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NBA: 20 Predictions for the 2014-15 Season

By Shane Young

Apr 19, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives the lane past Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) and center Ryan Hollins (15) in the first half in game one during the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 19, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives the lane past Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) and center Ryan Hollins (15) in the first half in game one during the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 1, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) attempts a shot as Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert (55) defends in the second half of game six of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Indiana Pacers defeated the Atlanta Hawks 95-88. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /

19.  Roy Hibbert’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus will be even greater, and reach +4.0

Indiana was building up for an overflow of good feelings this offseason.  Seriously, everything was looking to go their way, and throw them back into contention for a top two seed in the East.  Paul George was working extensively on his post game, and claimed that he improved from last year.  Roy Hibbert contacted Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and dedicated his time to learning from the most profuse scorer ever.  They were overly-confident Lance Stephenson wouldn’t turn the other cheek.

To top it all off, LeBron James hit the road and left South Beach, breaking up the dynasty that knocked Indiana out of the playoffs for three straight years.  In 2012, it was the conference semifinals.  In 2013 and 2014, Miami ousted the Pacers in the East Finals.  If the brick wall that’s been pounding you breaks down, you’re expected to step through.  The Pacers were about to.

Instead, all tragedy broke loose.

Stephenson followed Michael Jordan to a revived franchise.  George snapped his leg in an unfortunate accident.  LeBron recruited Kevin Love and encouraged the trade with Minnesota.  Everything fell apart for the Pacers, in a matter of 30 days.

What people are falling victim to, however, is thinking that Indiana’s defense is going to completely head down the drain.  It’s not, because they still have the physical aggression, proper coaching on that end of the floor, and the best rim-protector in the league.

Even with David West‘s recent ankle injury, Hibbert is still in the middle for Frank Vogel.

Last season, Hibbert’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus finished at +3.22, which was seventh of all centers that played at least 29 minutes per game.  He was behind DeAndre Jordan (+3.37), Tyson Chandler (+3.75), Joakim Noah (+3.92), Marcin Gortat (+4.0), Dwight Howard (+4.91), and Marc Gasol (+5.23).  It seemed a bit low for Hibbert, especially when you threw in the people that were ready to vote him in as Defensive Player of the Year.

But, when you consider that Indiana took a bit of a step back on both sides of the court after February, his production didn’t stand out.  After February 1st, the Pacers recorded a negative team plus-minus of -0.2.  That ranked 19th in the league during the time frame, and there were only two playoff teams to have a negative plus-minus; Indiana and Atlanta.  Yes, their offense struggled to score, but their defense allowed more points than usual as well.

Hibbert claimed that Kareem didn’t just help him with the offensive end.  As a matter of fact, he expressed how much attention the legendary post talent helped him with the defensive end, going through certain drills and trying to fix his broken psyche.

Being a better individual defender is a hidden goal for Hibbert this year, since he wasn’t all about discussing his goals in sight.  Even as the league focuses heavily on the rule of verticality this season, he’ll make smaller guards scared to death to take it in the middle.  Just as he did in the second round of the playoffs, vs. Washington.