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5-On-5 Roundtable: First Round Western Conference Predictions

By Gerald Bourguet

Oct 31, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) fouls Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) in the first quarter of the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 31, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) fouls Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) in the first quarter of the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Dallas Mavericks:
Regular season head-to-head record: SAS 4-0

Western Conference predictions
Dec 26, 2013; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks power forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) passes the ball to shooting guard Monta Ellis (not pictured) after stealing the ball from San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (21) during the second half at the American Airlines Center. The Spurs defeated the Mavericks 116-107. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

Michael Dunlap, Hoops Habit Editor-in-Chief: Every single season, I write the Spurs off. Every single season, I’m proven wrong. I might be in the minority here, but I think the Mavs will play the Spurs harder than others are predicting. Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki have been trending up and I see that continuing. Dirk is averaging 23.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists with a shooting line of .561/.488/.766 in his last 10. With that said, the Spurs are the better and deeper team. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard will pull them through. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Phil Watson, Hoops Habit Assistant Editor: Losing at Memphis on the last night of the season was devastating for the Mavericks, because it dropped them into a first-round matchup with their arch-nemesis from the southeastern part of Texas. It’s not just that the Spurs swept the Mavericks this year, winning by an average of 11.5 points per game. It’s that the Mavericks haven’t beaten San Antonio in nine tries. The Spurs annihilated Dallas on the glass in the four meetings (48.8 rebounds per game to 39.5 for the Mavs) and shot 47.7 percent and 43.3 percent from 3-point range. Dallas countered with 45.3 percent and 36.4 percent. Monta Ellis was solid in the four matchups, averaging 21.3 points, and Dirk Nowitzki averaged 18.5, but the Spurs’ depth makes the difference. That and the fact that Tony Parker kills the Mavericks (23.3 points, 5.7 assists, 54.2 percent shooting in three games this season). Prediction: Spurs in 5

Gerald Bourguet, Hoops Habit Assistant (To The Regional) Editor: When the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks went head-to-head in the final game of the regular season, most Spurs fans were rooting for the Grizz so they wouldn’t see Zach Randolph or Marc Gasol in the first round. They got their wish, and a preferable first round matchup, since San Antonio has won its last NINE games against Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis will have a great series and keep the Mavs somewhat competitive, but the Spurs are an offensive powerhouse and Tony Parker will eat Jose Calederon with a side of crepes for his multi-cultural breakfast. This is the least competitive series of the West’s first round. Prediction: Spurs in 5

Shane Young, Hoops Habit Staff Writer: This sets up for a Texas rivalry with two outstanding coaches.  While Gregg Popovich should win Coach of the Year, it should be against the law that everyone continues to underrate Rick Carlisle.  He’s appropriately adjusted Monta Ellis into a team-first player and San Antonio’s guards have a difficult task of stopping Ellis’ penetration.  Nobody stops Dirk Nowitzki’s one-legged magic, but I don’t have confidence in Dallas’ defense to stop the floor spacing the Spurs have. It’s a work of beauty, just watch closely. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Nathan Giese, Hoops Habit Staff Writer: The ol’ trusty steeds known as the San Antonio Spurs do it again and reign atop the Western Conference. Should we really be surprised? Gregg Popovich may be known more for winning that comes with intense, no-nonsense in-game interviews, which is saying something. Dallas doesn’t really have an answer for anything the Spurs throw at them anymore. The Mavericks always play SA tough but couldn’t come away with a win this year, going 0-4 against the Spurs this season. Dirk Nowitzki is having a great year but the question is can the rest of the Mavericks keep Duncan and Parker in check? No, they cannot. Prediction: Spurs in 4