Detroit Pistons: Can They Become Contenders In the Near Future?

Greg Monroe has a bright future in Detroit. (Photo Credit: chiuchiu11 flickr)

The 2012-13 season hasn’t been too kind to the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit stands at 25-51 and has no hope of making the playoffs, even though the Pistons have performed well at times. Detroit has some talented young players, but it hasn’t come together this year in Detroit.

However, there is hope for the future.

Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe have had nice seasons for Detroit, Brandon Knight has been a solid guard and the team has five players scoring in double figures (and six players with at least nine points). The Pistons haven’t been extremely efficient and they are above-average in only one major statistical category.

On offense, the Pistons have struggled. They are 23rd in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) and despite having a few players scoring in decent quantities, the Pistons don’t have a premier scorer like Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James. While Monroe, Knight and Drummond are bound to improve on offense, the Pistons just haven’t scored enough.

Detroit’s defense hasn’t been exceptional either. The Pistons rank 24th in defensive efficiency, which goes by the same method as offensive efficiency. The Pistons have allowed 105.9 points per 100 possessions and scored just 100.3 points per 100 possessions, which is a difference of -5.6 points per 100 possessions. That mark that can certainly be improved upon.

While these stats are something to frown upon for Detroit fans, the talent on the team has definitely provided hope. Despite playing less than 20 minutes per game (MPG), Drummond has averaged 18.3 rebounds per 48 minutes and about 18 points per 48 minutes. He isn’t known for scoring, so his field goal percentage (.597) is impressive.

Monroe has been the more impressive offensive player, though. He is leading the Pistons with 16 points per game (PPG) and is shooting 48.1 percent from the field. Monroe also leads the Pistons in rebounds per game (RPG), as he has averaged 9.6 RPG in just over 33 MPG. His 19.34 player efficiency rating (PER) is exceptional and Drummond’s 22.3 PER is incredible as well. The league average is 15, so both players have been efficient.

Jose Calderon has been efficient as well (his 18.91 PER ranks eighth among point guards), has started to run the point more since being traded to Detroit and he has averaged 11.4 PPG in less than 30 MPG. Knight has done well too, as he is averaging a solid 13.2 PPG in just his second NBA season (and in just 31.1 MPG).

The Pistons have capable scorers and while they lack a true superstar that is needed to win championships, they have a solid core that can take Detroit back to the NBA playoffs soon.

If Drummond can stay on the court and play, say, 30 MPG in his second season, he could be one of the best rebounders in the league. Monroe is already one of the better rebounding centers in the game, as he is 12th in RPG. Detroit is 14th in the league in total rebounding, so they are already a decent rebounding team. Drummond and Monroe can team up down low and make the Pistons a formidable rebounding team, because Detroit has the talent to dominate the boards.

And, as we know from strong rebounding teams like the Indiana Pacers succeeding against bad rebounding teams like the Miami Heat, being a good rebounding team can go a long way.

Even though the Pistons are a good rebounding team, there are lots of other aspects the Pistons need to improve in. The Pistons aren’t very efficient on offense and defense and it doesn’t help that the Pistons average less than 93 possessions per game (only seven teams average less).

The Pistons aren’t a very efficient passing team either, as they are tied for 23rd in assists ratio (the percentage of a team’s possessions ending in an assist) with 16.6 percent of their possessions ending in an assist. They have some capable passers, but Calderon is no Chris Paul. He can run the offense well and is a very efficient guard, but he isn’t a star.

The Pistons will get better at these things over time, but it is definitely not a good sign for the Pistons that they are so low in most of these categories. However, their rebounding can take them a long way if Drummond is given more minutes to team up down low with Monroe. Against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday, April 3, Monroe scored 24 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. Detroit dominated the boards, grabbing 52 rebounds (compared to 34 from Boston) and bringing in a remarkable 25 offensive rebounds.

Even though the Pistons played an extremely sloppy game and didn’t capitalize on chances they had to win, the fact that Detroit was so dominating on the glass and the fact that they lost by only five points on the road to a talented (and playoff-bound) Celtics team is encouraging. Knight missed a wide-open layup and Charlie Villanueva missed potential go-ahead and potential game-tying 3s, so the Pistons just weren’t able to come through in the clutch.

Oh, and they shot 36.6 percent. That certainly didn’t help.

However, Detroit is showing signs of improvement and coach Lawrence Frank is giving every player chances to prove themselves. Rodney Stuckey has averaged 21.7 PPG in his last three games and he has been relentless in attacking the hoop and finishing. Despite a poor shooting night against Boston, Stuckey scored 22 points.

How? Because he attacked the hoop and earned 15 free throws.

Even though the stats would suggest otherwise, Detroit has the talent to make the playoffs and actually do something as soon as next year. They have capable passers in Calderon, Knight and Stuckey, as Calderon has averaged 7.1 APG this year. Calderon is 31, but he can still be an solid point guard if he is retained this offseason (which is likely).

The Pistons can use Stuckey (who is a free agent this offseason) or Knight in the backcourt with Calderon (who is also a free agent) as well, with Calderon running the point. Stuckey is a decent passer, but he is a “score-first” guard and could be a nice fit alongside Calderon in the backcourt, functioning as a constant threat to drive to the hoop and score.

Knight is developing into the same kind of player and giving him time alongside a good point guard in Calderon as a shooting guard could be helpful. He is only in his second year, so improvement can be expected. Knight can play point guard and shooting guard and if he improves, he can be a valuable piece for the Pistons in the future.

Small forward is the biggest area of need, but the Pistons will have a high lottery pick and money to spend in free agency. Fellow HoopsHabit writer P.J Sapienza noted here that Matt Barnes could be a good fit in Detroit and he also mentioned the possibility of Detroit pursuing O.J. Mayo. Using three guards with two superb big men down low could be an effective formula and if all three could score (Calderon, Knight and Mayo are all averaging at least 11 PPG), it would be even better.

Once Drummond gets more playing time, the rebounding will be taken care of. Monroe is already dominating on the boards and Drummond has done so in his limited playing time. Against the Celtics on April 3, Drummond recorded seven offensive rebounds in 21 minutes, making superior athletic plays to dominate the Celtics on the glass.

On one particular play early in the game, Drummond made an incredible athletic play, jumping in front of everyone to snatch a tough rebound before recording an assist on a nice pass. Drummond hasn’t played a lot, but he has played very well in his limited minutes.

With Monroe and Drummond (who combined for 16 offensive rebounds in 60 combined  minutes against Boston) anchoring the paint, Detroit will become one of the league’s best rebounding teams. Drummond will play more once he fully recovers from his back injury and he will create one of the most dominating rebounding tandems with Monroe. If the Pistons can bring back Calderon, make smart moves in the offseason and come together, they can definitely make the playoffs soon.

And then, the Pistons will return to the top of the Eastern Conference hierarchy.