Stat Central: Welcome To The New NBA, Part One — Behind The Arc

Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks are one of the NBA’s leading 3-point shooting teams. (Flickr.com photo by Keith Allison)

As we get this year’s incarnation of Stat Central under way, I thought it would be a good idea to start with how the NBA has evolved over the last 15 years and exactly what that looks like statistically. Particularly I want to focus on three areas: the use and evolution of the 3-point shot, how pace factors into and effects offensive efficiency and the revelation that the possession battle matters.

The 3 Ball

As basketball has evolved one of the biggest, noticeable visible has been changes occupation of the painted area. As the game has grown paint occupancy has become less and less dense as perimeter players — and even some big men nowadays —  have edged farther and farther away from the paint and towards the 3-point line. This evolution has seemed to have reached its pinnacle as teams are taking more 3s than ever, both out of their desperate pursuit of floor spacing and the realization that 3-point jump shots are more efficient than their mid-range counterparts (because, you know, a 3 is worth points than a 2).

This visible evolution bears out statistically as well. Last season, 17 teams shot more than 20 3s per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks led the surge with a bordering on insane 31.4 3s. Ten years ago, during the 2002-03 campaign, the Boston Celtics led the way with 28 attempts per 100 possessions and, while that number is not too far off from last year’s Knickerbockers, as a whole the NBA shot fewer 3s in the 2002-03 season. Specifically, only five teams managed 20 3-point attempts per 100 possessions — six if including a Milwaukee Bucks team that shot 19.9 — a relatively small percentage of the league compared to the 2012-13 campaign. The 3-point shot was even more stark 15 seasons ago, when only three teams managed more than 20 threes per 100 possessions. That year, the 1997-98 season, the Houston Rockets led the way with 21.5 attempts per game with the other two, more than 20 squads managing 20.1 attempts per 100 possessions. In layman’s terms, last year’s Knicks took eight to 10 more 3s per game than the 1997-98 Houston Rockets — depending on the pace each team played at — and in general more than half of last year’s NBA teams took more more 3s than the Rockets did 15 years ago.

The concept of being more efficient and proficient from behind the arc has led to more efficient offense, as well. Of the 10 top offenses in basketball last year (via NBA.com’s offensive rating) six were also top 10 in 3-point field goal percentage. Seven of those top 10 teams were also top 10 in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. The only top 10 offense missing from both groups was the Denver Nuggets’ offense, whose absence can mostly be explained by their complete lack of 3-point shooters. So, every team that managed a top 10 offense last year, sans Denver, was either fairly efficient from behind the arc or managed to fire up a ton of shots from deep — and most teams were a mix a both. Essentially, there was a distinct correlation between teams that took and made a lot of 3s and teams that were successful on offense.

Corner Pocket

And the final point on the 3-point shot is a quick addendum regarding the corner 3. This is another one of those no-brainers that we as a basketball community are for some reason just collectively figuring out, but 3s below the break are significantly closer shots than 3s above the break. As a result teams shoot a much higher percentage from the corner than they do from above the break 3-point shots. Since, again, 3s are worth more than 2s — and corner 3s create more space than mid-range shots — the most efficient teams are trading in a large portion of mid-range jump shots and above the break 3s  for corner 3-point shots. Eight of the previously mentioned top 10 offenses were in the top 10 in corner 3s per game, as well (NBA.com does not have a corner 3 per 100 possession statistic). The only two teams missing from the list were Oklahoma City and Golden State. The Thunder’s absence is most likely a product of their lack of structure and purposeful attack offensively while the Warriors absence is simply a crime against the coaching staff — the Warriors shot a deadly 45.8 percent from the corners (second in the NBA) but only took 4.8 of these 3s per game. In general the corner 3 is being taken more often just like the 3-point shot in general is being taken more — though an in-depth analysis of the percentage of corner 3s per 3-point attempts is probably necessary to make any real claims about the shot being taken more. In 2002-03 only seven teams shot more than five corner 3s per game, while in 2012-13 17 teams passed that clip. In 2002-03 the leaders in corner 3 attempts, the Boston Celtics managed 6.4 3s per game, while last year’s leader, the Miami Heat, took 8.8 3s per game.

All that to say, the 3-point shot is extremely more effective and an extremely bigger factor than it was 10 years ago. As the game continues to evolve we will probably see 3-point attempts settle into a comfortable statistical range. But one thing is for sure, teams will keep taking them and teams should keep taking them.

Part Two will be up next Friday.

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