NBA: Paul George–The Newest ‘Max Guy’
The Indiana Pacers’ Paul George. (Photo Credit: IsoSports, Flickr.com)
Paul George and the Indiana Pacers are finalizing a maximum-level contract extension for the Indiana small forward. The Pacers will be using their five-year contract on George and the deal projects to pay just more than $90 million to George — using salary cap projections from Larry Coon and Marc Stein. However, if George earns a second All-NBA nod this season he will be eligible for the “Derrick Rose” max contract, which projects to pay more than $108 million over the five-year deal. Indiana has not indicated whether they would consent to a Derrick Rose max if George is eligible — current reports claim a “rookie-scale max’ valued at $90 million — but current precedent indicates if George earns eligibility, he will get the contract. Rose and Kevin Durant are the only two players who have met the “fifth year 30 percent max” criteria and both players received the salary bump. Also, last year’s max contract agreement between James Harden and the Houston Rockets — the same agreement George and Pacers are coming to now — indicated Harden would have received the Derrick Rose max if he would have been eligible (by winning the MVP that season). So potentially, Indiana could pay Paul George $108 million on his new contract.
The problem is, that is significantly more money than anybody has to pay Paul George. I have talked about the risks of letting a player hit restricted free agency, but at the end of the day the pros typically outweigh cons. That is because no matter what problems restricted free agency may bring with, the Indiana Pacers would still have the ability to match any contract offered on Paul George next summer. The max offer George could get on the market next year is a four-year contract nearing $67 million — or just more than $80 million via the Derrick Rose max. So Indiana could save anywhere from $10 million to $28 million by letting Paul George hit restricted free agency next summer, as opposed to giving him a max-level contract right now. It is an understandable choice; nobody is questioning Durant or Rose’s contract, though in Rose’s case there may be a reason they should. However, you still have to question whether Paul George is worth that commitment and payday at this point in his career.
Specifically, that’s because Paul George has not necessarily proven he is a max contract player on the offensive end of the court. George averaged only 17.4 points per game last season while shooting only 41.9 percent from the field (all stats via NBA.com). Those numbers are above average and middling at best and a further breakdown of George’s game on offense reveals more areas of concern. George shot 59.4 percent from the restricted area last season, ranking only 144th in the league among players who took at least 75 shots at the rim. Worse, he shot a dismal 31.5 percent on paint shots not in the restricted area last year — for a perimeter player, these are the floater, push shots and flicks a player has to use to when an interior defender stalls them from getting all the way to the rim. That ranked 169th out of the 201 players who took at least 50 of these shots last season. From the mid-range George was not much better; he shot 36.3 percent on mid-range shots last year, good for only 164th out of the 235 players who took at least 75 mid-range jumpers last season. George does find some solace as a 3-point shooter though. He shot 41.8 percent from the corners — cracking the top 50 with number — while shooting a very good 43.1 percent from the left corner and an above average 40.4 percent from the right corner. He becomes a more pedestrian 3-point shooter above the break, but overall George is a 3-point threat you have to respect and stay close to.
But maybe the most damning and revealing aspect of George’s game is inability to get to the free throw line. Only 16 percent of George’s points came via free throws last season. That ranked 179th among players who played at least 30 games and five minutes per game last season. To me that illustrates George’s biggest flaw offensively. He is not the type of player who can consistently get to the line. That type of player is a player that cannot create shots and cannot create shots for others. A month into the season last year Frank Vogel told George he could no longer attempt to split the defenders after coming off an on-ball screen; George does not have the offensive polish to pull of that type of move. That lack of offensive polish extends to almost all areas of George’s offensive game. He is not the type of player who can isolate or come off of a screen and create a great shot for himself or for his teammates. His options in the half court typically boil down to a inefficient pull-up jumper; a tricky shot five to 10 feet away from the basket; a shot at the rim amid a plethora of defenders; or a kick out to another guard so Indiana can trudge their way through their offense while the shot clock dwindles away.
Look, Paul George is not a bad player on the offensive end. Despite all the struggles mentioned earlier he is still at worst an average scorer, and is an above average scoring small forward at his best. Considering what he provides on the defensive end, that type of production is sufficient, and that is why George is quite clearly the fourth best player at his position. However, you have to ask whether a team should shell out $90 million for a defense-first guy who has not proven he is capable of scoring the basketball on an elite level — or a consistently above average level for that matter. Indiana seems to have made their decision, we will see how it pans out for them.
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