Houston Rockets: Should You Take The 22-to-1 Odds At The Title?
The beginning of the 2014-15 NBA season is right around the corner. Precisely, a 36-day corner. Once the season gets here, speculation starts wearing down/losing value and each team’s real chances at a title and/or devastating season start showing up.
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During the course of the 2014 offseason that “exposed” Daryl Morey’s
human nature,
we covered
Chandler Parsons‘ loss,
Dwight Howard‘s and
Hakeem Olajuwon‘s similarities,
James Harden‘s defense.
Today, in a hypothetical piece, it’s time for us to tackle the “If gambling was legal” side of the Houston Rockets.
(First off, a lesson in sports gambling odds: If a team is a 10-to-1 “favorite”, you will get $10 for every $1 you risk. If you bet $100 on a 10-to-1 team and you win, you will get $1,000 plus your stake, $100.00. So $1,100.00 dollars total.)
If gambling was legal (which is in my country due to some loopholes in Mexican law) the Houston Rockets would be a 22-to-1 “favorite” (Note: not favorite at all) to win the 2014-15 NBA championship.
What does this mean? If you were to bet $100 on the Rockets, unlikely, winning the title, you would get paid $22 for each $1 you risk. A grand total of $2,200 for a $100 bet.
Pretty good bet, right? Wrong.
Why shouldn’t you take this bet?
- The Rockets play in the Western Conference so you’d be betting against the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers, Golden State Warriors.
- At 22-to-1 there’s absolutely no hope whatsoever on the Rockets. Sure, the profit’s amazing but the chances of it happening are slim … very.
- When something seems to good to be true, it usually is.
Better odds* around the NBA:
Los Angeles Clippers 2015 NBA Champions: 11/1
"It’s only after you’ve lost everything, that you’re free to do anything. – Tyler Durden"
Don’t know what I mean?
The Clippers had a 7-point Game 5 lead against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Oklahoma City with about one minute to go … then the last 1:08 minutes of the fourth quarter happened:
- 1:08 Blake Griffin makes free-throw 1/2. Clippers 102 – OKC 97.
- 1:08 Blake Griffin misses free-throw 2/2. Clippers 102 – OKC 97.
- Clippers Offensive Rebound.
- 0:49 Chris Paul hits elbow two-point shot. Clippers 104 – OKC 97.
- 0:43 Kevin Durant hits a three-point shot. Clippers 104 – OKC 100.
- 0:24 Jamal Crawford misses on a drive to the basket.
- 0:19 Kevin Durant makes a two-point fast break point. Clippers 104 – OKC 102.
- 0:17 Chris Paul takes the ball and expects to get fouled by Russell Westbrook. Tries to pass the ball instead of taking the foul (WHAT?…). Loses the ball to OKC’s Reggie Jackson.
- 0:11 Out of bounds. Thunder ball.
- 0:06 Russell Westbrook draws a foul on a three-point shot.
- 0:06 Russell Westbrook makes free-throw 1/3. Clippers 104 – OKC 103.
- 0:06 Russell Westbrook makes free-throw 2/3. Clippers 104 – OKC 104.
- 0:06 Russell Westbrook makes free-throw 3/3. Clippers 104 – OKC 105.
And scene …
After an Oscar-worthy performance from Reggie Jackson and a series of questionable calls from the guys in grey, the Clippers, in the midst of an off-court drama involving their now ex-owner Donald Sterling, “lost everything” in that series against the Thunder, who eventually took Game 6 in the Staples Center to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Adversity, check.
Also, look at Michael Dunlap’s piece on the 2014-15 Clippers, here.
Sure, not as juicy a reward as the Rockets’ 22/1 odds but a far more likely outcome to the season.
Golden State Warriors 2015 NBA Champions: 30/1
If you’re going to take a gamble, why wouldn’t you with a team that features two of the best shooters in the NBA and the top two 3-point shooters in the 2013-14 season?
A look at Stephen Curry‘s and Klay Thompson‘s shooting numbers for 2013-14:
Rk | Player | PER | TS% | eFG% | 3PAr | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | WS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Klay Thompson | 14.3 | .555 | .533 | .425 | 22.6 | 108 | 106 | 6.7 |
2 | Stephen Curry | 24.1 | .610 | .566 | .445 | 28.3 | 117 | 104 | 13.4 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/22/2014.
Curry (1) and Thompson (2), a. k. a. The Splash Brothers, led the league in 3-point field goals with 261 and 223, respectively.
Chicago Bulls 2015 NBA Champions: 9/1
The Bulls offense struggled during the 2013-14 season and they’ve got everything riding on Derrick Rose‘s second coming.
Here are Rose’s numbers during the 2014 FIBA World Cup:
- .350/.053/.800, 4.8 points per game, 3.1 assists per game.
Never mind, clearly another stay-away.
The Rockets evidently took a step back during the 2014 offseason. As a team that lost two experienced stars in Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons and replaced only one of them with Trevor Ariza, the Rockets’ chances at the 2015 NBA title are riding, solely on Howard and Harden matching up against the league’s elite-st elite in the Western Conference.
So no, even if gambling was legal, you shouldn’t take the Houston Rockets to win the 2015 NBA championship at 22-to-1.
(*Considering the chances said team has to fulfil the goal and/or comply with your bet by winning the NBA Title)