College Basketball Preview 2013-14: Don’t Believe The Hype On Andrew Wiggins

Let’s get one thing straight: Andrew Wiggins is a great basketball player. I don’t want you to think otherwise, because he’s an incredible talent. He’s destined for a career playing professional basketball, and I’m sure he’ll make a fine living doing it. But, I’m not so sure that he’s the second coming of LeBron James – heck, I don’t think he’s the second coming of Paul George. In fact, I think Wiggins is more Michael Kidd-Gilchrist than Michael Jordan.

It has to be tough to be Wiggins right now. Sure, he has more God given talent in his left pinky than most people have in their entire body, and I’m certain he has an easier go of it with the ladies of KU then the average freshman in the dorms, but could you imagine what it must be like to have that immense heap of expectations tossed on your shoulders after a few sick YouTube videos?* He’s had countless articles written on him (like this one), he’s been featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated and ESPN The Magazine, his signing with Kansas immediately boosted the Jayhawks from a fringe top 10 team straight into every preseason top 5, he’s going to have to deal with this hoopla all season long, and he’s going to have a target on his back night-in and night-out. Oh, and he’s only 18.

The last player to come into college with this kind of hype? Probably Greg Oden. The last time expectations were this high in Phog Allen Field House? 2005, when the expectations were shouldered by three players in Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, and Julian Wright. That’s a lot of pressure on a kid from Toronto, Canada whose career has never really been featured in the spotlight. Yeah, the internet camera crews showed up to most of his AAU games and he wasn’t playing in front of small crowds as his Huntington Prep team traveled nation-wide his senior year of high school, but to walk into the heart of the Midwest, at the hoops-crazed center of it all, and know that your teams going to be featured in countless televised games nation-wide? That’s going to be a lot to handle. The point is, just because you come into college with the label of “savior” doesn’t exactly mean you’re going to live up to the hype.

And maybe I’m wrong; to sit here and tell you that this kid, who could dunk a basketball through the heart of wicked west tornado, isn’t going to be able to handle pressure is a bit absurd, isn’t it? But if you look to the past, history will show that maybe I’m not so crazy. Last year’s top recruit: Nerlens Noel. Pre-knee injury, he was a great defensive force, but he struggled mightily on the offensive end of the floor, and was a liability with the ball in his hands more often the not. 2011’s top prep player? Anthony Davis. He certainly set the bar high, blocking everything in sight and winning everything imaginable, both for his team as an individual. But what about Harrison Barnes’ freshman season? He certainly had a rough go of it early on, and ended up spending an extra season in school to refine his game, because the bright lights certainly exposed the holes he had to fill in it. Do you really remember Avery Bradley‘s first year in Texas? What about Samardo Samuels career at Lousiville? The last class where every top high schooler came into college and performed to expectations? All the way back in 2007, when Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, O.J Mayo, and Derrick Rose came in and set the game ablaze.

He’s also not going into the most favorable of situations. Kansas is replacing all five starters, and though they’ve brought in a stellar bunch of recruits alongside Wiggins (including Wayne Selden, who may end up outshining Wiggins on more nights than you’d think), Bill Self’s record with five-star freshman isn’t quite a bright spot on his resume. Last year, Perry Ellis saw the floor much less than you’d want and didn’t do much when on the court. Ben McLemore wowed people last season, but that was after he spent a year on the bench as a red-shirt. The Morris Twins didn’t become forces until later in their careers, Thomas Robinson didn’t shine until his junior year, and the aforementioned trio of stars in 2005 didn’t truly hit their stride until their junior years. The fact of the matter is, Self may help Wiggins develop certain skills to become a better pro and more complete player, but he’s not John Calipari – and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Which brings us to Bill Self. If Wiggins had gone to Kentucky, like fellow prime time prospect Julius Randle, he would’ve ran with a crop of talent and been able to flourish in the Calipari’s drive and kick system that would best fit Wiggins slash and destroy style of play, but he chose Kansas. If Wiggins had gone to North Carolina he would’ve ran in coach Roy Williams high-tempo offense, got up and down the court alongside James Michael McAdoo, P.J Hairston, and been able to show off that incredible athleticism in the AAU-like open floor style that Williams teams like to play, but he chose Kansas. Bill Self’s teams are relatively the same, year in and year out. They play physical basketball, they emphasize ball movement, and Self finds a way to maximize his players strengths, while hiding their weaknesses – like a good coach should. But Self has rarely had an athlete like Wiggins to use in his system. Kansas runs, but not a ton (24th in ppg last year), they shoot a decent amount of three pointers (5.4 per game in 2012), and they usually have one player that carries their offense (See: Ben McLemore, 2012). So can Wiggins be that player that creates his own offense when the Jayhawks meet a tough defense? We’ll see. He’s an average ball-handler, and his jumper needs much work, but he’s freakishly long, he’s fully equipped with a 44-inch vertical, and will be able to create many mismatches if that jumper is on. That jump-shot will be watched by every scout imaginable – from opposing teams to pro scouts – to see if he can really make a major and instant impact at both this level and the next. If Self has it his way, he’ll improve that jumper and a whole lot more.

Now, as I stated at the beginning, don’t get me wrong here. I think Andrew Wiggins is an incredibly talented ball player that has a bright future in the NBA. I just think it’s a bit unfair to unload these enormous expectations upon the shoulders of an 18 year-old who hasn’t played a single college basketball game. The statements you’re hearing, “Kansas should be in the Final Four this year.” “He’s the next LeBron James.” Or my personal favorite, “Riggin’ for Wiggins.” It’s all just a bit absurd, isn’t it?

Let’s not forget, I could be wrong here. He’ll have his first chance to prove us naysayers wrong on November 12th when Kansas takes on Duke, led by Jabari Parker – whose expectations were just as high before Wiggins reclassified into the class of 2013. It’s a can’t miss game, and the nation’s first taste of a kid that’s been built up to be the next big thing. If he shines under the bright lights, I’ll be the first to admit I’m wrong. But don’t be shocked if he shoots poorly from the outside and has more than a few mental errors. It’s what we’d expect from any other freshman, why should he be any different?

*Yes, he did a bit more than have a few sick YouTube videos, but isn't that
how we all initially heard of him?

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