Oklahoma City Thunder: History Offers Few Clues For Game 6

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs Saturday night in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, a series in which the home teams are 5-0.

That would seem to bode well for the Thunder, who won their two games at Chesapeake Energy Center in the series so far by scores of 106-97 in Game 3 on Sunday (heretofore known as “The Serge Ibaka Game”) and 105-92 in Game 4 on Tuesday.

Conversely, the Thunder have been ripped at San Antonio’s AT&T Center thus far in the series, losing three games by an average of 26.7 points, with their Game 1 loss on May 19 qualifying as the “close game”—Oklahoma City lost by only 17 points.

This will be the fifth time the Thunder have faced elimination on their home floor since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City in 2008.

They are 2-2 in their previous four chances at staving off elimination at home:

2010 Western Conference First Round Game 6: Lost 95-94 to L.A. Lakers
2011 Western Conference Semifinals Game 7: Beat Memphis 105-90
2013 Western Conference Semifinals Game 5: Lost 88-84 to Memphis
2014 Western Conference First Round Game 7: Beat Memphis 120-109

By contrast, the Spurs are 19-8 under coach Gregg Popovich when presented an opportunity to close out a series on the road. But you might want to look for the alarming trend at the bottom of the list:

1999 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Won at Minnesota 92-85
1999 Western Conference Semifinals Game 4: Won at L.A. Lakers 118-107
1999 Western Conference Finals Game 4: Won at Portland 94-80
1999 NBA Finals Game 5: Won at New York 78-77
2001 Western Conference First Round Game 3: Lost at Minnesota 93-84
2001 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Won at Minnesota 97-84
2001 Western Conference Semifinals Game 4: Lost at Dallas 112-108
2002 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Lost at Seattle 91-79
2003 Western Conference First Round Game 6: Won at Phoenix 87-85
2003 Western Conference Semifinals Game 6: Won at L.A. Lakers 110-82
2003 Western Conference Finals Game 6: Won at Dallas 90-78
2004 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Won at Memphis 110-97
2005 Western Conference Semifinals Game 6: Won at Seattle 98-96
2005 Western Conference Finals Game 5: Won at Phoenix 101-95
2006 Western Conference First Round Game 6: Won at Sacramento 105-83
2007 NBA Finals Game 4: Won at Cleveland 83-82
2008 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Lost at Phoenix 105-86
2008 Western Conference Semifinals Game 7: Won at New Orleans 91-82
2012 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Won at Utah 87-81
2012 Western Conference Semifinals Game 4: Won at L.A. Clippers 102-99
2013 Western Conference First Round Game 4: Won at L.A. Lakers 103-82
2013 Western Conference Semifinals Game 6: Won at Golden State 94-82
2013 Western Conference Finals Game 4: Won at Memphis 93-86
2013 NBA Finals Game 6: Lost at Miami 103-100
2013 NBA Finals Game 7: Lost at Miami 95-88
2014 Western Conference First Round Game 6: Lost at Dallas 113-111
2014 Western Conference Semifinals Game 4: Lost at Portland 103-92

San Antonio has lost its last four road closeout chances, including two in this year’s playoffs.

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In the first round against the Dallas Mavericks, the Spurs couldn’t finish off the feisty No. 8 seed and wound up having to win a Game 7 at home. The situation was less dire against the Trail Blazers in the conference semifinals—all that was lost by not winning Game 4 was the opportunity for a couple of days more rest and the bragging rights of a sweep.

It’s the first two games in the current streak that are likely driving San Antonio this time around. The Spurs had two chances to secure their fifth NBA title last June at American Airlines Arena in Miami and couldn’t close the deal.

The most poignant of those was, of course, Game 6 (heretofore known in San Antonio as “^#*@%&%&@)@ Game 6”), when Ray Allen’s late corner 3 forced overtime after San Antonio had a five-point lead with 28.2 seconds remaining.

In yet another argument against relying on regular-season results to postseason outcomes, the Spurs are poised to become the second team in NBA history (and the second this postseason) to win a playoff series against it was swept by in at least four games during the regular year.

But for that to happen tonight, the Spurs will have to buck a couple of trends—they are 0-4 at Chesapeake Energy Arena this season, including the playoffs.

And then there’s that four-game losing streak in road clinchers to contend with.