NBA: And We’re Back, Part 2 — The Come Up
Kyrie Irving of the Cleveland Cavaliers shown in an undated photo. (Photo by slimm978/Flickr.com)
Check out part one, on the Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Los Angeles Lakers.
There is no denying that the landscape of the NBA heading into this season is vastly different than what we saw last year. A healthy Chicago looks to return to form; Brooklyn’s new crew of veterans is hoping to force themselves into title contention; the up-and-coming Golden State Warriors have lodged themselves into Western power; and in general the West is as deep as it has been since 2008 — when the Warriors missed out on the playoffs despite winning 48 games. But when you take a closer look at the picture, most of the changes projected will be marginal. Fringe playoff teams are becoming playoff threats, simple playoff threats are becoming contenders and some bad teams are getting worse, but overall the changes will not be making a big difference in the standings come April. There are a couple of teams,though, that project to make big leaps this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers
According to the front office, they are not making another trip to the NBA lottery and with the moves they made this offseason — acquiring Jarrett Jack and Andrew Bynum — as well as the development of their younger players, the Cavaliers do in fact look playoff bound. A big factor in just how successful they will be this year, though, will be their ability to defend at a passable rate. Last season the Cavs earned a 106.9 defensive rating, which tied for fourth worst with the Portland Trail Blazers (per NBA.com). While they were generally bad defensively, one of the main issues with their defense was their inability to defend the paint. They allowed 44.4 points in the paint per 100 possessions — not horrible, but the 17th-ranked paint defense in basketball — while teams shot 64.1 percent against them in the restricted area (the third-worst percentage in basketball). They also struggled on defensive glass, allowing 14.3 second chance points per 100 possessions.
The addition of Andrew Bynum, the prospect of a healthy Anderson Varejao and the abilities of Mike Brown as a defensive coach should help the team improve on defense this season, though. When Varejao was on the court last season, the Cavs were better at protecting the paint — only allowing 42.1 points in the paint per 100 possessions — and were significantly better on the boards, allowing only 11.8 second chance points. The reuniting of Mike Brown and Andrew Bynum should also lead to a replication of the duo’s defensive accomplishments in Los Angeles. During their year together as Lakers the team posted a 100.9 defensive rating when Bynum was on the court. They also held opponents to 43.1 points in the paint per 100 possessions and only 13.4 second chance points. These numbers are not huge strides above Cleveland’s work last year, but the noticeable bump on the defensive end should help the Cavs succeed next season.
Offensive improvements should also come with their new additions and the team’s overall improvement, but a successful offensive season will rely on some ingenuity and reprogramming from Mike Brown and the coaching staff. Specifically, this team will have to become a better ball distribution team and they will have to be creative in how they create space down low. The big man rotation of Bynum, Varejao, and Tristan Thompson has plenty of talent, but none of these bigs is all that competent outside the paint — though Varejao did show a feathery touch from the left side on limited attempts last year. If the Cavs want to have necessary floor spacing they will need the players and the coaching staff will have to be innovated. That being said, Bynum has proven in the past he can successfully play alongside another big man who wants time around the paint. It is not far reaching to assume that Varejao on Thompson can find ways to create space and get open playing alongside Bynum and playing with each other.
As far as ball distribution goes, the road from Cleveland is a little tougher. The Cavs only assisted on 56.6 percent of their possessions last season, the fourth-lowest mark in the NBA. And it is hard to see exactly how Cleveland will improve in that regard. Of the Cavs’ core players — Kyrie Irving, Bynum, Varejao, Dion Waiters, Thompson, and Jarrett Jack — only Jack and Varejao logged an assist ratio that was above average for their position (via HoopsData). Most of their roster trends to a shoot-first type of style and their main perimeter scoring threats — Jack, Waiters and Irving — tend to score without the help of an assist. Not being a great assist team is not a death sentence for an offense — especially with dynamic scorers like Irving and Bynum — but Cleveland’s best chance at being successful probably involves the ball moving a little bit more. If they are able to do, there is a good chance this team will be sniffing the playoffs come April.
Make sure you check out the follow up to this article, where I look at the Minnesota Timberwolves.
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