NBA Free Agency 2013: 5 Free Agents Sure To Be Overpaid

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Brandon Jennings will likely be overpaid when he hits free agency this summer. Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com

Free agency is just around the corner and all 30 teams in the league will be looking to make their team better any way they can. In the desperate attempts to land “name” players and lure fans into seats, teams have been known to pay players more money than they’re worth (Rudy Gay and Joe Johnson, anyone?), so with that in mind, let’s look at some guys who are almost guaranteed to be overpaid when they hit free agency this summer.

Andrew Bynum

Bynum never stepped not on the court this season, but his potential is so tantalizing that someone will almost certainly give him a big payday. The chance to land one of the premiere centers in the game is just to alluring for it not to happen. Unfortunately, at this point there’s just no telling what you might get from Bynum. He might become the centerpiece of your offense or may grab headlines for nothing more than wearing interesting hairstyles while not playing. His potential is solid enough that someone will take the plunge on Bynum and ink him to a sizable deal, but after what the Philadelphia 76ers went through last year, it might not be worth it.

Brandon Jennings

Jennings exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2009, scoring 55 points in a game in just his first month in the league. It gave the impression that he would be a star in the NBA for years to come. Since then, however, he has failed to develop his game in any meaningful way. He’s still a well-below-average shooter and his assist numbers haven’t changed much since his rookie season. Jennings is a reliable scorer and the idea that he still may live up to the potential will make many teams look his way this summer. Really though, there’s a good chance they’ll just be getting an inefficient shoot-first guard who can’t get you past the first round.

SeasonAgeTmLgPosGGSMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS
2009-1020MILNBAPG828232.65.514.8.3711.84.7.3742.73.3.8170.62.83.45.71.30.22.42.315.5
2010-1121MILNBAPG636134.45.714.7.3901.64.8.3233.23.9.8090.73.03.74.81.50.32.32.116.2
2011-1222MILNBAPG666635.37.117.0.4182.05.9.3322.93.6.8080.72.73.45.51.60.32.21.719.1
2012-1323MILNBAPG808036.26.215.6.3992.25.8.3752.93.5.8190.72.33.16.51.60.12.51.917.5
CareerNBA29128934.66.115.5.3941.95.3.3542.93.6.8130.72.73.45.71.50.22.42.017.0

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/20/2013.

Josh Smith

In theory, Josh Smith is a great basketball player, but while he has his share of great moments on the court, he’s never fully been able to put his talents together on a consistent basis. One minute, he throws down an electrifying dunk and you think he could be a franchise player. The next, he shoots three dreadful long 2s in a row, misses all of them, and you wonder how the fine people of Atlanta have out up with this guy for nine years. He will likely go for a change of scenery this year and when he does, whatever team picks him up will be dealing with an occasional great player who creates headaches far too often. Be wary of throwing out the max deal here.

Dwight Howard

I realize this will be a controversial selection, but bear with me for just a moment. We all know Howard is going to get a max deal. Now, is Howard a max level player? Absolutely. Even in his clearly not-all-the-way-there form this year, his raw talent would be enough to justify a max contract. the problem is the heavy baggage Dwight will being with him. Will his back continue to give him problems? Will he play a role in getting another coach fired? Will he ever again display the leadership that allowed the Orlando Magic to reach the Finals in 2009? There’s a lot of questions surrounding Howard and whoever wins the D12 sweepstakes will have to deal with more uncertainty than they realize.

Mo Williams

Players can skate by on reputation for quite some time in this league, which is why Mo Williams is one of the luckier players around. For two years, he got to play with LeBron James with the Cleveland Cavaliers and during that period of time, his game looked a lot better than it really was. His numbers have been decidedly pedestrian since parting ways with the King, but teams will be desperate add a well-known name, someone who they can call a “former All-Star,” even though his selection in 2009 was questionable at best. Mo Williams is a fairly mediocre point guard, but because of those two years in Cleveland, someone will throw money at Williams, desperately hoping he can become something more.

SeasonAgeTmLgPosGMPPERDRtgOWSDWSWSWS/48
2003-0421UTANBASG577729.4106-0.30.50.2.011
2004-0522MILNBAPG80225414.11111.21.02.2.046
2005-0623MILNBAPG58153115.01091.51.02.5.079
2006-0724MILNBAPG68247216.31122.20.93.2.061
2007-0825MILNBAPG66241017.01144.10.54.5.091
2008-0926CLENBAPG81283417.21066.13.79.8.165
2009-1027CLENBAPG69235916.11074.02.76.7.136
2010-1128TOTNBAPG58178813.91130.40.61.0.026
2010-1128CLENBAPG36106513.8114-0.40.3-0.1-0.005
2010-1128LACNBAPG2272314.01120.80.31.1.073
2011-1229LACNBASG52147215.01092.20.72.8.093
2012-1330UTANBAPG46141814.41111.20.71.8.062
CareerNBA6351931015.411022.412.234.7.086

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/21/2013.