NBA Draft 2013: Breaking Down The Best Fits For Top-Five Spots

With the NBA Draft right around the corner, teams are getting their draft boards ready in hopes that they will be able to land a player that will help upgrade their current rosters. After the NBA Lottery, the top five picks are set and the conjecturing about who will be taken first, second, third and so on, has begun.

Unlike some drafts, which contained a player like LeBron James, there isn’t much consensus on the top pick.

While that is unfortunate for a team like Cleveland, who possesses the first pick, it makes assessing the draft all the more interesting.

Let’s take a look at the first five teams drafting, and analyze how they might approach meeting their needs

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Since 2003, the year the Cavaliers picked LeBron James, they have had three top-five draft picks, all of which are still currently on their roster: Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters.

Thanks to Nick Gilbert, Cleveland will, yet again, be drafting first this year. Despite some disagreement over who should be taken first, CBSSports predicts that Cleveland will choose Nerlens Noel, a center out of Kentucky, first.

Although Noel suffered a torn ACL, abruptly ending his short-lived career at Kentucky, the Associated Press reports that Nerlens Noel’s recovery is “ahead of schedule.” While it is overly optimistic to assume he will be ready by the time the season starts, Noel has no intention of delaying his return and all signs point to him being game ready by Christmas.

Last season, the Cavs were ranked 20th in offensive efficiency[1], scoring 1.005 points per 100 possessions. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland’s defensive efficiency[2] was ranked 25th in the league as they allowed 1.054 points per 100 possessions. Moreover, the Cavaliers were 29th in blocks per game, only blocking an average of 4.1 shots.

At Kentucky, Nerlens Noel averaged an astounding 6.6 blocks per 48 minutes. To use as a reference point, the league leader in blocks this year, Serge Ibaka, averaged 4.6 blocks per 48 minutes. In 2012, when Ibaka had an incredible season where he averaged 3.7 blocks per game, his per 48 average was 6.4.

Obviously there is a difference between the college game and NBA game, and nobody expects Noel, especially coming off an injury, to produce at this level, but the numbers certainly show that the talent is there. Noel’s presence in the paint would bring to Cleveland the kind of force they are desperately in need of down low. His ability to alter shots at the rim, combined with Varejao’s stellar rebounding ability, presents Cleveland with quite the defensive upgrade.

Another scenario that could occur in Cleveland is that they could decide to give Noel as much time as he needs to rest. In doing so, although their record may take a hit, this wouldn’t necessarily be a terrible thing. If Cleveland were to tank this season, they could put themselves in position to win the lottery once again, and draft Andrew Wiggins with the first overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.

According to HoopsHype.com, Cleveland could free up enough cap room to sign a max contract player, say…LeBron.If Cleveland were able to do this, their roster could be VERY dangerous with Kyrie Irving, a more developed Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters, Nerlens Noel and LeBron James.Even if they were unable to bring LeBron back, it’s not hard to imagine that they would be unable to attract a big name with the young, extremely talented core of Irving, Thompson, Waiters and Noel.

2. Orlando Magic

For many Magic fans, after losing Dwight Howard and having a dreadful season, not winning the lottery this year felt like salt in the wound. The good news is that when you’re THIS bad, there is rarely anywhere to go but up (sorry Bobcats fans). They still have the second overall pick, and in a draft where there isn’t a clear cut guaranteed top pick, they have plenty of options that could bring a lot to the table.

Orlando is fighting against recent history when it comes to drafting second, though. The last five players to have been picked second overall are: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2012), Derrick Williams (2011), Evan Turner (2010), Hasheem Thabeet (2009), and Michael Beasley (2008). Thus, although they are almost certain to upgrade their roster, it’s not a given, so they must draft wisely.

According to TeamRankings.com, the Magic ranked 27th offensive efficiency, averaging a mere 0.984 points per 100 possessions. On defense, they also ranked 27th allowing 1.057 points per 100 possessions.  While they’re unlikely to draft a player who will solve both of these issues, the main deficiency that they must address is their lack of guards.

Although they have Jameer Nelson through, at least, next season, his offensive production has dropped significantly. This season his offensive rating was 101, a far cry from a few seasons ago when it was as high as 121, or even 110 in the subsequent season.

Assuming Cleveland drafts Nerlens Noel first, the Magic could opt to draft Ben McLemore out of Kansas. In his only season at Kansas, McLemore averaged 15.9 points per game, with solid offensive rating of 121.4.

McLemore has also proven to be a very efficient offensive player. In the three games where he scored 30+ points, he did so with fewer than 15 shots.Where McLemore struggles is in his ability to create his own shot. According to Hoop-Math.com, 92 percent of the 3-pointers McLemore made were assisted. A positive way to interpretation of this, however, is that McLemore isn’t one to force bad shots, and on a Magic team that ranked eighth in the league in assists, he’s bound to find open shots.

Were the Magic to ignore their need for guards, they could choose to draft a big man. If this is the direction they take, one option they will probably consider is Anthony Bennett, a power forward out of UNLV. This would allow Orlando to treat Glen “Big Baby” Davis, as expendable, and potentially shop him around in hopes of satisfying their need for a guard.

