Portland Trail Blazers Over-Performed Last Year
Last year, the Portland Trail Blazers were a power in the Western Conference, winning 54 games and finishing fifth in the absolutely brutal Western Conference. Clearly the team was doing something right, as they seemed to be winning games nightly.
But what if the team was over-performing? What if the Trail Blazers can’t repeat the same level of success?
The Trail Blazers started the season off white-hot. They were so hot that after 40 games, the Blazers were an incredible 31-9. The team just kept on winning and kept on playing some great basketball, albeit without defense. But, to win those 31 games, the team had an incredible run of fortune.
For example, the Blazers enjoyed a streak of good health. The team had no starter miss any games, save for LaMarcus Aldridge, and that was for only 13 games. That’s 13 games out of 410 total between the starters. That’s 97 percent of possible games played from the starters. The Blazers managed to go 8-5 in that stretch.
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So the Trail Blazers, a team that lives by the 3 and plays no defense, somehow managed to start out at 31-9. They were one of the few teams that had a very clean slate of health among the starters. After their extremely hot start, they plummeted in the second half to the tune of a 23-19 record, which is fairly mediocre, especially in the West.
There is very little chance that the Trail Blazers repeat that really hot start. With the style that this team has, it’s unlikely they can continue to win games at that clip. That 31-9 stretch was a winning percentage of .775, which, over the course of a full NBA season comes out to 64 wins.
The Trail Blazers are not a team that is good enough to win 64 games. Eventually, the 3s stop falling and that’s a disaster for a team who doesn’t play a lot of defense.
Now, the second half of the year isn’t exactly what the Trail Blazers are either. That 23-19 stretch comes out to only a .547 winning percentage, which comes out to a lowly 44 wins–that would barely sniff the playoffs in the West and honestly, the Blazers are better than that, though not by as much as you would think.
With Aldridge and Damian Lillard leading the way, the team will likely still make the playoffs and win just about 50 games.
Now, some of those factors likely won’t be repeatable next season. For one, the team will likely not stay as healthy as they did. It is extremely unlikely for an NBA team to have it’s starters play in 97 percent of their games. Two, Aldridge is prone to missing some time with games. He has never played in all 82 games in any season during his career.
If Aldridge misses more than 13 games next year, will the Blazers be able to keep the momentum rolling? And three, the team lives and dies by the jump shot. Aldridge, Lillard and Matthews are very prone to taking long shots during most of the games and historically, those shots will stop falling at some point.
Can the Blazers make the playoffs if the shots stop falling? Their second half doesn’t inspire a lot confidence.