ACC: Will Marcus Paige Win Player Of The Year?
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Preseason award projections are an inexact science. Sometimes players are chosen as the preseason ACC Player of the Year because they were the most high profile returning player from the previous season, or perhaps the media believes a giant leap in playing time will result in a significant increase in production in a previously underused player.
Other times, the hot new talented freshmen star is crowned by default. This season the preseason favorite resides in the heart of tobacco road in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Marcus Paige was a highly ranked recruit coming out of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He was ranked in the top 100 in several different recruiting outlets and was named to the McDonalds All-American Game.
When it came time to choose a school, he chose North Carolina over closer and also prestigious schools like Kansas and Illinois.
At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, Marcus Paige is not the most physically imposing player, but his skills more than make up for his lack of size. He is a good 3-point shooter, both off the dribble and coming off screens.
He is a very good ball handler and can get into the lane and score despite his smaller stature. If you are not familiar with college basketball, a good NBA comparison would be Goran Dragic thanks to his left-handed shot and the similar skill set.
Paige was expected to be next in a line of Roy Williams led point guards who excelled early in their careers and developed into team leaders and maybe even national champions. That list included Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson, and Kendall Marshall, who all find themselves currently on NBA rosters after having productive careers at North Carolina.
Unfortunately for Paige, the beginning of his career would not be as successful.
He found steady playing time, but his freshman year he struggled with consistency. That first season he averaged 8.2 points and 4.6 assists in 29.2 minutes per game. He shot a disappointing 35.6 percent and also turned the ball over 2.5 times per game.
His potential would show up in flashes, such as a 19-point effort against Virginia Tech in which Paige knocked down four 3-pointers. He showed so much promise Tar Heel fans were just waiting to see it all click.
Last year it clicked right from the start. Paige started fast and never looked back.
His coming-out party happened in a Nov. 24 game against third-ranked Louisville. Paige led UNC to a 93-84 upset victory over the Cardinals by scoring 32 points on 9-of-12 shooting.
It was a breakout game and one that would set the tone for the rest of the season.
Paige would improve his numbers in almost every category last season. He would lead the Tar Heels in scoring, averaging 17.5 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds per game in a team high 35.6 minutes per game. He would also raise his field goal percentage to 44 percent, his 3-point percentage to 38.9 percent, and lower his turnovers per game to 2.1.
It was a step forward that would raise the play of North Carolina as a whole and assert Paige as an ACC Player of the Year candidate.
If the Louisville game was a coming out party then the Feb. 26 matchup with NC State was his magnum opus. Locked in a tight battle with a bitter rival, Paige had his best game of the season scoring 35 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing out five assists. He also knocked down seven 3-three point shots in the back-and-forth offensive shootout.
The game saw Paige and eventual ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren trade baskets all game. Whenever one team would fall behind, their star player would shoot them back into it. It seemed clear that whoever had the ball last was going to be the winner, and that is just what happened.
Warren made one of two free throws to give the Wolfpack an 84-83 lead with just seconds remaining in overtime.
Paige calmly took the inbounds pass and headed up the court with time winding down. He arrived at the top of the key, went around a screen and drove to the basket, knocking down a contested lay-up to give North Carolina an 85-84 win.
The crowd was stunned and the Tar Heels were elated. It was another statement game for Paige and one North Carolina and NC State fans will never forget.
The season ended on a bitter note for Paige and North Carolina. In the third round of the NCAA tournament they fell to Iowa State in an 85-83 barn-burner.
Paige took the loss particularly hard after turning the ball over late in the second half in a crucial situation.
As he discussed the game in the locker room you could hear his voice crack, and there were tears in his eyes. He was distraught. It was the image of a player who cared so much about his team and did not want to let them down. The image of a player motivated to get better and put this game behind him.
The combination of skill, and competitiveness Paige displayed last season leads me to believe he is going to show another leap in performance. For this North Carolina team to reach its ceiling Paige is going to have to keep playing at the elite level he showed last season.
There is little doubt that he has the talent and hunger to turn the Tar Heels into title contenders and bring home some individual hardware for himself.
The honored jerseys that hang in the Dean E. Smith Center are plentiful with several representing players that have won ACC Player of the Year. So far Lennie Rosenbluth, Pete Brennan, Lee Shaffer, Billy Cunningham, Larry Miller, Mitch Kupchak, Phil Ford, Michael Jordan, Antawn Jamison, Joseph Forte, Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, and Tyler Zeller make up the storied group of Tar Heels who have won the award.
If all goes according to plan this season, you can add Marcus Paige to the end of that list.