In his freshman season at UNLV, the 6’7” power forward averaged 15.8 points per game, shot 52 percent from the field and snagged an average of eight  rebounds. By drafting Bennett, the Magic would have a very talented, young frontcourt with the ability to score and rebound.

While some predict that Bennett could fall as low as number eight, to Detroit, Bennett’s AAU coach is adamant that Bennet should be a top pick.

And Bennett has shown flashes of greatness.

3. Washington Wizards

With only a 3.5 percent chance of landing the top pick in the 2013 draft, the Washington Wizards have to be considered this year’s draft “winner” as they walked away from the lottery with the third overall pick.

This season, Washington’s offense was dismal, ranking 28th in scoring as they averaged a mere 93.2 points per game.

One option the Wizards have for fixing this is to draft the 6’8” forward out of Georgetown, Otto Porter.

Last season at Georgetown, Porter averaged 16.2 points per game. Moreover, Porter showed that he possess the athleticism to run the court, which is an excellent complement to John Wall, one of the fastest point guards in the league.

Porter possesses excellent court vision, which would give the Wizards’ center, Nene, room to work down low, and get the ball in a position that doesn’t require him to do things with the ball he’s incapable of doing, namely, put it on the floor.

In fact, Porter’s talent is so coveted in this year’s draft, it’s rumored that Cleveland may take him first overall.

If this were to happen, the Wizards’ could find themselves with the ability to draft Nerlens Noel who, as discussed above, would provide a significant upgrade for the Wizards’ ailing frontcourt that consists of a Nene past his prime, and Emeka Okafor.

4. Charlotte Bobcats

Stop me when this sounds familiar: “The Charlotte Bobcats are a lottery team this year.”

Since the Bobcats inception in 2004, they have had seven draft picks in the Top 10.

Despite having so many lottery picks, their combined record of 28-120 from the past two seasons seems to indicate that the Bobcats are lacking in … well, they’re pretty much lacking everything. Last season the Bobcats ranked 30th in field-goal percentage, 27th in 3-point shooting percentage, 27th in total rebounds, and 29th in team assists per game.

When asked what needs Charlotte must fill, most people are tempted to respond, “TALENT. PERIOD. LOL” Unfortunately, this is not likely to be something the Bobcats will be able to fix with one first-round draft pick. However, there are a few players that the Bobcats could select that can, hopefully, upgrade their roster (although that isn’t saying much). If Anthony Bennett were to be available to Charlotte, he is certainly a player that could benefit the Bobcats on both sides of the ball.

However, the draft simply may not be the answer for Charlotte. The Bobcats frontcourt is severely lacking in size and with this draft pick, they may find that the “solution” to some of their problems could come by using the trade value of their draft pick.

According to Derek James of SBNation, the Bobcats could target the likes of Tiago Splitter in hopes of adding size to a sea of undersized forwards and centers. As truly sad as it may be, simply by being able to relegate Brendan Haywood to a backup spot, the Bobcats will have made a significant improvement to their lineup.

5. Phoenix Suns

Since “take a flamethrower to the current roster and start all over” isn’t an option for the Suns, Phoenix will look to the draft in hopes that they can pick a player who will help them along the road to recovery.

With the fifth overall pick and a roster that has several holes in need of filling, the Suns have some flexibility with their approach to this year’s draft.

Phoenix averaged 95.2 points per game last season, which means that they don’t necessarily need to draft a pure scorer, but if they were to do so, it would not hurt. Furthermore, Phoenix also ranked 23rd in effective field goal percentage [3] indicating that even more important than a pure scorer is their need for someone who can score efficiently.

Drafting Victor Oladipo provides one potential solution to this problem. Oladipo is a 6’4” shooting guard out of Indiana, and averaged 13.6 points last season. While this number doesn’t jump off the page, his insane shooting percentage, 60 percent, does. Oladipo also averaged 6.3 rebounds per game, a phenomenal number for a 6’3″ guard.

Although it doesn’t address a need, per se, it’s no secret that Phoenix has become one of the more boring teams in the league. With players like Luis Scola, Goran Dragic, and Marcin Gortat at the helm, the Suns would benefit from an explosive player who has the ability to bring the less than enthused crowd to their feet. Victor Oladipo certainly possesses the ability to jump through the roof.

Aside from his astounding offensive efficiency, Oladipo has proven himself to be a very solid defender. For a team that gave up 101.6 points per game, and were outscored by an average of 6.5 points, adding Oladipo to their roster would provide Phoenix with an instantaneous defensive boost.

Last season, Oladipo led the Big Ten in steals, with 2.2 per game and has the defensive potential to make an immediate defensive impact.

Although the talent in this year’s draft pool doesn’t rival the amalgamation of talent seen in years past, plenty of players offer a lot for these five teams hoping to replace next year’s lottery pick with a playoff spot.

[1] 100 x Pts / (Tm FGA + .40 x Tm FTA – 1.07 x (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Tm DRB)) x (Tm FGA – Tm FG) + Tm TO)

[2] (Opponent’s Points Allowed/ Opponent’s Possessions) x 100

[3] (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA