to win their fifth NBA title, and exorcise the demons of a devastating collapse in the 2013 NBA Finals.
He did all that while being asked to guard LeBron James every game. He may not have shut James down, but Leonard made him work for every point he scored.
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It was a coming out party for Leonard, and he was rewarded with the Finals MVP award for his efforts. We knew he was good, but did we know how good he could be?
Now, it may be unfair to expect that type of performance from him every night, but there’s no reason to think he cannot at least come close. He clearly has the talent. Pair that with his outstanding defensive ability, and you have yourself a superstar player.
Speaking of that defense, that’s where San Antonio misses him the most. A favorite statistic of mine, one that should still be taken with a grain of salt (as every stat should), is Defensive Real Plus/Minus. It attempts to quantify a player’s individual defensive impact.
Leonard’s DRPM was at 2.13 which ranked him as the sixth best defensive small forward last season. Leonard also led the Spurs in total win shares last season with 7.7, and was second to Tim Duncan in defensive win shares with 3.9.
Leonard’s great instincts and size make him a nightmare for opposing, small forwards. He does a great job of denying the ball, and keeping even the best penetrators in front of him. He has active hands without reaching or fouling. Before he went down with his latest injury he was averaging 2.0 steals per game, which would be a career high.
Watching him play or looking at the advanced statistics, make it abundantly clear how much Leonard helps this team on the defensive end. Duncan and Danny Green cannot do it alone. Below is a table showing how the San Antonio defense performs with and without Leonard on the court.
| Opponent | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | TOV% | ORtg |
| On Court | .460 | 19.7 | 76.6 | 47.5 | 59.2 | 14.4 | 97.5 |
| Off Court | .498 | 24.4 | 77.6 | 50.7 | 53.5 | 14.8 | 106.8 |
| On − Off | -.038 | -4.7 | -1.0 | -3.2 | +5.7 | -0.4 | -9.3 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/15/2015.
The difference is striking. Their opponent’s offensive rating increases by nearly 10, and the opponent’s effective field goal percentage rises from 46 percent to 49.8 percent. Those disparities are by far the largest on the team. It would appear that Leonard is the glue that holds this defense together.
The Spurs currently sport a 24-16 record, which gives them a 1.5 game cushion on the Phoenix Suns for the seventh seed in the Western Conference. An 8-10 December started the chatter that the Spurs’ era of dominance may finally be coming to an end.
A 4-2 start to January has calmed those fears for now, but it is obvious that San Antonio desperately needs Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, especially for the inevitable playoff matchup with Kevin Durant and the Thunder. Leonard is listed as probable for their Friday night meeting with the Portland Trail Blazers, so it looks like the wait is over.
The Spurs always come ready to compete in the playoffs, and as long as Leonard is healthy then they should still be considered one of the favorites to win it all. Is it June yet?