Milwaukee Bucks: The Dilemma–Brandon Jennings or Monta Ellis?
Milwaukee Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings is an explosive talent capable of putting up 30 or 40 points in any given game. You could easily say the same about shooting guard Monta Ellis, who the Bucks acquired by sending former No. 1 overall draft pick Andrew Bogut to the Golden State Warriors in 2012. Both are terrific, exciting, and young. Both are also free agents (Jennings is restricted, while Monta is free to go where he pleases). It’s been reported that Milwaukee will only be bringing one back for the 2013-14 season. Some may have seen this coming, as two shoot-first, volume scorers in one backcourt was probably a bad idea from the start. So who is the guy with the most potential to lead this franchise back into prominence?
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Brandon Jennings
Age: 23
2012-13 numbers: 17.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists per game. 39.9 percent shooting from the floor, 37.7 percent from 3.
Pros: Not many people in the NBA are as unstoppable as Brandon Jennings when he gets it going. The 6’1″ lefty had nine 30-point games last season and finished 11th in the NBA in 3-point field goals made with 173 (2.2 per game). Jennings is a home-grown talent who likes being a Milwaukee Buck, a combination that in itself is tough to come by these days. Because he is a restricted free agent, the Bucks can allow the league to dictate the exact market for him and simply match whatever deal another team initially offers, all but ensuring they won’t be overpaying to bring him back. Jennings is also still just 23 years old despite having completed four years in the NBA. So, in essence, even though he has a good amount of experience, there is still plenty of room for him to improve and plenty of time for him to get there. Most NBA players hit their prime at 27. In four years, with the right coach in place of course, Jennings could potentially be a perennial all-star in the Eastern Conference.
Cons: The biggest glaring flaw in Brandon Jennings right now as a player is his efficiency. For a guy who led the Milwaukee Bucks in shot attempts last season, Jennings shot less than 40 percent from the floor. We’ve seen it throughout these NBA playoffs: Today’s defenses are too smart to be defeated by a team with a volume scorer as their leading man. Besides his inefficiency, Jennings lack of size makes him an easy target on defense. He doesn’t have the height to compete with taller guards and is too slight to avoid being posted up by bigger, bulkier backcourt players. The shot selection and efficiency can easily be improved upon down the road. However, it will be difficult for Brandon to ever become an elite defensive player at his size.
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Monta Ellis
Age: 27
2012-13 numbers: 19.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 41.6 percent from the floor, 28.7 percent from 3.
Pros: While he may be a similar player to Brandon Jennings stylistically, Monta Ellis had the superior year of the two players overall. Ellis didn’t post one of his monster 25-point-per-game seasons we were becoming accustomed to during his tenure in Golden State, but with all the shooters and scorers in Milwaukee, he wasn’t shooting at nearly the same rate he was on those Warrior teams, either. Monta is a confident player who consistently plays with a chip on his shoulder thanks to being passed over by every team in the NBA in the first round of the 2005 NBA draft. As a volume scorer, there is evidence (thanks to his years in Golden State) that he will not see much of an efficiency dropoff if his shot attempts increase, thanks to the departure of Brandon Jennings. Jennings in this situation is more of an unknown, having only played for four seasons in the NBA.
Cons: Monta Ellis was a turnover machine for a good chunk of this season, finishing 10th in the NBA in turnovers at more than three per contest. Unfortunately, this really isn’t anything new for him, as he’s been at or around the top of the leader board in turnovers per game throughout his entire career. Again, as with Brandon Jennings, Ellis isn’t a true point guard, but instead is essentially forced into the role because of his size. While he is slightly more efficient from the floor than Jennings, he is an abysmal 3-point shooter. Not that this has stopped him from taking them. Monta shot less than 30 percent from deep this season but still managed to jack up four per contest. Defensively, he makes an impact (2.1 steals per game), but, again, he just doesn’t have the size to be a consistently good man to man defender.
The Verdict
It’s easy to see why these players were such a bad fit next to each other in the backcourt for Milwaukee last season. Neither is a distributor, both are undersized and overmatched on defense and both are volume scorers who need the ball to be effective. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are both talented enough to be impact players on contending teams in this league, just not on the same team. They are too similar. But with Jennings being a restricted free agent, which should lead to him receiving a much more manageable contract, the Bucks would be wise to bring him back next season over Monta. As a player right now, deciding who is the more talented lead guard is really a toss-up. But with a new coach in place and some nice pieces on the roster, it stands to reason that Jennings has more room to improve due to the fact that he is just 23 years old and hasn’t spent nearly an entire decade in the league developing bad habits like Monta has.
It’s been reported that the Milwaukee Bucks have shown more interest in bringing back Ellis rather than Jennings, even offering him a three-year, $36 million deal. This would be a mistake. Brandon Jennings is home-grown. He’s young. He’s a fan favorite. And he has star potential. Monta Ellis is a nice player, but he pretty much is what he is at this point. Jennings has the higher ceiling and keeping him locked into Milwaukee long-term would be the correct call from the Bucks front office.